Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Caza Oil & Gas LSE:CAZA London Ordinary Share CA1498011024 COM NPV (CDI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 0.31p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0.00 05:00:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 6.8 -3.5 -0.7 - 30.21

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Date Time Title Posts
26/11/201610:18CAZA THE BONE SPRING13,345.00
04/4/201613:48CAZA Permian Basin6,627.00
22/7/201415:38Zak Mir says to SPECULATIVE BUY in Caza Oil & Gas (CAZA)1.00
03/7/201408:01Malcolm Graham-Wood, bullish on Caza Oil & Gas Inc live on TIPTV -
27/5/201409:39CAZA - An Oil King in the making605.00

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DateSubject
19/5/2015
12:43
thetoonarmy2: Todays updated note from Cenkos. Caza Oil & Gas Inc 19/5/2015 Cenkos Q1 2015 Results The Company announced Q1 results to March 2015 last week, reporting revenues of $3.37m (Q1’14: $4.59m). Caza incurred a net loss of $1.27m for the period compared to a net loss of $1.45m during Q1’14. The Company had cash of $6.05m as at 31 March 2015. Q1 Production rose 34% to an average of 917boepd year on year. (Q1’14 685boepd). Revenue dipped (like most across the sector) on the back of the fall in commodity prices, with activity scaled back until prices recover. That said, the company had multiple well successes during the period which contributed to the material lift in production. The company has also managed to rebalance the portfolio in favour of oil (and NGL), with 89% of production now oil/NGL relative to 73% in Q1’14, which has partially mitigated the fall in revenue. It is clear that Caza trades at a substantial discount to RENAV, which we believe will unwind upon further success across the core Bone Spring play and in the trend of sector sentiment turning. However, this discount may take longer to unwind whilst activity levels are low, and oil prices remain materially below that seen even six months ago. That said, Caza do not need to find a farm-out partner in order to carry on activity, and are in control of their destiny due to most of the portfolio held by production. The company has sufficient cash to meet near term plans, and we are optimistic that oil prices will recover, thus allowing Caza to ramp up production and activity across the prolific Bone Spring play. At the current time, Caza fails to meet certain financial covenants around the $50m Apollo debt facility, although waivers have been received to suspend these covenants until September ‘15. Caza are actively exploring financing alternatives in order that it can meet these covenants in the coming months. We have a price target of 11p and have downgraded to a HOLD until a resolution over the Apollo facility covenants is reached. Key points  Revenue of $3.37m (Q1'14: $4.59m)  Post tax loss of $(1.27m) (Q1’14: $(1.45m))  Cash of $6.05m (Q1’14: $5.08m)  Production in Q1’15 of 917boepd (Q1’14 685boepd)  Multiple successes across prolific Bone Spring play in New Mexico Oil & Gas 2. Outlook Near term activity will continue to focus upon the Bone Spring assets in New Mexico. This is a prolific stacked play that has huge upside potential for Caza. With multiple productive intervals within each lease (and well), the play offers significant upside to Caza and we believe that there is potential opportunity for the production base to grow substantially in the event of further success. Summary Caza has seen production rise materially year-on-year, which is reflective of the strong run of success experienced in 2014. However, the precipitous fall in WTI crude over the last year (despite the rise over the last month) led management to curtail activity across the portfolio, so as to be able to increase shareholder returns once the oil price recovers. The recent rise in prices makes a vast improvement to the economics of the Caza wells (given the low entry costs making for a lower breakeven price), and we believe that this coupled with the concomitant fall in service costs across the US should improve economics further. The Bone Spring is a far more attractive play due to the stacked horizons, and we feel offers far more upside than other plays. The uplift in production is hugely encouraging, and we would anticipate that this should continue with future success across the portfolio, although with the development programme slowed down this will grow at a slower rate. With current cash of c$6m, we believe that the company is able to meet all short term commitments. The current price is underpinned by production, and near term development assets, (less net debt) which we value at 11p/sh (risked). We would anticipate that a sustained rally in commodity prices will trigger a turn in sector sentiment, and newsflow on further well success could lift the share price. However, with a waiver received (until September’15) to suspend any breach of financial covenants on the $50m, Apollo facility, we see the debt burden as casting a shadow over the activities elsewhere. We believe that Caza should be able to source alternative financing in order to maintain covenants, although this will provide a drag on the share price until this issue is resolved in the coming months. Consequently we move to downgrade our recommendation to a HOLD .
26/2/2015
14:59
pavey ark: Toon ,just the time to be away, hopefully when you come back spring will have sprung and we will have the green shoots of recovery in the the oil price and the Caza share price. At our place in Ambleside this week and its just like Barbados!!! On a less surreal note for us UK bound punters; I wonder if the opportunity exists for the likes of Caza to get a deal on say three wells drilled at MRE or Endurance to get three wells drilled at Broadcaster,one after another but no frac and no completion. If things slow right down I am guessing we could see drilling cost coming down considerably. For a comparatively small outlay you could have wells drilled and ready to frac on any upturn. For not much more than a million dollars Caza could participate in the drilling of a couple of wells at these locations. I did read somewhere that companies were leaving drilled wells uncompleted and Caza may be doing the same at Lennox.
27/12/2014
18:30
doughty9: Best wishes to everyone and thanks for the many great contributions this year. I am finding Caza's low valuation somewhat overdone. With a bit of time on my hands this holiday season I have been taking a closer look at the Corporate Valuations and Corporate Transactions tables on pages 23 and 24 of the Oil Barrel presentation 2/12/14. In the Corporate Valuation table, Caza is compared to 6 Co's (Permian?) all with a market caps in excess of $1 billion, based on stock prices at 28/11/14. At the time Caza's share price was about 10p, which is not massively different from today's 8.625p. IMO the table demonstrates that even though we have experienced a large market correction of oil company valuations due to the POO, there is still currently a large relative undervaluation of Caza when it is compared to the valuation measures of production, net acres and proven reserves for the 6 Co's listed in the presentation. I am open to being proved wrong if someone has more up to date verifiable data. The valuation data, total enterprise value (TEV) and market caps are summarised in the table below, and I have included the ratio of each valuation measure for Caza compared to the mean for the 6 Co's in the far right column. If Caza had similar valuations of unit production, unit net acres and unit proven reserves then ratios nearer to 1 would be expected in this column. Caza / Mean of 6 Co's. / Ratio of Caza to 6 Co's Market cap $ millions. 38.8 / 4,014 TEV $ millions. 84.8 / 5,013 $ / Boepd Production. 69.3k / 153k / 0.45 $ / Net Acres. 5.2k / 30k / 0.17 $ / Boe Proven Reserves 18.6 / 33.5 / 0.56 Mean Valuation Ratio (for production, net acres, reserves) of Caza compared to the 6 Co's = 0.39 The ratios given for Caza in the above table are all significantly less than 1, with the mean ratio for all three valuation measures being 0.39. Even the worst performing of the 6 Co's (Laredo Petroleum) is valued at a much higher mean ratio of 0.89! The comparison with 6 Co's may not be statistically representative but it's the only detailed data given. I have simplistically looked at what we could expect with target ratios of nearer to 1 for the valuation measures ie. similar valuations of unit production, and unit proven reserves. The apparent under valuation of Caza might be ascribed to market perceptions etc. like uncertainties over finance, current average production rates (has Q4 average production fallen below the 1210 Boe/d for Q3?), or the high debt to market cap ratio etc. Assuming we are maintaining average production at Q3 levels I have looked at what would happen if Caza were to have a similar ratio of TEV (including debt) to market cap. On 28/11/14 the TEV of the 6 co's is 24.9% greater than the Market Cap. On 28/11/14 the TEV of Caza is 118.6% greater than the Market Cap. The % difference, or % debt, for Caza is inflated by the low current sp, but looks excessive anyway given that the valuation ratios of Caza to the 6 Co's for production, net acres and proven reserves are so much less than unity, ranging from 0.56 down to 0.17 with an average of 0.39. Assuming the same 24.9% debt for Caza would suggest a TEV of $180 million. The effect of this would be to increase the mean valuation ratio of Caza to the 6 Co's to 0.85 (approaching that for the worst performing of the 6 Co's, Laredo Petroleum). The resulting mean valuation ratio would then be comprised of :- $ / Boepd Production ratio becomes 0.97 $ / Net acres ratio becomes 0.37 $ / Boe Proven Reserve ratio becomes 1.20 In other words for the same 24.9% debt, Caza's valuation ratio for both production and proven reserves would be roughly at unity in line with that for the 6 Co's, whilst the valuation ratio for net acres still remains much lower at 0.37. The value of net acres (with CWEI) has yet to be recognised by the market. Caza at a TEV of $180 million ($45 million debt) would suggest a market cap of £84 million or an share price of 35p. Clearly, Caza has a much smaller market cap than that of the comparison sample of 6 Co's (all over $1 billion), but I am not convinced that the undervaluation is simply because of Caza's small size and production rate. There are small producers in the list of Corporate Transactions on page 23 of the presentation, in valuation ranges not greatly dissimilar to those for larger companies. A recent example on 21/7/14, Diamondback Energy assets (2,173 Boepd production / 13k net acres / 5.2million Boe proven reserves) went for $247k/Boepd production, $41k/net acre, and $103/Boe proven reserves!! Of course things have moved on since July this year and we may not have seen the full impact of the drop in POO on absolute valuations, but comparative valuations strongly suggest that Caza is very undervalued. The share price of the 6 Co's in the comparison sample may have declined since the end of November, but then so has Caza's, and it's a reasonable assumption that the comparison in the table above still holds good. Market perceptions of Caza can change quickly, but Caza may need to demonstrate progress on average production and finance before the value of its increased acreage gets better recognition. Food for thought on Moneybox radio 4 today – a financial advisor was very excited about oil. He said that the sell-off in oil is a once in a decade experience, extremely rare, but what always follows is a monster rally. Catch the low.
03/12/2014
09:53
dynamohum: if one can get over the pain of Caza share price the world order is being redefined again. I could wax lyrical but would detract from the thread core, the wellbeing and future wealth of Caza and its shareholders Http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/as-oil-prices-plunge-wide-ranging-effects-for-consumers-and-the-global-economy/2014/12/01/904984b2-7971-11e4-9a27-6fdbc612bff8_story.html
30/11/2014
19:51
pavey ark: Looks like the oil price took a major hit today but I don't know if this is Sunday trading or the real thing. Even though Caza are hedged at this stage I thought it about time I took a look at the impact of very low oil prices. As I have said repeatedly, one cannot look a the effects on Caza without considering the impact on ALL oil producers and the wider economy but lets stick to Caza for now. All of my figures are open to question and debate. The first thing that struck me was the oil price Caza got in the Q3: $83. If you look at the average wti price over that period it's closer to $95/$96. The large difference was due to pipeline issues and I expect the difference to return to a few dollars quite soon. In the same quarter in 2013 the price received was $104.5 which was very close to the wti average for the period. If the wti price drops to $60 where are we ? MF was confident (14th Nov) "Caza believes these characteristics provide an opportunity to achieve acceptable IRRs at commodity prices that are much lower than those that currently exist." (price 14th Nov was about $75) It doesn't help that Caza lumps oil and NGLs together. I'm going to take the OCD production figures are for barrels of oil at the well head and the gas figure is for "wet" gas. In MR , Broadcaster, CR, WC etc the oil gas ratio is more than 80:20 Gramma is the exception but 80:20 is probably close enough. If oil falls to $60 I am going to assume that Caza gets $55 ( I don't expect $60 oil for long and if it did persist I'd expect the pipeline issues to disappear and the $55 figure to go up) Caza have pointed out in detail how they can get over $6 from wet gas and although the gas price is now higher the NGL prices must be lower so I'm putting this in at $5. These figures give a combined price of $50/ boe to Caza with oil at $60 with production costs at $13 this gives a net back of $37 to Caza The reason the net back has only fallen by $13 in my calculations is my use of a higher oil gas ratio (now that the Texas wells have gone ?)and the large price differential has been reduced in my projections. Obviously a net back of $37 isn't great but if my calculations are correct it is good enough and certainly better than most other oil companies. During these turbulent times Caza would certainly be nowhere near the list of endangered companies. At this cash back Caza would require to produce c. 800 boed to meet running expenses and interest payments AND this does not take any account of hedging gains. NB $60 is equivalent to $40 oil twenty years ago with a 2% inflation and I suspect inflation has been greater than this. NB $60 oil (long term)will have Putin arming the warheads, riots in South America ,instability in the middle east and a massive reduction in exploration investment worldwide. You may not even care about the Caza share price !! Hope I've not pressed the wrong calculator button bit I'd like to hear from anyone who has spotted it.
27/11/2014
17:33
pavey ark: It may come as a bit of a surprise to some but the current news flow is about oil production/price and is rather fundamental to an oil company. At the beginning of October the WTI price was $90 and Caza 's share price was c. 20p. In two months the oil price has dropped to c $70 and Caza's share price to 12p. Even ignoring the hedging contracts in place the management has said: "Caza believes these characteristics provide an opportunity to achieve acceptable IRRs at commodity prices that are much lower than those that currently exist." Caza is a tight oil producer and not an oil shale producer and is operating in the Permian Basin. This oil price squeeze has gone on for only two months and whoever is behind it could not expect to achieve their aims in such a short time. Only an idiot would look at Caza's cost structure, freeze it, and then compare it with their income from a falling oil price. By virtue of a number of obvious factors Caza is in a position to continue drilling and selling oil at a profit while other companies cut production or go out of business. Any reduction of output from these less well placed companies must reduce royalty payments, drilling costs and pipeline congestion AND eventually result in an increase in the oil price. I'm certainly not saying that a falling oil price is good for Caza nor that the Management would not want it back above $90 but it is not all bad new. Some of you may have noticed that I don't trade this share and the daily share price is of a lot less importance to me than the fundamentals of the company and the ultimate value.
06/11/2014
10:01
pavey ark: Couple of points on the Athlon deal (above). The final date of the deal was around the end of September so the oil price fall would not be fully factored in but I do agree that large companies can look past short term variations (if that is what we have ?) The main point for me is that this deal was at a premium of 25% to the closing price of the Athlon shares. I do appreciate that there could have been a rise in the Athlon share price prior to the deal being finalised but here is some comparison with the Caza share price. If we assume that 30000 boed is close to 20 times Caza's current production and 140000 acres 28 times the Caza acreage I'm going to value Athlon at 24 times Caza which doesn't really take in the rise in production due and the potential acreage increase. This values Caza at $295m less debt gives $250m With 285m shares (fully diluted)and $1.6/£ You get 55p/share Almost four times the current share price NOT a 25% premium.
18/9/2014
12:59
zulu88: CAZA share price target 62p Takeover of CAZA next year at about 100p / share seems a reasonable prediction. GLA
16/9/2014
16:55
unconscious: CAZA share price seems to have well and truly stagnated at the moment after the big rise earlier in the year. The hot money seems to have moved on for now and the likes of LGO, AEX, SOLO etc to name just a few are the type of news flow to watch out for every morning at 7am. Why lock your money up in shares that are treading water when there are some fantastic trading opportunities out there right now for those that can read an RNS and chart resistance points.
22/8/2014
23:24
arseaboutface: Sorry guys, going to have to respectfully disagree with manipulation (on a large scale) theory, or PA's theory of selling by those who never owned the shares, as a reason for the depressed (to our minds) share price. Despite JOT one of our largest investors, spelling out in black and white in their end of July factsheet, some seem bent on looking elsewhere for a reason. I am not saying they are the only seller, but we know for a fact that they have reduced their holding from 16,400,000 shares at the end of June 2014 to 11.750,000 by 28th July 2014, when it was RNS'd. That is 4,650,000 shares shed by JOT alone, in something like 20 trading days. That pattern of selling in blocks of 20, 30, 50 &100k has been clear to see during that period. We know they have sold, because they have told us that CAZA had outperformed their fund in that period. As at end of Apr 2014 their 16.4 million shares equated to 4.8% of their fund total, (then valued at £30million), which works out to 8.8p a share. At the end of June 2014, the same 16.4 million shares equated to 13.2% of their fund (then valued at £24.2 million) or £3,194,000 or 19.47p per share. CAZA now amounted to more than the 10% limit for any one holding within the fund, hence the trimming. [Interesting here (to me) that despite CAZA's value within the fund rising from £1.44 mill to £3.2mill in two months, the fund as a whole was valued at £5.8mill less at £24.2 from £30mill in the same two month period. Clearly CAZA's 'significant outperformance' (their words) was matched by the rest of the fund's underperformance, explaining why as a percentage of fund total, CAZA went from 4.8 to 13.2%. Truly trimming the flowers to let the weeds flourish. Probably explains why the fund was down -12% year on year as at the last statement Feb 2014]. Draw your own conclusions... Anyways...this trimming left JOT with a CAZA holding still representing 9.1% of their fund at end July 2014. In this (July) statement JOT quote CAZA as their 'top conviction idea' with 'considerable rerating potential'. Now if that is what they believe, then a holding of 9.1% (£2.2mill at current fund valuation of £24.2mill) of fund value does not allow for a lot of growing room in the share price. Indeed, if the rest of their fund remained unchanged then a rise in CAZA's share price to c.20.6p x 11.750,000 would push them back over their desired maximum of 10%!! A fall in valuation of the rest of the fund could push CAZA above 10% without it even increasing its share price! My guess is, and it is only that, because of this, they have continued selling from the RNS'd holding of 11,750,000. We have already seen a recent share price at 25p, (and many of us expect more in the next few months) this would limit their max holding to c.9,680,000 to remain below 10% (assuming rest of fund value remained unchanged). Anyway, I'm sure you get my point by now... Again, JOT may not be the only seller. But certainly, a similar selling pattern has remained fairly consistent since their sell off began. If we take today as an example, taking the buys and sells shown at face vaue(as a guide) approx 90% of the 700,000 sells shown was composed of 40, 50, 100 & 150k chunks... desperate pi? wouldn't have thought so. We may never know. Next months JOT statement should show if they have reduced further or not. Hope I havn't bored everyone too much... sincerely hope everyone has a safe and happy BH weekend. caveat. All figs. are approx. and there is some rounding up, and possibly the odd fat-finger faux pas, please forgive me :)
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