Portfolio Update
20/04/2012 1:40pm
UK Regulatory
TIDMEST TIDMESTZ
THEEASTERN EUROPEANTRUST PLC
All information is at 30 MARCH2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three One Three *Since
Month Months Year Years 30.04.09
Sterling:
Share price** -2.2% 16.7% -17.8% 133.3% 86.3%
Net asset value (undiluted)** -2.6% 17.4% -21.9% 127.9% 79.8%
MSCI EM Europe 10/40(TR) -4.0% 16.5% -17.3% 99.9% 66.5%
US Dollars:
Net asset value (undiluted -2.6% 20.8% -22.1% 154.1% 93.9%
MSCI EM Europe 10/40(TR) -4.0% 19.8% -17.6% 122.9% 79.5%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* BlackRock took over the investment management of the Company with effect from
1 May 2009.
** Net asset value and share price performance includes the subscription share
reinvestment, assuming the subscription share entitlement was sold and the
proceeds reinvested on the first day of trading.
At month end
Net asset value - capital only: 296.24p
Net asset value*** - cum income: 295.94p
Net asset value - cum income (diluted for subscription shares): 295.94p
Share price: 272.00p
Subscription share price: 0.55p
Total assets^: GBP141.6m
Discount (share price to cum income NAV): 8.1%
Gross market exposure of CFD portfolio as
a percentage of net asset value: 108.9%
Net yield: n/a
Ordinary shares in issue^^: 46,180,713
Subscription shares: 10,040,005
***Includes year to date net revenue deficit equal to 0.3p per share.
^Total assets include current year revenue.
^^Excluding 6,900,000 shares held in treasury.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Total Assets (%) Index (%) Country Analysis Total Assets (%)
Energy 39.2 36.5 Russia 56.5
Financials 29.9 27.4 Poland 15.5
Telecommunications 9.8 9.7 Turkey 14.9
Materials 8.0 10.7 Czech Republic 4.8
Utilities 5.2 7.4 Kazakhstan 4.7
Industrials 3.1 1.5 Hungary 3.6
Health Care 3.0 0.7 Turkmenistan 1.9
Consumer Discretionary 1.9 1.1 Ukraine 0.6
Consumer Staples 1.4 4.7
Information Technology 1.0 0.3
Long Position 1.3 - Long Position 1.3
Short Positions -5.1 - Short Positions -5.1
Net current assets 1.3 - Net current assets 1.3
----- ----- -----
100.0 100.0 100.0
===== ===== =====
Ten Largest Equity Investments(in %orderof Total Market value)
Total Market
Company Country of Risk Value %
Sberbank Russia 9.1
Gazprom Russia 8.9
Lukoil Russia 8.4
Novatek Russia 5.6
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Turkey 5.2
Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen Poland 3.8
Kazmunaigas Exploration Kazakhstan 3.2
Sistema Russia 3.1
Turkiye Halk Bankasi Turkey 3.1
Surgutneftegaz Russia 2.9
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the investment
Manager noted;
Markets
The rally in global risk assets that characterized the start of 2012 lost its
momentum in March with the MSCI Emerging Europe 10/40 index returning -4.0%
over the month.
Russian equities underperformed moderately against the backdrop of Presidential
elections, which were held at the beginning of March. Pre-election opinion
polls reflected the view that strong expressions of support for Vladimir Putin
would translate into a decisive victory in the first round of voting. The
strength of the Russian market suggested that investors were confident that
political risk would be alleviated and that a strong mandate from the
electorate in an environment of high oil prices would be positive for Russia.
Putin was duly elected with 64% of the vote. There have been reports of
irregularities and anti-Putin protests in Moscow, where his support is much
lower than in the regions, have grabbed the headlines. However, despite doubts
surrounding the electoral process, Putin is the most popular politician in
Russia and the popular legitimacy of his position is not in doubt although how
he responds to shifting political sands is yet to be seen and the upcoming
formation of the new cabinet may provide a signal of future direction.
