|You won't get anything in the post usually.
Nor is it easy to act on it unless shares/trust interest in your name directly as nominees have no clue about the trust thing.
The bids are very low anyway so not worth it.
The trusts now have enough CASH to pay a first distribution of the following:
Whether that is what is paid out (and when you get it) are still up for debate.
You should call John Le Prevost at Anson to find out for yourself what is happening and when.|
|Hi guys where can I find these recent bids from Southey and Tavira? Do you get a letter as I can not see them on the Anson website. Cheers|
|To be honest I've lost any feel for what these are worth but I'm assuming any bidder is expecting to make a decent turn on their offer so I'll just stick in and let it all play out.|
|Another offer on the table - via HL this pm.
Offer for your Interests in the CEAF 2011 Defaulting Note Trust
Southey Capital Ltd has made an Offer to all holders of the Trust to acquire their interests in the Trust for a price of 5p per Interest.
Any instruction to accept the Offer must be received by noon on Wednesday 29 June 2016. If no instruction is received by this time you will retain your holding of interests in the Trust.
Southey obviously think they are worth more, but a premium to the initial cash payout.|
|Thanks erstwhile2 ok so not the next potential CED2,JAC,CEAF etc yet...|
|Not sure if want to own a db swap counterparty product when db etc failing is what you're hedging. Of course they are collateral margined but I recall there being something like a 10% intraday uncovered move before they have to re-post. I haven't dug out or looked at any documentation though|
|Cash and loan notes are good. Loan notes can be cashed in at anytime, just a vehicle to manage tax.
erstwhile2, if you have a moment could you look at ETF XS7S and comment on its risks in terms of counterparty and a holder getting their money back in a further bank melt down. TIA.|
|Found this on the Anson website
It appears that
a) the Iclandic government has slapped a tax on our payments (approximately 24% for Glitnir and 14.2% for Kaupthing) reducing claim to 22p / share
b) both Glitnir & Kaupthing are settling in a mix of cash / shares / loan notes
Bottom line is that there will soon be a cash payment of between 3 and 3.5 p and we will have to wait even longer till there is some market for the shares / notes|
|Both Kaupthing and Glitnir have now made cash payments to creditors, yet nothing is appearing on the anson (our trustee) website about what that means for CEAF, CED2 and JAC shareholders. I spoke to them and am concerned that they are not on the ball and may lose their entitlements to their share of the distributions, they don't even have custody arrangements for some of the securities being allocated as part of the composition arrangements.
If you would also like to put some pressure on them to get on the case, the relevant person is Luke Freeman on 01481 722260, and the guy who runs Anson is John Le Prevost (same number I think)
Or you can email them on email@example.com
For what it's worth, I estimate the payments, should anson deal with it properly) to be of the order of:
Which are of course miles higher than what the distressed HF brokers were bidding for our trust entitlements. This is based on recovery of 30% for Glitnir and 25% for Kaupthing, but I do not have sight of what the actual distributions are. (Anson have this but refuse to release it to me)|
|Yes, I agree.
That doesn't sound generous and I'm presuming Tavira are expecting to make a decent profit on the purchase so I'll hang in there. It's all upside to me. The CEAF purchase was a short term trade, the cost more than covered by liquidation proceeds, giving me a free ride on the CEAF default notes.|
|Totally terrible offer.
It equates to valuing the Glitnir interest at 14% of face and the Kaupthing at 11% of face (prior to the 6-10% admin fees which would reduce this further). This is almost exactly 50% of where these banks' claims trade in the secondary, illiquid though it may be.
I suppose someone might want to just give up and hand over their interest but this would be economically irrational. In time, like within 2-3 years, I reckon you'll get over 6p net.|
|Well - almost 2 years later and here we are again.
This time the offer is 3.3p as Noel would say - Deal or No Deal
Via H-L today.
Anson registrars comments “In September 2010 when Glitnir was declared insolvent its assets were only ISK783 billion but its liabilities were ISK2,838 billion or put another way, its assets were only 27% of the face value of its liabilities. Kaupthing’s situation was almost identical in values and percentage.
“These facts suggest that nearer to 8 pence per Share was the potential maximum outcome of administration as 8p is 27% of 29.79 pence being the loss on maturity of CEAF’s Shares occasioned by the two banks defaulting.” (Source: Letter to Interest holders, 13 March 2015)
Offer for your Interests in the CEAF Defaulting Note Trust
We have been informed by Anson Registrars Limited that Tavira Securities Limited has made an Offer to all holders of the Trust to acquire their interests in the trust for a price of 3.3p per interest.
An administration fee will be charged by Anson Registrars on the final proceeds of the Offer if the Offer is successful. This administration fee is charged as follows:
£10 per holder owning up to 2,999 interests
£20 per holder owning between 3,000 and 4,999 interests
£30 per holder owning between 5,000 and 9,999 interests
£50 per holder owning between 10,000 and 49,999 interests
£100 per holder owning between 50,000 and 100,000 interests
£200 per holder owning over 100,000 interests.
Please note, the Offer is conditional upon Tavira Securities receiving acceptances for at least 10 million interests (or any lower figure negotiated with Tavira). The Offer is also conditional upon the economic prospects of Glitnir & Kaupthing Banks not deteriorating between now and when such offer can be settled.|
|Its not Tullet, it is US hedge funds instructing Tullett. Weiss tried it at around 2p shortly after the windup date. Secondary bids on the claims were around 25% or more last time I checked, and that assumed a 15% IRR per market conventions. Iceland now has a new Government which looks to want to negotiate with foreign claim holders - that's the biggest sticking point on what the recovery will be, if anything, and when.
5.25p is just an effort to sweep up frustrated trust beneficiaries aka old shareholders of CEAF, or JAC or whatever. I dont think it makes sense, but I bet some take it up. If any of those hedgies are reading, try a 30% recovery bid and get the trustees/CloseFM to write to ex shareholders. They can't advise us, of course, but their very association in the tender/invitation to treat would speak volumes.|
|It seems a long time since Aug 11!!
The total accepted by the banks is:
2,101,119,375 ISK (954,639,375 Glitner ; 1,146,480,000 Kaupthing)
or 11,346,045 GBP @ 0.0054
Shares in issue was 39,550,000 - so 28.7p per share
TP are offering 5.25 - so approx 18% recovery. (Can someone confirm my calcs?)
TP obviously think that it will be more; but how much more, and when?|
|I must admit I'd forgotten all about this but I've now received amessage from my s/b
"Following the Compulsory Redemption of all Cell Shares held in July 2011 and the issue of Defaulting Notes in CEAF 2011 in the ratio of one Note per Participating Share in Close European Accelerated Fund Limited, held prior to redemption, we have been advised that Tullett Prebon, on behalf of their clients, would like to purchase the outstanding Defaulting Notes CEAF 2011 of approximately 5.25 pence per Note held."
Is there anyone still left around and does anyone have any views on this? On the basis that Tullett Prebon must think there is decent value at 5.25p I'm minded to hold.|
|The full 69.5p/share was credited to my account yesterday.|
|Both banks have already defaulted of course.
Recovery rates may be 10-25% area, maybe in 2014-2018, and likely via re-equitisation of creditors claims somehow.
The two notes held by CEAF will likely be placed in a guernsey trust for the benefit of shareholders on CEAF register (a la CED).|
Interesting question I recon 20% chance of both defaulting.
What do you recon?|
|What do people here reckon the chances of Glitnir Banki and Kaupthing Bank defaulting?
We're getting 69.5p if they both do and 100p if neither do.|
|Weiss trimming a few
|Weiss holding up through 25%
|Bid now up to 69.5p, the current redemption price. Must show some expectation of value in the Icelandic positions.|
Do you assign probability on gut feel or do you utilise any form of Quantative Analysis?|