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Real-Time news about Emap (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|broadwood: Not sure of the reason for the early strength today but whilst the Market pondered the likelihood of a full bid for Scot Radio, the price has moved sideways.
Maybe something is starting to clarify their next move - it would only benefit the share price rather than the continued uncertainty.
I predict this will hit £9 this year.|
|sabir123: how high can emap go?. emap's share price is valued very highly relative to it's peers.|
|broadwood: Nice Broker upgrade yesterday - did no harm whatsoever to the share price.|
|tilceo: I'm talking about the book value as reported in the accounts, which is exactly as I say - one tenth of it's share price. Go take a look for yourself if you don't believe me!
If you are telling me that on break-up they could achieve more than the valuation in the books, then I would ask why management is not accurately reflecting market valuations in its accounts. Around 1990 a relative of mine ran a national magazine himself and was engaged in trying to find buyers for it. It was almost impossible to get the supposed brand value. Why? Because someone who might be interested in buying can just copy the format and the content and put it on the shelves themselves. And potential buyers point that out. There's no inherent magic to creating a magazine - there are no trade secrets like Microsoft Windows or Coca Cola. It's there for all to see and anyone to copy, and customers are easy to poach.
If I'd listened to average analyst opinion my whole life I wouldn't have a penny to my name now. Look at what analysts had been saying in the US recently about tech stocks with some analysts advising BUY while privately rubbishing the very same stocks. Valuation of stocks is very subjective, it's very qualitative and much of it is guesstimation. Do you realise that if you change the forward discount rate for example by as little as a fraction of one percent, the resulting valuation of the underlying stock changes by up to +-20% or more?
I would put to you that it is much more likely that the true book value of EMAP is much closer to the reported value in the accounts (one tenth of the current share price) than it is to an analysts sum-of-parts models that inflate brand values. If you want to base your purchase of EMAP based on saying this mag is worth £10m and that mag is worth £5m, and just taking their word for it then it's your funeral but that's not how I plan to approach my own investment.|
|gurp: good informative opinion posts
I got out of emap a year ago but still monitor
surprised to note -ve p/e, but share price-wise it's all on sentiment and suspect that actually things could get worse with reduced personal spending and mags an easy reduction. media/advertising likely to fly on a general upturn but that seems to be forecast further and further away|
|tilceo: I went short EMAP yesterday... based upon my suspicion that printed media (esp magazines and newspapers) are in long-term decline with the advent of the web. Broadband take up over the next few years, will I believe accelerate this consumer trend. Advertising and circulation will both be hit, and the signs are this is already happening. I'm starting to do more of my own advertising on the web for three reasons - 1) its considerably cheaper than print and 2) it can be targetted to the right audience better, 3) it's faster and can be interactive. I'm also buying less mags and papers because I can get the info and entertainment I'm looking for on the web too. Even the travelling public are likely to require less magazines in the future with aircraft installing interactive web screens.
This is not to mention that EMAP's book value is only one tenth of it's share price, so if you broke the company up today and sold off the bare assets (even assuming you can get full book value for the intangibles) then you'd lose 90% of your money straight away. That's a lot of catching up the management has to do, to make £2bn in earnings before my company is tangibly worth the current £2bn price tag. I'm a seller at any price above £6.|
|matta007: Emap looks to me like it will start to climb more rapidly now. The American debacle is in the past and people are beginning to evaluate the company as an essentially anglo-french operation again. Within this sector Emap is a very strong performer (see recent ABC results). Its share price would, however, appear to depend entirely on the analysts predictions of whether ad revenues will increase in UK and Europe. Sentiment seems to be that it will and I would expect emap's share price to go back up (to ten quid ish?) by year end. No stats to back this up but then try and analysis emaps share price movements for the last two years using stats - it just doesn't work. It's one of those stocks people buy on hunches I'm afraid...|
Emap share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange