|Bodisen Biotech, Inc.
||COM STK USD0.0001
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Bodisen (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|skier100: Question for BODI long-termers -- what, in your view, drove the spike in trading volumes and share price today?
Thanks in advance.|
|leighbarton: Any comment on the results is outweighed by the Amex delisting and resultant litigation proceedings. A number of points from the filing:
Wey got massive compensation, previously undisclosed from the various placings. $5m from the AIM listing alone. Why?
Part of the proceeds for the placing were to be used to build a factory in the NE. They subsequently decided not to do this. Why? what has the money been used for instead?
The company is making loans left right and centre. Huge advances to its suppliers, even larger ones to its customers. This now has risen to $18m. Remember this is to pure peasant farmers. No issue when things are going well, but should there be a drought then these farmers will have no reserves to honour their commitments. At $7m I was fairly relaxed about this, but this has soared since the interims. It would be good to have a geographic analysis of where these loans are distributed to see the exposure the company has to drought prone regions.
Corporate Governance is clearly an issue here with previously undisclosed dealings by the management and founding investors, distributions of which were made from a reserve over the last financial period. 738,000 shares are still o/s in this regard (shares unclaimed by fouding investors). What's this all about.
All these factors I think cloud what otherwise look a healthy set of numbers. The risk factor I think is just too high, with the possibility that the company could still take a hammering. Not tempted back in in spite of (maybe because of) the recovery in share price.
A real shame but it does highlight the potential risks of investing in Chinese entities. Let's hope BODI is a one off, and got away with it because it did reverse into the market as opposed to going through the rigours of an IPO.|
|leighbarton: I think we need to be careful about using Bodisen to damn all Chinese companies or investments. Let's not forget Langbar or Enron. This sort of thing can happen to any country and I don't think it should be used to tar all Chinese companies or investments therefore.
Clearly however listing procedures should be looked at. Bodisen got a listing by Amex by the back door, how did this impact on regulatory scrutiny? Did the Amex listing have an impact on the secondary listing on AIM ie did it result in less scrutiny as a result? These are issues that should be addressed rapidly. In addition the Nomad should be brought before the regulators to explain their lack of scrutiny. Whilst Nomads can't be held to account for a company's trading or its share price, they should be held to account on whether the company is legitimate.
Like Va Va Voom I am surprised this share is still trading today, but at least it is giving PIs an opportunity to bail out before they lose any more.|
|influence: historically these class action do not normally have much effect on the share price in the long term. Trouble in this case is that there is other uncertaintly.
The Amex problem should be resolved in 6/7 weeks and final results should be out in 5 weeks time.
Fundementals are ok. Company is debt free and cash positive and the shares look very cheap. They even have a near 9% holding in China Gas.
Not a share for me but I am following this with interest.|
|bonzophil: Year Quarter Net Rev/$m Net income/$m Eps/Cents
2005 1 4.4 1.21 .05
2 8.4 2.69 .18
3 10.5 2.87 .19
4 7.4 2.03 .06
Total 31.0 8.80 .48
2006 1 8.5 2.2 .16
2 16.4 5.9 .32
3 12.7 3.2 .18
4 5.4 1.6 .05 Estimate
Total 43.0 12.9 .71
The above figures are what I have pieced together from all the quarterly accounts and the latest trading statement.
Overall the year on year improvement in eps is estimated at 48% which is less than originally estimated by the company, but still good. Total revenue was $43m which was exactly the amount stated as forward orders in the Nov 2005 trade show figures, which they stated was likely to be 70% of the total revenue for 2006??
Estimates for 2007 were stated in early 2006 to likely be double with the opening of the factories in the NE and NW of the country.
This is obviously not going to happen as the NW factory will not open until at least the 3rd Q 2007, and the NE factory has disappeared off the radar.
One hopes that the drop in 4th Q figures is due to the 1 month shutdown, and will prepare them for full throughput for 2007.
I think the best we can hope for in 2007 is a 20% increase in sales and eps.
Also in there is the stake in China Natural Gas valued at about $6m
The price earning for this year is about 7, and now that Wang has gone confidence may start to return. 2008 earnings could double from this years figure. I would expect the share price to recover to around the 5-600 level this year, so I think I'll hang on to my losses at present.|
|leighbarton: Cimbom, not true in terms of volume of shares - look at what is happening in the states for what really is the volume of trades.
In the UK 1,750 shares have traded hands whilst in the US the equivalent up to this time is 174k.
It is the US that drives the price of this share and at the moment the market is not rational with Herb Greenberg consistently bashing the company on grounds that it had dealings with a dodgy adviser. He reckons the company is not real but a paper tiger...'How do you get your share price to rise 20% issue a trading update to say your numbers are strong but give no numbers other than last years'...is how he greeted the latest trading update.
Despite the fact he is basing his case on some fairly dubious reasons ('the management don't even speak English')...he does appear to have a following and he is making this share a shorters paradise as they trade on fear of no smoke without fire principle.
If of course he is right a lot of us will have eggs on our faces. But I for one believe this company is real. They have been visited by D&T have respected auditors in Kabana (although a lot of US disparage them because they are not one of the big 4) and so it goes on.
The company does need to do something about this if they are to move forward. I have approached them, but their attitude at the moment is that their results speak for themselves. However in this bizarre climate of mistrust they don't because a lot of people in the US simply don't believe them.
It is truely bizarre, I have never seen anything like it. I suspect the only way they are going to overcome this issue is:
a]sue Greenbberg for defamation
b]de-list from US and rely instead on the more understanding AIM exchange
c]trade up to one of the senior US exchanges
d]prove Greenberg right in which case we are all up the swanny.
