Cobra Bio-manufacturing Share Discussion Threads

[the_doctor] 30/12/2009 16:12

Hyper - the good ones will be able to raise funds (where needed)

Cobra was an example of one that failed.
I gather it is positioned too much against bigger co.s like Lonza.
ABH on the other hand has sensibly gone for niche areas.

Unfortunate for people like the Dixons who lost a fortune here.
Whether Cobra could ever have done ok under different management, I dont know.

For the last year, the risks have been clearly pointed out at least.
The company has not tried to pretend things have been better than they were.
Hopefully some bailed on the (small) rises.
& hopefully nobody believed the ramps of people like jdb!

[the_doctor] 29/12/2009 09:51

After all those silly comments and accusations... still not man enough to show his face on this thread again.

[the_doctor] 18/12/2009 09:55

Still nothing to add on this one jdb?

"Jdb2005 - 11 Nov'09 - 12:48 - 4443 of 4447
Acknowledge phoney you got this wrong - now you try to gloss over latest news and no doubt telling your masters to short it at 4.5p !!!!
Why? because you think there may only be 10% premium. Get real cowboy."

[alibongo612] 17/12/2009 11:50

So thats it for shareholders 2.25p and absolutely no potential for any recovery of losses through a carried interest going forward.

Thank you Cobra Board and in particular to the former Chairman during whose tenure the share price fell from 150p to this

Small comfort but at least his options are under water and it certainly won't look good on his cv and hopefully he will be VERY embarassed at the golf club

[the_doctor] 16/12/2009 12:00

jdb,

Well, I'm not going to gloat, but you'll see that exactly what I warned you of, seems to be happening.

'Recipharm will be making a mandatory offer for the Cobra Shares not
already held by Recipharm at a price of 2.25 pence per Cobra Share in cash'


This follows the risk of delays that I warned of. Having worked in biotech, I know how easily that can happen.
The comments by myself and the company of what could happen if cash flows were delayed.
The highlighting that CBF would struggle to get further loans and therefore could see significant dilution if they needed more funds.
I also looked at asset values, which suggested there might be no premium, or any successful offer might be at a sharp discount.

Perhaps you'll consider taking back some of your sillier comments.

As said all along, my negative views here were not due to shorting, having a chip on my shoulder or anything like that. I simply gave genuine comments on what I saw - sadly you chose to belittle those sensible comments rather than think about them.

Anyway, bad luck to you and other shareholders. I hope those working at the company wont have too much to worry about over Christmas and the new structure may actually have improved their stability.

[boll] 16/12/2009 11:47

shareholders are indeed fortunate to be rescued following the bid for this struggling company

[the_doctor] 11/11/2009 12:55

'because you think there may only be 10% premium'

that was NOT what I said.
I said I've seen bids of financially struggling go through at 10% of the share price
A 90% discount.

It is not impossible for the Dixons and Sultan to team up and offer to buy your shares for what you'd consider a disappointing price.



Where have I got this wrong? I never suggested another offer couldnt come.
The only one getting things wrong has been wrong


You said there would be no delays - there were
You said there would be no cash issues - they had to desperately raise cash
You said they could easily refinance - they got a loan convertible at a 40% discount!
You ramped it up after the last approach - it came to nothing

Ah, the old 'cant face the truth, so talk about shorters' line again.
There cant possibly be any negatives, so I must be looking to short.

[jdb2005] 11/11/2009 12:48

Acknowledge phoney you got this wrong - now you try to gloss over latest news and no doubt telling your masters to short it at 4.5p !!!!

Why? because you think there may only be 10% premium. Get real cowboy.

[the_doctor] 11/11/2009 11:20

'so you do acknowledge that Cobra & its bio-manufacturing facilities are worth x millions'

Yes, of course. However, at a market cap of £2m and £1m debt bank loans, is it worth over £3m? Perhaps not

'A few months ago you were claiming they were wortless and would go into administration '

Not once did I say it was worthless.
I did say that any delays and it could go into administration.
There were delays and without Sultan's loan, they'd be bust.
The loan when converted, could cause 40% dilution - that was the price of survival and they still havent found a longer-term solution yet.

'Look back and you wil see my contrary views when I decided to back their new CEO & mgt team'

Yes and what has happened since? Little more than a potentially very dilutive termporary financing and a possible offer.


Re the new CEO, I said that with low equity value and existing loans, he had little room to manoevre. That remains the case.

I suspect the long term solution could be delisting and/or buyout

My point was really that the terms may not be good. This would IMO be the time to get out.
I've seen bids be accepted at 10% of the prior starting price!

But to finish, please note that I've never said Cobra cant succeed, or that a decent bid wont come in. I just appreciate the challenges/issues.

[jdb2005] 11/11/2009 11:10

Phoney - so you do acknowledge that Cobra & its bio-manufacturing facilities are worth x millions. A few months ago you were claiming they were worthless and would go into administration !!

Look back and you wil see my contrary views when I decided to back their new CEO & mgt team.

[the_doctor] 11/11/2009 11:08

'I can see PYC following a similar chart pattern'

The approaches here have been because it has failed.
Hugely dilutive fundraising just to survive.
Long-term financing solution not yet sorted.

I'm not sure you want this pattern??

[ny boy] 11/11/2009 11:03

I can see PYC following a similar chart pattern. Well done all holding here still!

[the_doctor] 11/11/2009 10:45

does making a silly 'blue-*rsed fly' comment help you to ignore the truths I posted??

'CBF are only going to change hands if Dixons want to cash in their chips'

so could be a stalemate then, with the approach coming to nothing?


The Dixon's holding would drop to 26% if/when Sultan converts.


Is there any reason why Sultan couldnt agree to join with the Dixons and make a bid?
Between them they'd have 66%.
Taking it private would remove needless listing costs.

What's to stop them saying
a) we're going private
b) we're offering something like 2-4p per share for anyone wanting to sell now.

[jdb2005] 11/11/2009 10:38

Phoney - Your comments are as expected from someone who flits around these boards like a blue-*rsed fly, trying to convince yourself that you have not wasted your education entirely.

CBF are only going to change hands if Dixons want to cash in their chips.
Therefore if the latest suitor wants bio-manufacturing facilities they will have to do better than the last bid.

[jdb2005] 11/11/2009 10:06

Ali - sour grapes but never mind another opp. may come your way.

Look at SLN VIY & MDX threads and you will get better handle on your phoney friend.

[alibongo612] 11/11/2009 09:57

Having observed your spat on this BB , as a neutral and in my opinion the_doctor clearly demonstrates a much greater understanding of business generally and of this business in particular.Your gloating as a result of an share price increase due to a possible bid may boost your own ego however it does nothing to persuade observers that you called it correctly

[jdb2005] 11/11/2009 09:41

Phoney - 2.5p to 5p = 100% return on 6 months investment !!!

Cobra has sufficient contracts to achieve breakeven at year end and virtually a new plant at Oxford (where it planned to run the Genvec contract) that is an attractive proposition for would be suitors.

Granted they did have a cashflow problem earlier but that is behind them now.

Seems like you sadly lack any operational experience and insight into bio-manufacturing. Perhaps you need to drop the phoney "doctor" label and enrol on a suitable retraining programme with Alan Sugar's team.

[the_doctor] 11/11/2009 09:28

Cobra needed to borrow funds just to survive.

THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED

'Trading conditions have resulted in a delay in the achievement of some contract signatures and Cobra continues to pursue alternative funding arrangements to meet the resulting working capital shortfall'

Sultan has convertible loans/options that would result in 40% more stock in issue.
That's just for short-term financing!!

I warned that small delays could leave them desperate for cash and that they'd struggle to get it on decent terms
But I suppose you consider 40% dilution irrelevant!?

'Progress also continues to be made with a number of interested parties regarding potential interim and longer term financing and licensing arrangements'

This has possibly resulted in the offer.

[jdb2005] 11/11/2009 08:51

Phoney I have to laugh at your complete ignorance.

Still for those who have greater insight into how many contracts are up for grabs in the bio-manufacturing market you reap rewards from dd.

This is just the start of what could turn out to be a contested bid for Cobra. I can see 6p within next 2/3 weeks - Now being quoted 5.15p to buy 50k.

Of course phoney signed its death cert. last May having written off the company as unviable.

[the_doctor] 11/11/2009 07:15

'Possible Offer

The Board of Cobra announces that it is in discussions which may or may not lead to an offer being made for the Company.'


Better luck with it this time then holders
Could be Sultan, Dixons or a MBO then?

I probably wouldnt get too excited if I were you!

[alibongo612] 03/10/2009 17:07

I'm sure the previous Chairman who imo brought us to this sorry state , hasn't lost a wink of sleep

[the_doctor] 03/10/2009 14:48

Sultan's loan is

1) secured against assets (assuming some value remaining after other loans)

'The Convertible Loan Notes will be secured by way of a fixed and floating charge over the Company's assets. This security will rank behind the security given to the National Westminster Bank Plc'

2) convertible at 1p - which gives them a strong chance of a profit if the co. was sold.

It would be interesting to know if Sultan was behind the earlier approach?

The company may well, and probably should, delist after the GM to save cash.