Hungary also underperformed in March. Although Hungary announced a change in
policy to seek support from the IMF and EU in alleviating budgetary pressures,
formal talks have yet to begin. Investors became concerned that Prime Minister
Oban's particular brand of brinkmanship has reduced the likelihood of an
agreement being made in the near-term
The Czech Republic outperformed in March, once again displaying low beta,
defensive characteristics. The market was also cheered by improving Czech
economic data.
Portfolio
The Trust returned -2.6% in March, outperforming the benchmark by 1.4%.
The Trust was well positioned with stock selection and asset allocation both
contributing to March's outperformance.
Stock selection in Turkey was particularly strong with overweight positions in
financials. The banking sector rebounded from depressed valuations as global
liquidity eased funding conditions and improved the macro economic outlook. The
Trust also benefitted from a placement in one of its short positions which
enabled it to lock in profits.
Kazakh energy company, Kazmunaigas was also a significant contributor to
outperformance. The company announced that it proposed to increase the dividend
per share for 2011 by over 60%. In conjunction with the continued share
buy-back programme, the dividend represents a further improvement in corporate
governance by returning cash to shareholders.
The largest single detractor from performance was the Trust's holding in Kazakh
miner, ENRC, which announced results which disappointed the markets. Despite
increased revenues and record sales in the ferrochrome division, higher than
expected costs reduced profits below market forecasts.
Activity
The Trust has been opportunistically reducing the underweight in Russia adding
to positions in energy companies, Surgutneftegas & Lukoil. Surgutneftegas &
Lukoil are the main beneficiaries from changes in the tax regime designed to
promote the production of crude oil and light oil products over fuel oil, a
trend that the team expects to continue in the future.
The Trust also added to the holding in Hungarian Pharmaceutical company. Gedeon
Richter. The company has announced positive results from drug trials focusing
on the treatment of mental health problems.
The team took the decision to reduce the holding in Hungarian financial, OTP
Bank. The position has been an important overweight position in recent months
and a contributor to outperformance, but we are now significantly underweight
and the absolute position is negligible. Although Hungary had previously
announced a change in policy to seek support from the IMF and EU, formal talks
have yet to start and we believe the prospects for a quick agreement are not as
strong as the market suggests, which is becoming increasingly risky as European
debt markets begin to show signs of weakness once more.
Outlook
The discount of eastern European valuations to global equity markets remains
high at over 45%. Valuations are below historical averages, offering
significant upside on any positive news-flow and scope for a re-rating when the
economic background improves. It is important to remember that Eastern European
economies remain highly competitive with undervalued currencies, less debt,
lower levels of corporate taxation and lower labour costs than Western Europe.
Following the re-election of Vladimir Putin as Russian President, the question
is `what next?'. The world has changed since Putin's first and second terms and
so too have Russian politics. The opposition has found its voice and the
required response from Putin will have to be far more nuanced, taking into
account protestors' concerns, if he is to rediscover the popularity he once
enjoyed.
One area in which Putin is able to reassure international investors is through
increasing dividend payments from state-controlled companies to minority
shareholders. Historically, Russian companies have chosen to invest profits
rather than returning cash to shareholders, leading to dividend yields which
have been below emerging market averages. At the end of 2011, an announcement
from Gazprom of a doubling of the dividend, equating to a 5% yield marked a
significant change in policy. Legislators are now looking at extending minimum
payout ratios across companies controlled by the state. Russian dividend yields
are forecast to be 3.3% in 2012, surpassing the average across emerging markets
for the first time.
ENDS
Latest information is available by typing www.estplc.co.uk on the internet,
"BLRKINDEX" on Reuters, "BLRK" on Bloomberg or "8800" on Topic 3 (ICV
terminal). Neither the contents of the Manager's website nor the contents of
any website accessible from hyperlinks on the Manager's website (or any other
website) is incorporated into, or forms part of, this announcement.
END