|Education Development Intl
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Education Dev (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|jon l: Half-year report now out. IMO they have done well to maintain revenue and margins more or less constant after the stellar rise the year before, meanwhile investing in their processes. But what next? The share price is not in freefall but is drifting steadily down for lack of buyers. Who will buy until the new government shows its hand? In normal times this quality operation would do well, but these are not normal times.|
|rockraven: Share price down 32.5% since the start of the year and still sliding.
That means a 48% rise is needed to get back to where it ended 2009.
Despite what directors might have said about the company's ability to survive the imminent government expenditure cuts, the market is surely going to think negatively. So far the new govt has announced only a few cuts in a few areas, but it sounds like ther will be huge cuts to follow.|
|strollingmolby: I see MLO has been the subject of a bid by Pearson, at a premium of ~35-40% on the share price before the bid was announced.|
|bookworm1: Interceptor thats some growth forecast for 2011 of 30%. If brokers are already revising their forecasts upwards before the AGM then it suggests that the Q1 results will at least be on target if not slightly ahead. Applying the same PE ratio that has been used over the last year on a rolling basis would suggest a share price target by the end of 2011 of 250p. That would certainly make these worth hanging onto for the ride.|
|bookworm1: Interesting. Lets see how many follow his lead? He might just be profit taking with a view to buying some more back cheaper or he could be taking his money elsewhere. Who knows. Personally I still think your price target of 200p is achievable but earnings will have to grow to 15.4p so it might take EDD a few months to achieve.
Rereading his article published in Investors Chronicle last March
"My own buying, resulting in a current holding of 3.7 per cent, has contributed to the share price having a great run during the past couple of months. And after the announcement of increased profit expectations, there was further buying by directors, who added to their already significant shareholdings.
The tax charge has to be considered as there are just £4.3m of tax losses to be used in 2009 and they will run out in 2010. Another factor is that the rate of growth will slow from the astonishing 65 per cent, but it still looks as if it should be substantial, especially in relation to the low PE ratio. I find it hard to understand why a company such as EDD in a business so well suited to today's difficult conditions, growing very fast and generating plenty of cash, should be on such a low prospective multiple."
Whilst the companys rate of growth is expected to slow to a more sedate 20-25% the next phase of investment will create plenty of extra capacity.
His support has helped the company build its market capital from £14m to £80m so it may be that some of the institutions will start buying some of this stock now. Nigel certainly gets out and about and by all accounts gets a favourable reception from potentail funders willing to invest.
I suspect that JS is being a bit canny in the short term but long term holding.
Edit: He may have used to money to go back into Vialogy as it has gone up 50% in the last day or two and was one of his shares.|
|melody9999: so Hambro increase by 270,000 and Directors sell 1,000,000+. No change to share price. Any views on the Director sells?
I can only buy 2,500 at present but can sell 10,000 which suggests the MMs a bit short of stock??|
|bookworm1: If we can meet market expectations then we are in for a 77% increase in eps and according to my estimates around £6m in the bank. That should get a bit of attention from the city boys. Seems to tie in with current share price being 12 x eps.
Plus a trebling of the dividend...
However I guess the real question is where is it going to go over the next year. Brokers forecasts are quite cautious with 5% growth next year due to possible concerns about what will happen if we get a change in government. But pre-close trading statement had the following statement:
"Both main political parties are indicating their strong commitment to good quality vocational education and training."|
|interceptor2: 1.7 million shares traded today,
I believe the reason is the bid approach for BPP Holding today from Apollo Group. BPP Holdings trains people for qualifications to become business professional, as accountants, tax practitioners, lawyers, insolvency practitioners, actuaries, financial services professionals, and marketing practitioners to gain qualifications studying with BPP. So not far away from the type of business as EDD.
The bid was a £304.0 million cash offer at £6.20, which would value BPP at a P/E of 18.5, BPP share price jumped 70% from yesterdays closing price £3.65.
I think you know where I'm coming from regarding EDD..................|
|bookworm1: Here is the text from the IC article about EDD:
Education Development (EDD) is my second choice. It is a leading educational quality assurance company, government approved and regulated with UK and international reach and expertise in IT-based product delivery and administration.
In the UK, EDD has over 300 accredited vocational qualifications, 279 specialist awards and approved programmes, 1,873 registered centres, 200,000 candidate registrations a year and over 650 school customers for online assessments. EDD also has a strong and growing position in the larger international market with over 4,500 registered centres across 103 countries and 275,000 candidate registrations a year.
As a result of a recent bullish announcement by EDD, Brewin Dolphin, the company's broker, has increased its pre-tax forecast for 2009 by over 50 per cent to £5.6m with eps 9.4p. Based on a low tax charge as in the past years, EPS of 9.4 at 56.5p would result in a prospective PE ratio of only six. With forecast EPS growth of 65 per cent the resultant PEG is absurdly low at 0.1. The company is also cash-generative with a net cash balance of over £3m at the end of 2008. My own buying, resulting in a current holding of 3.7 per cent, has contributed to the share price having a great run during the past couple of months. And after the announcement of increased profit expectations, there was further buying by directors, who added to their already significant shareholdings.
The tax charge has to be considered as there are just £4.3m of tax losses to be used in 2009 and they will run out in 2010. Another factor is that the rate of growth will slow from the astonishing 65 per cent, but it still looks as if it should be substantial, especially in relation to the low PE ratio. I find it hard to understand why a company such as EDD in a business so well suited to today's difficult conditions, growing very fast and generating plenty of cash, should be on such a low prospective multiple.
Does anyone have a link to the Brewin Dolphin forecast?|
|bookworm1: john after trading sideways since Oct 07 I suspect the recent Trading statement has done a lot to calm any concerns and the share price has seems to have resumed its normal upward trend (which IMO is where it should have been a long time ago). However where it will go over the next 12 months is anyones guess. Certainly this is a very well run little company that is starting to get noticed for all the right reasons; appearing to be quite recession proof and being well balanced between both the corporate and educational sectors as well as home and overseas markets.
But whilst an analysis of the fundamentals demonstrates that the company does what it says it will do if you look at the share price over the last 12 months it has not not totally been able to avoid the influence of market forces despite despite holding up very well in comparison.
So whilst I share your enthusiasm for EDD and welcome the recent (spectacular) improvement in price I am wondering what fundamental or technical improvement is likely to drive the share price even higher when it could just as well consolidate at this price level and trade sideways for another 12 months (going up and down) until the next year end results are delivered.
I would like to be proved wrong but how would you feel if you buy into this share and when all the tipster shareholders get bored and impatient find that the price falls between now and the summer only to rise again on positive interim results?
I would welcome a discussion from anyone on this board about any of the fundamental or technical factors that are likely to drive or influence this share price over the next 12 months.
I did run EDD past JTCod for his opinion and whilst he was quite complimentary about the result he made the following observation that "Growth is only being supported by acquisitions" which I would dearly like to counter but to date have been unable to disprove with any numbers or analysis. My gut tells me that he is wrong and that what he sees as growth funded by acquisition in fact masks a fundamental restuctruring of the cost base that has taken place and is now starting to deliver.|
Education Development share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange