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Real-Time news about Cyberview (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|the analyst: The delay of any type of follow-up announcement is getting ridiculous.
The worst thing is that Cyberview would now have had the Nevada gaming licence in the bag for over a month by now had the offer not been made by IGT. They could now be placing machines inside Vegas casinos.
I suspect it is taking a long time for the directors to negotiate their contracts with IGT after the sale. The sale price undervalues the company by a long long way, so I can only conclude that the whole deal is being set up for the directors to benefit via IGT packages, not shareholders through share price value.|
|the analyst: The recent trading and share price movements may indicate news ahead.
The directors did mention during the AGM that they would be releasing several announcements soon.
The first turned out to be the expected profit warning. Hope the others lined up are a bit more optimistic!|
|the analyst: With respect to share price, though, the ideal scenario for those researching would be to see further falls. How great it would be if the market cap fell to £5m by this time next year, having launched the new product suite successfully and having won a Nevada licence and started putting machines on to Larry Woolfe's (non-exec) gaming floors. Could be a tad optimisitc to hope to buy at that sort of level though, as they will still have well over £10m in the bank by that stage.
Perhaps they are more likely to go bust than not, but at today's cash-burn levels I think they have enough funds for another 5 years. During that time they are having a go at breaking into Vegas, which if successful, could see them with an enterprise value 50-fold higher than today's.|
|the analyst: Give up researching? Why? They still have products that could make them into a company worth hundreds of millions, so they are definitely worth following, even if just as an object-lesson.
I agree, though. Very risky indeed. The most worrying aspect for holders at the moment is that the management do not appear able to make sales. The profit warning indicates that there are no new contracts imminent too. However, the warning was expected and nothing new was mentioned that could not be gathered from the AGM.
For those looking at the possibility of buying in at some stage, though, the interesting time may be after the big product launch, which is due at the G2E in November. I suspect the sales drive will start in earnest in the New Year. That's when the story begins to unfold and we begin to find out whether this will be a big company or whether it just gets swallowed up for its IP.
In many ways CYBV reminds me of VDS - great potential in the technology, but products not quite ready and management unable to make sales. I followed VDS for a long time on the way down and then bought when my research began to show that they had finally got the products, the managementand sales teams coming together. The share price has risen ever since. Maybe that sort of opportunity will appear here too?
Can't lose anything by continuing the research.|
|the analyst: Long-term, the development that could transform cyberview into a multi-hundred million market cap company would be installation of servers and significant numbers of machines onto US casino floors.
Judging by the constant share price fall since floatation, the market appears to think it will not be happenning
I still think they will make some progress in the US, but I don't know if they will make a major impact and I suspect it will take a long time. I would expect machines to begin appearing on casino floors in late 2008 or even 2009.|
|the analyst: Hopefully, the Ladbrokes trading update and the trade shows in October and November will give some insight into how the company is progressing. I expect the interims to be pretty grim and it could be that the share price continues to drift until the company can announce something positive.
Also, thinking of the positive statements that I'm looking for - together these developments would help the company make the move into sustained profitability from recurring revenue (i.e. profit from without looking at contributions from sales of machines and licences):
- Launch of new product suite (trade shows)
- Increased revenue per machine at Ladbrokes
- Possible new order with Ladbrokes if new machine launch proves successful
- Contracts in new geographical regions
- Winning of licences in the US
- Progress with KPIs following slot games introduction onto Ladbrokes machines|
|the analyst: The price continues to drop and it's fascinating to watch as the EV/EBITDA for the next three years has now fallen to 2.8 / 1.5 / 0.5
The enterprise value is now only £7m, so I don't understand why the share buy back is not being persued.
My thoughts are that the arbuthnott profit figures are far too optimisitc and that there is little cohance of them achieving them.
Another point to note, is that the promised announcments mentioned at the AGM have not materialised. The directors said there would be 'a number of announcements in the weeks ahead, with one due next week'. Well, that time has come and gone. This shows to me that either they are having further problems or the directors are being slightly economical with the truth.
What would be nice from a spectators point of view, would be to see the share price drop to the 100-120p level, which would value them at cash levels. This is possible, if, as I imagine, the results are very poor and people pick up on the slow progress being made in South America and Italy. That sort of price could then represent attractive risk/reward levels should the company announce the new products / new licences / further orders that should (hopefully) begin to come through around November.
|the analyst: I'll be interested to see if that 25,000 was a sell or another share buy-back from the company.
If it turns out to be the company buying the shares then the share price is obviously being manipulated to keep it low and thus, allow the conditions for these share buy-backs to take place as is outlined in the original rns.
The downtrend is good news for those sitting in the sidelines though, as the cash in relation to market cap is increasing all the time.|
|the analyst: Yes, in the short-term sales are important to keep the share price from continuing the downtrend. Although it is the sales next year that will make or break the company.
The directors said that they are making further sales around europe and south america (although not on the ladbrokes scale) and that new casino-style games introduced later in the year will improve the drop on the Ladbrokes machines, and hence, the recurring revenue generated from those machines will go up. If the new games are popular and successful, it may even result in further buying from Ladbokes - atfer all, in the betting shops I have looked at there is plenty of scope to install more machines.
The point they were making again and again was that whilst they continue to make sales consistently, the major push until Christmas is toward creating better and more varied gaming offerings, winning more patents and obtaining licences. The big push for sales will be in 2008 where the company will either be tranformed or will die a slow *death (* note that is just my assumption, the directors could talk of nothing but success!).
They mentioned that there will be further announcements next month - whether that means more deals, share buy-backs, director buying or a profit warning, I don't know. In fact, I'm sure they said there was likely to be an announcement next week...|
Cyberview share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange