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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big Food Grp. | BFP | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | - |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 09/12/2004 09:16 by bigface When it was 87p reecently I sugested selling on the next statement that makes it look as if teh bid is serious and sell. 92 or 93 was possible (may still be again) Thee are games being played heree - it may come good, but the goal posts are continually moving. Perhaps they aree waiting for Morroisons and Somerfield to come up to speed that will flatten Iceland sales further. I still think the profits will be better than the sales suggest but I think (in teh end) Bauger will pull out or offer silly money after his banker get cold feet. Reading between the lines this was flagged up in the last statement.Nothing is certain and I run many risks so I am not suggesting that people should be running scared, but make a practical decision - I sols BFP and bought Somerfield am out of that and into PSN and taking a gamble on GWP. There atr too many imponderables with BFP. sorry anbout the typing I am late!!! |
Posted at 05/12/2004 23:28 by sikhthetech King, I too had Arcadia when Green put in his bid. Bauger didnt table an offer but there were always rumours that they will. Bauger made a killing from their stake having bought at 40p and sold at 260p. I originally thought they were doing the same at BFP and SOF. Still hold BFP, hoping for more than 95p..... |
Posted at 02/12/2004 11:58 by robbie_3 I reposted my thoughts, especially paragraph 3. "robbie_3 - 23 Nov'04 - 15:15 - 1838 of 1875 Small investors that can should hold on tight imo and not play into Bauger/MW's hands by selling out and delivering BFP's share price on a plate. I guess there may be shorting on recent news but I can't see the share price dropping to 80p target as investors recognise the opportunity to go long at these levels. Bauger with 22% will not want to walk away and sensible investors already know this. I would also have been surprised if due diligence had been a quick process, of course the longer this goes on the more disaffected shareholders become and the cheaper the deal. Only then will Bauger carve and sell off BFP making a nice little profit at the expense of small shareholders. That's what Bauger is good at. I also wonder how hard Grimsey is honestly working for small inverstors? If this deal with Bauger goes through no doubt Grimsey will do very nicely out of it. Bauger currently hold the cards but at some point soon they will have to show them. No amount of sounding out beforehand can ensure there are not others out there wishing to join the table. Some may remember the Kingfisher offer before Wall Mart's takeover of Asda. Bauger with 22% wins either way. Holding. " |
Posted at 23/11/2004 15:15 by robbie_3 Small investors that can should hold on tight imo and not play into Bauger/MW's hands by selling out and delivering BFP's share price on a plate.I guess there may be shorting on recent news but I can't see the share price dropping to 80p target as investors recognise the opportunity to go long at these levels. Bauger with 22% will not want to walk away and sensible investors already know this. I would also have been surprised if due diligence had been a quick process, of course the longer this goes on the more disaffected shareholders become and the cheaper the deal. Only then will Bauger carve and sell off BFP making a nice little profit at the expense of small shareholders. That's what Bauger is good at. I also wonder how hard Grimsey is honestly working for small inverstors? If this deal with Bauger goes through no doubt Grimsey will do very nicely out of it. Bauger currently hold the cards but at some point soon they will have to show them. No amount of sounding out beforehand can ensure there are not others out there wishing to join the table. Some may remember the Kingfisher offer before Wall Mart's takeover of Asda. Bauger with 22% wins either way. Holding. |
Posted at 09/11/2004 21:57 by sikhthetech The pension situation and costs control should become clearer this Thur when BFP announces their results. However, if BFP split Iceland and Booker isnt the breakup value more than the current share price. The other factor which doesnt really have a monetary value is the sites. Icelands have some very good locations which some of the larger players would die for. With Bauger increasing its stake in Somerfield, there maybe a possibility that they will bid for BFP, which in turn will push up Somerfield's price. Then Bauger can make some money out of selling its Somerfield stake. Interesting but who knows what tricks they have up their sleeve. I think a bid of 110p will reveal other buyers and may push the price up to 140p mark.... |
Posted at 17/10/2004 13:04 by djlungi Bigface - 'Fags are a loss leader really and note that 1.5bn of cigarrrette sales is mainly tax.'The tobacco sales stated are exclusive of vat and the tobacco companies pay the duty, BFP are not paying tax on the 1.5bn figure. BFP tobacco sales are generated almost exclusively through the Booker group. From the Booker website, 'Tobacco accounts for a significant proportion of retail sales footfall, and with 1 in every 6 cigarettes smoked in the UK supplied by us, you'll find everything you need at your local Booker branch.' I've been led to believe that Booker is supplied tobacco products on a 30day credit basis. Assuming annual sales of 1.5bn, monthly sales are 125m, so based on the 30 day arrangement, Booker have a 125m interest free loan. Therefore annual tobacco profit = interest on 125m + in store markup. I'll assume in store profit of half a percent, annual interest at 9%. Profit is 0.5% x 1.5bn = 7.5m Interest is 9% x 12.5m = 11.25m Tobacco profit = 18.75m, a large part of Big Food profits Of course these figures could be way out, as profit might be more or less than 0.5%. I feel that the 9% interest figure is a fair one, since this is about the rate of interest offered on BFP bonds (see press release 18 June 2002). The figures also do not include any additional profits made from stockpiling before budget increases. So a slowdown in sales, either through competition or regulation will inevitably have an effect on BFP profits. |
Posted at 04/9/2004 19:12 by bigface Yes Kingdwg - way too low, but BFP has always been a volatile stock. Strong nerves required, but teh fall in sof may suggest they are gearing up to buy into bfp. Not 100% conviced sof woll pull it off but sof has nowhere else to go if it wants to remain independent.Whatever - I am holding firm - r u kingy and what about your son , is he in ,again, I recall he has made a few bob on bfp in the past? PS shame that the Teletext site has gone? |
Posted at 23/7/2004 20:22 by bigface To think I could have got out at a profit instead of buying more this pm. Looking back, as BFP rose from 24p to 180p a share I, personally, thought the rise a little overdone, but at 89p the balance of risk/reward is very different. goodfella thinks BFP will become insolvent and a buyer will pick it up for 15p a share - he is entitled to his opinion and, presumably, if he is as confident about his analysis as he seems to be, is likely to have taken a large short position on the company. My belief, having held Iceland, and then BFP, on and off, since 1996, is that the current volumn suggests that someone is building, or increasing a stake. It would not surprise me if an RNS confirms that shortly. Buys over 100,000 125,000 178,365 250,000 400,000 500,000 575,000 859,138 1,000,000 Sells over 100,000 150,000 250,000 250,000 Booker, Winward Foods and Iceland all have the potential to improve their performance. Having had direct experience of Bookers myself, I appreciate, that the Wholesale Business, in particular, has enormous scope for improvement. I acknowledge BFP is a risk - nearly everything is, but 5bn in Turnover is worth having despite reduced margins and remember BFP's sales declined overall by only 0.5%. There is a big buyer out there, that is obvious from the pattern of trades, however, if its Bauger he may well have a go at it at 105p a share. I have traded BFP many times and at a good profit (about 20% overall) but I am never complacent and people never really know what is going to happen - not even you goodfella. |
Posted at 08/7/2004 00:00 by flat eric3 Hi Bigface and Kingy - I'm glad that both of you cannot understand the real reason behind the fall in SOF and BFP. If you remember, I could not either as SOF began to retrace below NAV and I sold out. I have been watching both stocks closely since and still cannot see a reason to buy back at present. Still not sure what is driving these downwards, but I think 80p for BFP is still more than possible on charts alone. Bigface - I hope that you have not made one big mistake by switching into BFP from SOF in such a big way. Recent good advertising and lower prices at BFP show the desire to win back market share, but at what cost? Margins must suffer and it even looks like sales will be down further as well. Grimsey was, I think responsible, for selling off Wickes in a prior job, but buying into BFP purely on bid speculation is a risky business at this level I think. Hope I am wrong for your sake BF, but I can see 80p and possibly lower if Q1 disappoints. Remember also, that FIL sold out of both SOF and BFP at points that we all considered to be way too early. Maybe having to shift such a large amount of stock in both, their timing was bang on? Good luck boys. The Flat One. |
Posted at 03/7/2004 20:29 by bigface The bottom is a difficult thing to call my feathery friend, but Booker should be capable of 40m all on it's own. From memory Iceland paid 10 x annual earnings for Booker which was about 360m. The balance sheet has suffered since, but the Tangible Assets Values are improving.Booker should be worth BFP's market cap on its own, but put BFP and SOF together and we have a much improved balance sheet for BFP and a lower PE for SOF. In short BFP & SOF fit and I have always considered a merger a real possibility. Similar customers and ethos too. I sold SOF (even though rate them to go higher) and switched into BFP big time because I see SOF bidding for BFP and as a consequence SOF's share price suffering in the short run. |
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