As I say I have never seen anything like this, its a bit like a soap opera but one where we could get rich if the company can sort its PR out.|
|leighbarton: dnevets good finds and can now see where the drought rumour came from. I've reproduced the article from Cattle Networks below:
"Favorable Weather Boosts China Cotton Production
China's 2006/07 cotton production is estimated at 29.0 million bales (6.3 million tons), up 1.0 million from last month and up 2.8 million from last year. The estimated area of 5.35 million hectares is up 50,000 hectares from last month and up 290,000 hectares from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 1180 kilograms per hectare, up almost 5 percent from last year. Record yields are forecast in Xinjiang, China's largest cotton province, while above average yields are expected from most provinces on the North China Plain and central China.
The 2006/07 season got off to a poor start. Planting and emergence were delayed by unfavorable weather (dry, cool, and windy weather in the north and west; excessive rain in southern Hebei and western Shandong; and drought in parts of Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu). However, rainfall and temperatures returned to normal in July, and crop conditions improved as the season progressed. The crop in the Yangtze River Basin benefited from abundant sunshine, warm temperatures, and lack of flooding. Weather in Xinjiang was generally favorable throughout the season.
A series of typhoons in southern China and a severe drought in the Sichuan Basin caused widespread damage to grain and cash crops but had a limited effect on total cotton production. Cool and wet weather in late August slowed crop development, caused minor boll losses, and lowered cotton quality in parts of the North China Plain. However, conditions were not as wet as in 2005/06 and 2003/04, when excessive late-season rainfall had a significant negative effect on the crop. Warmer and drier weather in September was ideal for cotton maturing and harvest across eastern China. Harvesting started in August and will continue through October."
In essence it is a bit of a mixed bag. Cash crop and grain farmers have suffered in some regions however the provinces worst affected by drought are the ones that traditionally suffer drought (though in May they were suffering the worst conditions in 50 years). However other provinces are flourishing, Xinjiang had fairly ideal weather conditions and is Bodisen's home turf (I think). That said good cotton crops are a counterwieght to poor grain and cash crops elsewhere.
The importance of all this is that Bodisen sell their products to a % of their customers on a 12 month financing deal. Clearly these are poorer farmers who otherwise would not be able to afford their products. As such a percentage of Bodisen's sales and receivables is dependant on farmers getting a good harvest in to pay for the goods they've sold to them. There was a question therefore on a number of bulletin boards as to whether their Q3 results would be hit with a higher bad debt figure. On the basis of this information this now would seem to be a remote possibility (at least in % terms no worse than previous years) and should alleviate one of the rumour clouds lingering over the share price.
As I don't buy into the NY Post 'this is a sham company' theory this is a further invitation to top up on any weakness prior to Q3 results. Does any one know when they are due to be published?|
|leighbarton: miamisteve - why unfortunately? Given this share price, if we are right, is being fueled by false insinuations of wrong doing, when in fact it's earnings would suggest it is currently undervalued by a factor of 2, then a visit to 400p represents a great opportunity to get in further on the cheap.
The only cloud, other than the campaign being waged by NY Post against any Chinese investment, that I have seen on the grapevines is rumours of a drought in China. I haven't been able to trace any evidence of this other than a note on a message board, however were it true then clearly BODI would be affected as it offers finance terms to Chinese Farmers who would not be able to pay if agricultural production dipped. But even then it would only affect one or two provinces so would only partially dent their earnings. As you say if their earnings had been significantly impaired we should have had a Profit Warning by now.
Thing to watch in Q3 numbers is whether creditors have increased significantly over the previous Q numbers. Otherwise I am just waiting now to see where this bottoms out before topping up again. I just wish I could put more of this into an ISA as I anticipate a sharp rise before the Y/E (assuming all rumours are unsubstantiated).|
|stegrego: Bodisen bounces back after reassuring investors
Bodisen Biotech (BODI) had regained some of its value this morning after the China-based fertilizer company issued a statement in reaction to yesterday's share price drop. According to analysts, that fall appeared to have been originally caused, at least in part, by selling in the US as a result of erroneous comment there on Monday. Opening today at 620p, the shares had climbed 13% to 700p by 12.55pm.
"The company has not reported any fundamental changes to its business model or financial condition and expects to report its record first-quarter earnings for the period to 31 March 2006 before 16 May," stated the Aim-listed group. "In its trading update of 18 April 2006, the company reaffirmed it will meet its 2006 market expectations."
The group issued a sequence of trading updates in April, noted Peter Ashworth, an analyst at Charles Stanley, adding: "On 26 April it announced it had signed a total of some $2.4m [£1.3m] of new contracts with various new and existing distributors for delivery in 2006. In April, the group also previewed first-quarter 2006 results and sees a significant increase in sales in 2006. It has experienced strong sales growth in the quarter and expects to build upon this growth in the second and third quarters, which are typically its strongest quarters."
In its guidance for 2006, Bodisen anticipated strong year-on-year revenue and earnings growth. "In November 2005 it received $43m of orders at two key industry trade shows, which it believes could represent some 70% of its expected annual sales at a target net margin of approximately 30%," said Ashworth. "The group also believes the added manufacturing capacity could potentially double the company's sales in 2007 compared to 2006." Charles Stanley, of which Bodisen is a corporate client, reiterated its Buy recommendation on the company.|
|gardenboy: 03 May 2006
Bodisen Biotech, Inc.
Statement re share price
Bodisen Biotech, Inc., (AMEX: BBC, London AIM:BODI) the China-based
environmentally friendly bio fertilizer company, announces that it notes its
share price fall.
The Company has not reported any fundamental changes to its business model or
financial condition and expects to report its record first quarter earnings for
the period to 31 March 2006 before May 16. In its trading update of 18 April
2006 the Company reaffirmed it will meet its 2006 market expectations|
Bodisen Biotech share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange