Brixton Share Discussion Threads

[sportbilly1976] 05/6/2009 09:11

so it has been 2 weeks so far since the initial offer news broke with BXTN entering into preliminary discussions with a small number of parties, yet no update as of yet...


how long do people think it will be before we hear something concrete?

[explorer88] 04/6/2009 16:37

thanks mad

cup and handle? that reminds me ... it's time for tea ;-)

[madasafishman] 04/6/2009 16:13

exp88
you have mail...some easy reading for you :-)

if i was a chartist and this was no takeover scenario the chart looks like it could
step up rapid from here nice curve bottom and cup and handle shape

[explorer88] 04/6/2009 16:00

eastern buy ;-)

[explorer88] 04/6/2009 14:21

lomax - 14 days between me posting that i believed a bid was imminent and the announcement that an agreed bid had been made (see UBQ thread)

[lomax99] 04/6/2009 14:16

was UBQ quick? (Hoping for an announcement before the end of June/when bank covenants are tested.)

[explorer88] 04/6/2009 13:39

hi mad!

imho, closer to UBQ timescale than SRF timescale.

[madasafishman] 04/6/2009 13:09

exp88
whats your guess on timescales for firm bid (if one comes at all)
before covenant end of june or after

hope we dont have to wait as long as we did with srf

i think bxtn will have to release a statement soon just regarding covenant issue if nothing else

if the covenant issue is positive and no bid we may even retain the current price trend/range

[arty] 04/6/2009 12:22

explorer - Very interesting and I do appreciate your thoughts on the subject, please feel free to keep em coming :o)

[explorer88] 04/6/2009 12:13

arty - oh yes, still very much a possibility ! :-)

Unfortunately i can't, in this instance, give % probabilities - there are too many variables / unknowns.

I still reckon SGRO is the underdog though.

[arty] 04/6/2009 11:51

explorer, I therefore assume you reckon that still may be a possibility then, if so what is your level of confidence on that as an outcome ?

[explorer88] 04/6/2009 11:37

i'd choose all cash offer from the east

[sportbilly1976] 04/6/2009 09:40

high volume in SGRO too this am...

fingers crossed something comes out soon...

4 shares + 10p will be nice :-)

[explorer88] 04/6/2009 08:48

warmsun - you may well be right ;-)

[warmsun] 04/6/2009 08:43

Final shake-out before bid?

[spud brown] 04/6/2009 08:42

looks like mms playing with this and qed

[sportbilly1976] 04/6/2009 07:33

UBS in creased their holding by 1 mln to over 6%.

[bainsey] 03/6/2009 10:58

up 9% today

[bainsey] 03/6/2009 10:49

Quintain Estates Trading Update



TIDMQED

RNS Number : 9454P
Quintain Estates & Development PLC
01 April 2009

?
1 April 2009
Quintain Estates and Development plc
("Quintain" / "Company" / "Group")


TRADING UPDATE


Quintain Estates and Development plc sets out below a trading update for the six
months to 31 March, ahead of the full year results announcement which will be
issued in June 2009.


Overview of Activity and Cash Preservation Programme
In the Interim Management Statement ("IMS") on 5 August 2008 the Company
announced that, in order to create greater flexibility to withstand
deteriorating conditions in the property sector, it was implementing a programme
of measures. The Company is pleased to report that:


* The Group's banking facilities have been renegotiated, as detailed in the
finance section below
* An active management approach has led to good progress with a 16% increase in
the contracted rent roll and a resilient performance by the fund management
business
* GBP97.5 million of cash has been repatriated during the financial year against
a target of GBP100 million. This programme will now be extended into the 2009 /
2010 financial year with a target of realising an additional GBP50 million by 31
March 2010 to provide further protection against falling property values
* The Company's current anticipated capital expenditure commitments are GBP53
million
* Expenditure on overheads during the last twelve months has been significantly
curtailed, achieving cost savings in excess of 20% on an annualised basis. The
budget for the current financial year increases this to 25%



As part of the Board's ongoing review of the Group's financial position an
independent property valuation was recently undertaken. This showed that, after
taking account of gains through planning, development and the agreement of new
leases, the overall value of the Group's portfolio at 14 February 2009 was
GBP1,203 million, compared to GBP1,314 million as at 30 September 2008. These
valuations already take into account further residential price falls of 10% and
16% at Wembley and Greenwich respectively during 2009. The Company could
accommodate further falls of up to 10% whilst remaining within its revised
gearing limit. The total by which the Group's portfolio of directly held
properties has now fallen from its peak to 14 February 2009, on a like for like
basis, is 38%.


The combination of reduced overheads, the suspension of the dividend, the
increase in annual income from rent, fees and operations from GBP46.7 million to
GBP66.5 million and the GBP97.5 million of repatriated cash achieved through the
programme outlined above has enabled the Company to enhance its financial
position. In addition to these measures, however, the Board decided that, given
the uncertainty of market conditions, it was prudent to seek an injection of new
equity. Notwithstanding a very encouraging level of support shown by a number of
major shareholders and new institutional investors, the Company is not in a
position to announce an equity fundraising. The Board firmly believes in the
long term value of its urban regeneration and fund management businesses and,
with its advisers J.P. Morgan Cazenove and Lazard, will continue to take action
to strengthen the Group's position and improve its financial stability.


Finance
During March the Company renegotiated its banking facilities, obtaining the
option to relax its gearing covenant from 110% to 150% on all its medium and
long term facilities, which has now been exercised. In addition, on the
condition that the Group's gearing is at or below 110% on 31 March 2009, the
GBP95 million Barclays facility would reduce to GBP35 million and mature on 30
April 2011, replacing the right for Barclays to require payment by 30 April 2010
and the Company will also have the option to increase gearing to 150% in line
with the other bilateral facilities. In the three months to 31 March 2009 the
average cost of debt was 4.5% (Sept 2008: 5.3%) and the Group's net borrowings,
excluding non-recourse debt within joint ventures, are currently around GBP540
million (Sept 2008: GBP556 million).


Business update
During the six months to 31 March 2009, three investment properties were sold
for a combined total of GBP13.7 million against September 2008 valuations of
GBP14.2 million, reflecting an aggregate discount of just 4%. A lease was also
agreed with Network Rail regarding Hudson House, York, realising a 54% increase
in rent from 25 December 2008 to GBP0.7 million per annum.


The sale of private apartments within Forum House (W01) at
Wembley City continues, with 56 completed to date. 141 apartments within the
building were sold to Registered Social Landlords for affordable housing prior
to the start of construction in 2006.


Quintain's residential lettings business at Wembley City has managed the leasing
of 32 apartments for private owners within Forum House since 1 October 2008
at rental levels consistently above those advertised for equivalent properties
in the immediately surrounding area.


75% of residents within Forum House have now subscribed, on 12 month
contracts, to Quintain's Velocity1 triple play service, launched in January,
which includes access to the UK's first 100Mbs broadband service for consumers.


New commercial lettings at Wembley City since 1 October 2008 amount to
GBP479,000 per annum ensuring that, despite the demise of Land of Leather and
MFI in January, income from the scheme increased during the period. Quintain's
annual income from the scheme is now in excess of GBP17 million.


Transport for London exercised its option on an additional two floors of office
space comprising 61,000 sq ft in January, taking its total lease at
Greenwich Peninsula to 196,000 sq ft. It will become the sole occupant of the
first commercial building on the scheme in July 2009. Ravensbourne College began
construction of its academic facility in October, with a projected completion
date of September 2010. Quintain's share of contracted income from
Greenwich Peninsula has now increased to GBP3.4 million per annum.


As anticipated from the continued growth in student numbers, rental levels of
rooms across the iQ student accommodation portfolio for the next academic year
have been strong. Six months ahead of the start of the 2009 / 2010 academic
year, 48% of rooms are already reserved at an average of 7.2% above 2008 / 2009
rental prices.


In its fourth quarter to 31 December 2008, the Quercus healthcare fund
experienced the strongest rental collection of its financial year and delivered
a property level return over three years of 8.2% compared to its IPD benchmark
of (4.7)%, thus securing a performance fee of GBP6.1million.


Adrian Wyatt, Chief Executive of Quintain, commented:
"In August we set out a programme of cash preservation measures adopted by the
Board in response to the ongoing deterioration in market conditions. Through
this programme we have reduced overheads by more than 20%, repatriated GBP97.5
million to the business and successfully re-negotiated all our financing
agreements. In addition, despite the challenging environment across the property
sector, we have continued to achieve good operational progress, most
particularly within our Quercus healthcare fund, which delivered an 8.2%
property level return over the three years to 31 December 2008, and by
increasing our annualised contracted rent roll by 16% since 30 September.


"We are delighted with the support shown by our relationship banks and will
continue to focus sharply on enhancing the financial stability of the business
until market conditions improve and we are able to unlock the considerable long
term value within the Group for our shareholders."

[bainsey] 03/6/2009 10:45

check out qed reporting tommorrow down from £8.00 a year ago to 52p = good recovery play ........

[scburbs] 03/6/2009 10:14

The extract below is the key scaremongering bit in the above article. Note that it is a very weak comparison as it isn't even in the same sector.

Crest Nicholson and McCarthy Stone had both been taken private in highly leveraged buyout deals near to the top of the market. Following the house price crash the debt became worth substantially more than the business. In addition builders need to sell houses to raise the funds to service the debt.

These are the two key differentiators with BXTN, i.e. its assets are worth more than the debt and it has the cashflow to service the interest. I believe Crest Nicholson and McCarthy Stone failed both of these tests hence the debt:equity swap.

Very short sighted of JP Morgan if they can't see the difference! More to the point if there were directly comparable examples in the property sector then surely they would have pointed to them!

The fact that over leveraged housebuilders who are unable to sell houses to service the debt have been forced into debt for equity swaps is hardly relevant to BXTN. It is still bricks and mortar, but any similarity in the business models end there.

"DEBT-FOR-EQUITY SWAP

Brixton's current predicament mirrors the troubles in the UK housebuilding sector, which earlier this year saw lenders to Crest Nicholson and McCarthy & Stone write off much of their debt in exchange for control over the firms.
JPMorgan analysts say a similar debt-for-equity swap deal could be the most likely outcome for Brixton, even though this would likely wipe out value for shareholders."

[hectorp] 03/6/2009 09:59

Agree re sergo, but- there are very many iffs here. my money has been returned to my account.
There are safer 'gambles' and BXTN is now an out and out gamble for shareholders.

[madasafishman] 03/6/2009 09:41

thanks lomax
i was asking/worried about the covenant dates yesterday

well the way the banks are acting at present with businesses
(although the goverment are saying they are to be helpfull)
this doesnt seem to be the case from my experience of companies i know

tricky situation this will the buyer think if the bank refuses covenant extension he could get this company on the cheap

but if the bank does extends covenants he may have to pay more or they may not sell at all

or does he put good offer in now and sort covenant issues himself

i would think brixton would have a fair indication from the banks already if the covenants would not be extended as this decision is not made in a 5 min phone call with out long discussions and future plans laid for consideration

im going for takeover bid prior to covenant date i just think bxtn know already re:covenant issues and will be negotiating on that basis
segro i think is best fit and smoothest transition even somethink as basic as location is in their favour...seems really good fit to me and think they will want it done asap