Close European Accelerated Fund Share Discussion Threads

[ianbrewster] 23/2/2011 11:44

Bid now up to 69.5p, the current redemption price. Must show some expectation of value in the Icelandic positions.

[praipus] 23/1/2011 08:35

Constituents


Do you assign probability on gut feel or do you utilise any form of Quantative Analysis?

[stemis] 23/1/2011 07:28

Just the STOXX 50 would have to fall a long way to affect the payout. Its not impossible but it seems a little unlikely.

[praipus] 22/1/2011 18:37

"No real downside from here though" fascinating you seem very confident. whilst I'm a content holder I wouldnt say I'm a confident one.

What factors do you attribute your oonfidence in CEAF to?

[stemis] 22/1/2011 07:42

The market seems to be assuming Glitnir debt is worthless. Think we might get 20p in the £, maybe more. Might get something from Kaupthing as well. Then again maybe we'll get nowt. No real downside from here though.

[praipus] 20/1/2011 20:52

Whats your take on the debt?

[stemis] 20/1/2011 19:44

Yes I am a holder but only recently. No I'm not hedged against STOXX 50. It would take a pretty big fall to make any difference now.

[praipus] 19/1/2011 18:48

Thanks SteMis complicated NAV statement unravelled.

Are you a holder here? Have you been in long? Are you hedged in anyway? Some STOXX 50 PUT's perhaps?

[stemis] 13/1/2011 13:40

With the STOXX 50 at over 2900 it seems pretty inconceivable that it will fall below 1651.49 by 26 July 2011. So at the current price (67.5p) that's 2.86% return in 6 months - 5.7% annualised. Not fantastic but better than the building society, lol.

If Glitner pay out 40% however, the redemption moves up to 75.7p which is a 12% return in 6 months or 24% annualised.

[praipus] 10/12/2010 15:25

I assume Weiss bought MF Global UK Limited's stock.

[praipus] 10/12/2010 10:20

ETF for Dow Jones Eurostoxx 50

[praipus] 10/12/2010 10:06

Tracking Weiss and the arbitragers holdings

[hywel] 08/12/2010 22:29

Weiss Asset Management must be expecting something back from the Icelandic banks, they're up from a holding of 5.75% on 4th Oct to 15.9% today. They bought about 5% off Premier Fund Managers Ltd.

[mangal] 01/12/2010 18:05

Interesting to see that we may well get back something from Kaupthing Bank, which now "accepts GBP6,000,000 of the claim, being the nominal value of the Debt Security."
However, the Bank may not pay the the full GBP6,000,000 or, indeed, anything at all.

[ianbrewster] 05/10/2010 10:54

yes - not much else to to apart for waiting to July next year.

I make the expected increase to redemption to be 4.1% ie 5.1% pa.

Not sure what the chances of a payout from Iceland are, but I can't see Weiss buying more for only a 4% gain.

[hywel] 04/10/2010 23:49

Increase in Weiss Asset Management's holding today, 2,274,500 now, an increase of 180,500 from their last announcement on 21st May.

Just keeping the board alive.

[ianbrewster] 04/8/2010 10:01

No - the lowest was 1817 in early March this year

[stemis] 04/8/2010 09:50

I take it, so far, the Dow Jones EuroStoxx 50 has not closed at 1,651 or lower during the period?

[stemis] 04/8/2010 09:41

Current spread is 64-60.5p

[ianbrewster] 27/7/2010 10:57

Now 1 year left - redeems 26-7-11

Assuming that STOXX-50 stays above 1651 (40% down on today), then this will pay out at least 69.5p (assuming no more defaults) giving around 11.5% over the year.

If STOXX-50 can get above 3303, then returns will improve e.g. approx 20% at 3353.

If anything comes back from Glitnir and Kaupthing, then that is a bonus.

[ianbrewster] 30/6/2010 09:59

CED would up recently and transferred entitlement to similar Icelandic instruments to a new company.

Suggestion on the CED thread that Weiss are interested in buying it out. Must suggest that there is some value and hence some money to come back to boost CEAF value on windup in just over a year.

[ianbrewster] 21/1/2010 16:33

Yes - and will be at least 69.5p barring a real rout.

Not sure if I am going to bank on anything coming back from Iceland though

[davebowler] 21/1/2010 15:16

So if the Eurostoxx 50 level at maturity is 3,400 -up by 15% over 18months- payout is 79.5p hmmm.

[ianbrewster] 06/1/2010 20:06

Good to have my assesment confirmed!

[mangal] 06/1/2010 19:03

Yes, a good safe one; no downside at all unless STOXX-50 drops below 1700. & if 3303 is breached then this will really motor. Done well since I bought last April - almost doubled !