|MMaa fell 23.5% in 2009. Biggest fall since 38.7% in 1991, when the art bubble of 1985-1990 burst. 2009's drop was also the second largest decline since the great depression.
MMaa did not bounce back (during 2009) as much as stocks did, SPX was up 26.4% from its end 2008 value, during 2009.
For 50 years, returns are very close: 8.9% for art versus 9.4% for equities.|
|CALLS, with BID at $23.37 / PE of $
-BIDHW Aug 16 08 17.50C 7.40 0.00 6.00 - 6.30 0 15
-BIDHD Aug 16 08 20.00C 7.10 0.00 4.00 - 4.50 0 1
-BIDAW Jan 17 09 17.50C 6.80 0.00 7.10 - 7.70 0 171
-BIDAD Jan 17 09 20.00C 5.30 0.00 5.70 - 6.10|
|Well the bids are starting as the stock market in its slightly irrational state is mis-valuing businesses. Today there were many bids Anheuser Bush, TNT, Continental, Alliance and Leicester to mention the main ones. The fun is starting to happen- the question is which is the next one. I think a lot of AIM companies will go private over the next 6 months especially the profitable ones.|
|...but they aren't even "rumours", it's coming from the company itself via official RNS'! lol|
|MDX. "Multiple approaches", shareprice falling through the floor. Nuff said.|
|Oh look, the supposed bid for company share prices are dropping !
Well I never.|
|That the bid rumours could be deliberate hot air in order for shares to escape the doldrums and some investors to get out.
All the discussion on the boards usually revolves around how logical it would be for such and such a company to be 'interested' in the target company and what good value the shares are.
There are quite a lot of sudden vertical rises out of nowhere, with no tangible bids, just rumours. I just wonder if my suspicions of manipulation are too cynical.
I really don't believe there are that many companies actually all interested in a real acquisition at the same time.|
|so whats your point|
|Perhaps there's some cynics around at the weekend ??|
|Deafening silence !|
|So the small cap market has taken a battering over the last year or so and so have plenty of investors. Lots of small caps seem to have levelled off, but not at a level where anyone who bought previously would like to sell.
Suddenly there are bid rumours all over the place - all at around the same time - which in my book is odd.
Perhaps real companies all spot bargains at the same time, causing a mass hunt for cheap acquisitions and therefore bid rumours abound ?
Or do a lot of investors have a lot to gain from getting their money out at 50-100% higher than the recent bottoms, albeit at a loss from their original investment ?
Or perhaps not such a big loss if you bought a huge lump at the bottom, just before the bid rumour(s).
Do I trust the City ?|
I really do hope you get your price, that would net me just short of a cool £1m|
mr gary curtis
|poorold - 11 Feb'08 - 00:40 - 9234 of 9329
Excellent summary of the potential from the serious thread - Respect to Poorold!
I reckon I would be happy to wave goodbye to all this for 650p a share... but you see I am now entrenched as holder ... been here since 2003 when someone was kind enough to tip me the wink on the next big thing... after Torotrak! So maybe I would be reluctant to part then ... what would I do with my life ...?
Anyway 10 bags from here would leave me happy!
Do I qualify to be a numptie now?|
|Nice try Bela, it appears the numpties (laccy etc.) would rather hijack the real business threads and wind up the muppets......|
mr gary curtis
|Post your takeover discussion thoughts to your hearts content, whether you'll accept 80p or £8 quid or another figure in between.
What are we worth?
Do you care?
Its overvalued, its undervalued.....................
Debate away, no rules, no moderation, tell it like it is!!!!!!!!!!!|
Sotheby's chart on Yahoo is very revealing. You need to look at BID going back to 1988. It predicts '91, '00-02 recession perfectly. Coming soon: 2007-? recession.
YOU MUST LOOK AT THIS. IT'S ONE OF THE BEST CHARTS I'VE EVER SEEN.
|Fine Art Fall Off A Cliff, Sotheby's down 36% so far today Rating
"A Van Gogh led the high-profile flops last night, drawing no bids".
Sotheby's $269.7 Million Auction Falls Short; Van Gogh Unsold
By Lindsay Pollock and Philip Boroff
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Buyers rejected a quarter of the works for sale at Sotheby's Impressionist and modern art auction last night, as the auction house fell short of its low estimate in the sale for the first time in more than two years.
The results totaled $269.7 million, well under the presale low estimate of $355.6 million and barely half the high estimate of $494.2 million. A Van Gogh estimated to sell for as much as $35 million failed to draw a single bidder.
Hovering over the proceedings was the subprime mortgage mess, which has cost banks and securities firms tens of billions of dollars and yesterday helped knock 2.9 percent off the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
``It's too early to say there is a correction,'' said Cristin Tierney, a New York art adviser. ``But in an uncertain financial market, people are going to look before they leap.''
The last time Sotheby's fell short of its low estimate at such a sale was in May 2005, when it brought in $91 million, below the $127 million low estimate.
Tuesday night's Impressionist and modern auction at competitor Christie's International totaled $395 million, in the lower half of its presale estimated range of $349 million to $487 million. Still, it was the second-biggest art auction ever held.
Evening sales resume Nov. 12, when Christie's mounts a contemporary art auction from the estate of dealer Allan Stone.
A Van Gogh led the high-profile flops last night, drawing no bids. The jagged 1890 yellow-and-blue ``The Fields (Wheat Fields),'' estimated to sell for at least $28 million, depicts the site where the Dutch artist later killed himself. Dealers complained it had recently been offered.
The Van Gogh was ``guaranteed,'' meaning that Sotheby's or an anonymous third party promised the seller an undisclosed minimum regardless of the outcome of the sale. Georges Braque's ``L'Echo,'' expected to go for as much as $20 million, also failed to sell and carried a guarantee.
Sotheby's could incur some costs to fulfill its guarantees and hold unsold inventory.
Sotheby's shares yesterday fell $2.41, or 4.6 percent, to $50.07 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They've dropped 11.5 percent since Oct. 26.
Among other casualties, Picasso's 5-foot tall ``La Lampe'' was one of the few works by the modern master to nose-dive this week. The painting, offered by his family and featuring a hanging lamp and plaster bust of the artist's mistress, had a $25 million low estimate.
Matisse's 1942 ``Le Repose de la Danseuse,'' starring a woman tucked into a yellow chair, also failed to sell. It had been estimated at more than $6 million. Another Matisse set an auction record Tuesday night, fetching $33.6 million at Christie's.
As a jittery crowd exited the sales room, dealers and collectors -- with inventory to protect -- were reluctant to declare a downturn in the art market. Instead, noting Christie's stronger results the previous night, they blamed the merchandise and the rich estimates Sotheby's assigned in the early summer, on the heels of the May sales and well before Wall Street's August woes.
``People were saying the estimates were too high,'' Chelsea dealer Christophe Van de Weghe said.
There were bright spots. Paul Gauguin's Tahitian ``Te Poipoi (The Morning)'' sold for $39.2 million, from a lone telephone bid by Hong Kong collector Joseph Lau, according to Sotheby's. Although the Gauguin was the top lot, its price was a third below the $60 million high estimate. A year ago, Lau bought Andy Warhol's 1972 portrait of Chairman Mao for $17.4 million.
Featuring two semi-nude Tahitian woman by a river, Gauguin's vista of an exotic paradise was painted a year after his arrival in Tahiti. Sotheby's catalog compared the work to bathing scenes by artists such as Degas and Rubens, though dealers commented before the sale that the bare-bottomed, squatting woman might deter some potential bidders.
The painting -- included in exhibitions at MoMA, the Art Institute of Chicago and the Metropolitan Museum of Art -- has an illustrious past. Joan Whitney Payson, a prominent New York art collector, horse racing personality and owner of the New York Mets, bought the painting in 1945.
A bronze sculpture of another Picasso mistress, ``Tete de Femme (Dora Maar),'' was estimated to sell for up to $30 million. It made $29.2 million. The monumental head was modeled in 1941 and four versions were cast in the 1950s.
The same piece was offered for sale last December at Art Basel Miami Beach by dealer Jan Krugier, of New York and Geneva, with a $30 million price tag. The seller is a private European collector. The price is a record for a Picasso sculpture at auction.
A Few Winners
Despite the lackluster bidding, a few sellers thrived. Cell phone billionaire George Lindemann -- whose son Adam is offering a Jeff Koons sculpture at Sotheby's next week -- sold Franz Marc's 1912 ``Der Wasserfall (Frauen Unter Einem Wasserfall),'' estimated at $20 million to $30 million. It fetched a record $20.2 million last night, more than doubling the record $8.4 million he paid at Sotheby's in London in 1999.
``We had some good moments and we had some tough moments,'' said David Norman, head of Sotheby's Impressionist and modern art department.
(Lindsay Pollock and Philip Boroff write on the arts for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are their own.)
To contact the writers of this story: Lindsay Pollock in New York at [email protected].com ; Philip Boroff in New York at [email protected]t
|Sotheby's Outlook: A Work of Art
IF ANYONE DOUBTS THE ART MARKET'S STRENGTH, just look at Sotheby's third-quarter auction sales: At about $322 million, they came in 40% higher than those of a year earlier.
That volume, combined with a recent increase in the commission rates charged buyers, bodes well for Sotheby's third-quarter earnings, which may well top consensus forecasts.
Despite the summer's convulsions in the financial markets, the art market, especially at the high end, is likely to show vigor when the fall auction season moves into high gear this week as sales start in London.
Van Gogh's The Fields is expected to fetch as much as $35 million in next month's auction
The driving force: the emerging wealthy in countries like Russia who are benefiting from the global commodities boom. In fact, Sotheby's canceled the Sept. 17 public sale of a major Russian art collection after a Russian oligarch offered to buy all of it at a price well in excess of the highest presale estimate.
Kristine Koerber of JMP Securities, who has an Outperform rating on Sotheby's shares (ticker: BID), last week lifted her earnings estimate for this year to $2.97 a share from $2.82. Because of better-than-expected revenue growth, she now sees a loss of 27 cents a share in the seasonally weak third quarter; she'd previously predicted a 42-cent deficit.
Sotheby's shares rallied 5%, to $51.28, on Koerber's estimate revision. That's about 51% higher than where they stood a year ago when Barron's penned a bullish piece on the auctioneer ("Art Appreciation," Oct. 9, 2006).
Koerber, as well as her counterparts at Craig Hallum Capital and Wedbush Morgan Securities, sees shares of the auction house hitting $60 within a year. "There's no sign of weakening demand in the high-end market," she notes. "Most of the price inflation has been in the contemporary market, and recent contemporary sales have done quite well."
-- Sandra Ward
|Post removed by ADVFN|
|RTR, LLOY, STAN, PRU, LMI, ANTO, AL... actually just about any FTSE company|
|Post removed by ADVFN|
|LIST ALL THE STOCKS WHICH ARE OR WILL BE TAKEN OVER|
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