Portfolio Update
19/03/2012 1:24pm
UK Regulatory
TIDMEST TIDMESTZ
THE EASTERN EUROPEAN TRUST PLC
All information is at 29 FEBRUARY 2012 and unaudited.
Performance at month end with net income reinvested
One Three One Three *Since
Month Months Year Years 30.04.09
Sterling:
Share price** 8.7% 12.2% -11.5% 205.1% 90.4%
Net asset value (undiluted)** 7.8% 9.9% -15.6% 177.1% 84.6%
MSCI EM Europe 10/40(TR) 6.9% 10.4% -8.3% 144.7% 73.5%
US Dollars:
Net asset value (undiluted 9.1% 11.6% -17.1% 210.5% 99.0%
MSCI EM Europe 10/40(TR) 8.2% 12.2% -9.9% 174.2% 87.0%
Sources: BlackRock and Standard & Poor's Micropal
* BlackRock took over the investment management of the Company with effect from
1 May 2009.
** Net asset value and share price performance includes the subscription share
reinvestment, assuming the subscription share entitlement was sold and the
proceeds reinvested on the first day of trading.
At month end
Net asset value - capital only: 302.86p
Net asset value*** - cum income: 303.75p
Net asset value - cum income (diluted for
subscriptionshares): 303.75p
Share price: 278.00p
Subscription share price: 0.55p
Total assets^: GBP141.8m
Discount (share price to cum income NAV): 8.5%
Gross market exposure of CFD portfolio as
a percentage of net asset value: 107.7%
Net yield: n/a
Ordinary shares in issue^^: 46,180,713
Subscription shares: 10,040,005
***Includes year to date net revenue equal to 0.89p per share.
^Total assets include current year revenue.
^^Excluding 6,900,000 shares held in treasury.
Benchmark
Sector Analysis Total Assets (%) Index (%) Country Analysis Total Assets (%)
Energy 38.2 36.7 Russia 53.0
Financials 28.2 27.5 Turkey 15.3
Telecommunications 9.3 9.6 Poland 13.8
Materials 9.2 11.1 Czech Republic 5.6
Utilities 6.1 7.3 Hungary 5.1
Health Care 3.3 0.7 Kazakhstan 4.6
Consumer Discretionary 1.6 1.1 Turkmenistan 1.8
Consumer Staples 1.4 4.2 Ukraine 0.5
Information Technology 1.3 0.3
Industrials 1.1 1.5
Long Position 1.6 - Long Position 1.6
Short Positions -6.4 - Short Positions -6.4
Net current assets 5.1 - Net current assets 5.1
----- ----- -----
100.0 100.0 100.0
===== ===== =====
Ten Largest Equity Investments (in % order of Total Market value)
Total Market
Company Country of Risk Value %
Gazprom Russia 9.4
Sberbank Russia 8.6
Lukoil Russia 8.2
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Turkey 5.4
Novatek Russia 5.1
Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen Poland 4.0
CEZ Czech Republic 3.5
Sistema Russia 3.5
Uralkaliy Russia 3.1
Turkiye Halk Bankasi Turkey 3.1
Commenting on the markets, Sam Vecht, representing the investment
Manager noted;
Market Overview
In February, Emerging European equities continued their strong start to the
year with the MSCI Emerging Europe 10/40 index returning 8.2% in USD terms.
Prospects of a second bail-out for Greece and easing of pressure on Italian
bond markets proved to be positive for risk assets globally as did the
announcement from the ECB of a second round of Long Term Refinancing Operations
(LTRO).
Russian equities were strong performers over the month, building on gains since
the start of the year ahead of Presidential elections, held at the beginning of
March. Pre-election opinion polls reflected the view that strong expressions of
support for Vladimir Putin would translate into a decisive victory in the first
round of voting. The strength of the Russian market suggested that investors
were confident that political risk would be alleviated and that a strong
mandate from the electorate in an environment of high oil prices would be
positive for Russia.
Since the month end, Putin was duly re-elected with 64% of the vote. There have
been reports of irregularities and anti-Putin protests in Moscow, where his
support is much lower than in the regions, have grabbed the headlines. However,
despite doubts surrounding the electoral process, Putin is the most popular
politician in Russia and the legitimacy of his position is not in doubt.
Turkey underperformed the index as investors focused on the headwinds from a
current account deficit further burdened by the high oil price. The Turkish
economy has been expanding at an unsustainable rate and inflationary pressures
continue to build.
Portfolio Performance
The Company returned 9.1%, in February, outperforming the index MSCI Emerging
Europe 10/40 by 0.9% in US Dollar terms.
Stock selection, particularly in Russia and Turkey, was the main driver of
outperformance over the month.
Russian internet company, Mail.ru, was a significant outperformer in February,
the stock driven higher by the announcement of results for 2011 which exceeded
analysts' expectations thanks to successful user monetization strategies. The
company, which also has stakes in Facebook and Groupon, reported an increase in
net income of 160% year-on-year.
Russian energy company, Volga Gas, also performed well, the share price rising
over 30% in February, after a positive operational update indicating that the
company's key Vostochny-Makarovskoye gas field development is continuing to
progress.
Detracting from performance was Polish utility PGNiG, which controls
distribution of gas in Poland. The company has come under pressure from
increases in imported gas prices which the company has been prevented from
passing through to the domestic market by the Polish regulator.
Portfolio Activity
We added to holdings in Poland in February by initiating new positions in the
consumer discretionary and utilities sectors.
TVN is a major Polish commercial television network, the shares of which were
sharply down following a weak trading announcement. We believe that the current
valuation represents an attractive opportunity to own a media asset which has
the rights to show matches at the forthcoming UEFA European Championships,
which Poland will co-host with Ukraine
Power generation company, PGE, had underperformed the market rally and
following financial results, which were in-line with market expectations, the
team took the opportunity to reduce the underweight position in the stock.
We also added to the holding in Hungarian Pharmaceutical company Gedeon
Richter. The company has announced positive results from drug trials focusing
on the treatment of mental health problems.
We took some profits in Russian energy company, Surgutneftegaz, after the stock
performed well with oil price strength.
Outlook
The discount of Eastern European valuations to global equity markets remains
high at over 45%. Valuations are below historical averages, offering
significant upside on any positive news-flow and scope for a re-rating when the
economic background improves.
Following the re-election of Vladimir Putin as Russian President, the question
is 'what next?'. The world has changed since Putin's first and second terms and
so too have Russian politics. The opposition has found its voice and the
required response from Putin will have to be far more nuanced, taking into
account protestors' concerns, if he is to rediscover the popularity he once
enjoyed.
Despite the recent rally in world markets, it is important to remember that
Eastern European economies are highly competitive with undervalued currencies,
less debt, lower levels of corporate taxation and lower labour costs than
Western Europe.
19 March 2012
END