Aztec Res. Share Discussion Threads

[Abuse team] 24/7/2006 08:10

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[Abuse team] 24/7/2006 08:08

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[Abuse team] 24/7/2006 08:04

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[Abuse team] 24/7/2006 07:54

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[biswell] 24/7/2006 07:29

OK light the blue touchpaper
B

[biswell] 21/7/2006 10:02

Get the fireworks ready
B

[red ninja] 21/6/2006 08:47

Further confirmation of the rise in Iron ore prices :-

Rio Tinto PLC
21 June 2006

Iron ore price settlement

Hamersley Iron has today reached agreement with Chinese steel mills on the
prices for deliveries of Hamersley's lump ores and fine ores during the contract
year commencing 1 April 2006. Under this agreement, the prices of lump ores and
fine ores will increase by 19 per cent.

Sam Walsh, chief executive of Rio Tinto's Iron Ore group, said, 'I am very
pleased that the annual price discussions with our major market have been
concluded in line with settlements previously established with other major Asian
buyers. The settlements reflect Hamersley's ongoing commitment to the Chinese
market.'

[red ninja] 06/6/2006 20:45

Company newsletter on island project :-

[red ninja] 31/5/2006 17:03

IRon ore prices looking healthy should do AZR good :-

Chinese Steel Officials Claim They Were "Bullied"

By Interfax-China
31 May 2006 at 07:56 AM EDT


SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- Chinese steel officials are claiming that Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) bullied steelmakers into accepting a 19% iron ore price increase.

"CVRD warned China not to reject a 19% increase in the price of iron ore. CVRD will not load iron ore shipments at 2005 contract prices in Brazil's ports bound for China." Hou Yan, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), told Interfax Wednesday.




Hou said many ships from China have had to wait in ports and pay more than $10,000 per day for prolonging the loading date. Usually, the port charges $3,000 for each 10,000 tonnes of shipments.

CVRD's attitude during negotiations had a significant impact on Chinese steelmakers, according to Hou.

"The China Iron and Steel Association has reported the situation to Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM)," he said.

CVRD officials were unavailable for comment.

According to government sources Tuesday, China will accept a 19% increase in the price of iron ore for the fiscal year, ending months of negotiations with BHP Billiton [NYSE:BHP], Rio Tinto [NYSE:RTP] and CVRD [NYSE:RIO]. The agreement comes after several European and Asian steelmakers accepted a similar deal from suppliers earlier in the month.

However, Baosteel nor the China Iron and Steel Association have yet announced the deal. Sources told Interfax that the agreement will officially be signed in June.

In March, China tried to influence the talks by implementing a price-cap policy on iron ore entering the country. But after pressure from Australia - the home of Rio Tinto and BHP - the situation was diffused.

Most types of steel products saw prices rise last week under pressure from the iron ore talks, Baosteel's price increase and rumors of a reduction to the tax rebate.

The average steel product price was RMB 4,061 ($507.63) per tonne last week, up 1.12% from previous week but down 14% from last year.

Construction steel product prices averaged RMB 3,374 ($421.75) per tonne, up 2.27%; steel plate prices were RMB 4781 ($597.63) per tonne, up 0.95%; pipe prices were RMB 4,845 ($605.63) per tonne, up 1.11%; steel section prices were RMB 3375 ($421.88) per tonne, up 0.56%, according to the NDRC's price monitoring center.

In addition, Baosteel's third quarterly price policy, which raises core product prices by around 7%, also impacted steel product prices.

"Baosteel's product prices are basically benchmarks for other domestic steelmakers. We've seen significant steel product price increases in the domestic market after Baosteel announced its price policy," Hou said.

Also, rumors that China is going to decrease tax rebates on steel product exports also stimulated steel product prices for the short term.

Morgan Stanley's chief economist said Wednesday that government ties worked against the mills.

"Chinese steelmakers, which are state-owned, cannot win international negotiations with western-oriented business rules," Andy Xie, Morgan Stanley's chief economist in Asia, told Interfax Wednesday.

Xie said Chinese steelmakers, like other state-owned enterprises, are still unaccustomed to negotiations with foreign counterparts, although they have made greater strides in recent years.

"Companies can rarely gain advantages from government-appointed leaders who do not comprehend the international business strategies," Xie said.

Xie also said due to weak connections with upstream industries, Chinese steelmakers are in a feeble position compared with their foreign rivals during the iron ore price negotiations.

"The Chinese government should encourage its state-owned industrial companies to develop sources in their upstream sectors and pay more attention to preserving mineral and metals reserves," Xie said.

Zheng Dong, a steel analyst at Guosen Securities Co. Ltd., said Chinese steelmakers using Australian and Brazilian ore can afford limited higher production costs.

"For instance, Baosteel would only see a two-cent cost rise per share," Zheng said.

Zheng said major steel mills raised their product prices for the third quarter to counterbalance the potentially higher iron ore prices.

Baosteel's crude steel production costs will increase by only RMB 100 ($13) per tonne with the higher prices, Baosteel's Chief Financial Official Chen Ying said at a shareholders conference held on May 17.

"And the steel makers using domestic ores will escape the impact of the price hike by increasing the production of domestic iron mines," Zheng said.

[elwort] 22/5/2006 15:10

Another biswell ramp bites the dust!

[mkh200] 18/5/2006 09:43

Looks like I missed a few more lows elsworth.
You still hanging on to this dog or was that your sale at 7.18p this morning?

[mkh200] 03/5/2006 09:59

I don't hold but I did work atYandicoogina and you are not the first snake oil salesman I have read. You would have done a lot better since June 05 if you had gone for something speculative like.......RIO!


biswell - 24 Jun'05 - 12:48 - 28 of 100


SP now standing at Feb high, if it breaks above 10p then a gap up to 12p is my call.

If the Feasability study comes in + , and I expect it will, (and so does Byrne), then I see this share going to circa 24p in 3 months from now.

[biswell] 03/5/2006 09:18

Yes I know you have missed the low

Hard luck

B

[mkh200] 03/5/2006 08:14

Make no mistake this is a speculative high cost producer being developed around the zenith of a metals boom. The mine was abandoned by BHP after the extraction of 68m tonnes of the richest and most accessible reserves. There are three potential working areas two smaller,lower grade,more readily exploitable deposits and one larger,higher grade more difficult deposit.
The main reserve is the remnant of the BHP operation which extracted down to about sea level and is presently inundated. A seawall is required to be built on difficult geological ground conditions to seal the working area to allow de-watering and working. No production from here for at least 3 years and expensive production when it does start. eg more than 2t of water requires to be pumped for each tonne of ore extracted, explosive costs doubled due to the necessary use of waterproof explosives. difficult ground conditions on the footwall requiring stabilisation.
The estimated expenditure to start of production has increased by A$17 in 6 months, It is not only profit warnings that come in threes! Production is planned to build to 4mt/a over 3 years, all from the two lower grade deposits, while de-watering and development takes place on the main mine. With the mining machinery and labour markets highly stretched and fuel costs rising this may well be a cash sink in the first two years of production even if all goes to plan, does it ever?
All this with iron ore prices at a 25 year peak in real terms. At best a marginally profitable producer, at worst, failure or premature closure.

[biswell] 03/5/2006 08:12

Thanks Red

Perhaps when resources are increased as AZR have indicated is likely , you could put up a revised PER figure which hopefully will then agree with my number 4. At the time I did the maths iron ore had hit around $75 ish , and over the next 10 years I thought $100 might be about right as an average figure.

Chart is looking better of late is it not, and I think CBM at some point will make a move for the company. If as I hope and expect the share price of Aztec improves as contracts get signed....ore gets shipped....and extra resourses are detailed, the Mkt Cap gets bigger and CBM will have to find more money.

So the sooner the better for them I would have thought, which is why at this point in time AZR in my opinion represents a better punt that CBM itself which is fully valued now.

B

[red ninja] 03/5/2006 07:59

Latest brokers note on AZR website says PER will 9.5 for 2007 and 6.9 for 2008.



They are taking into account 2006 price rise and hopefully recent increases in equity.

[red ninja] 02/5/2006 18:02

Actual figures for reserves/mining from RNS are :-

Aztec (ASX:AZR) is the owner of the Koolan Island high quality iron ore project
which has a resource of 53 million tonnes. In August 2005, Aztec announced the
successful completion of a Bankable Feasibility Study. Capital costs of A$108
million, inclusive of mine development costs support a forecast annual
production of approximately 4 million tonnes per annum and Memoranda of
Understanding account for total sales of 4 million tonnes per annum, for the
current mine life of initial nine years with ongoing exploration drilling
expected to provide potential upside for the project.

Mine costs have gone up to A$125 million. I guess my expectations for Iron ore tonne may be too high ?

[red ninja] 02/5/2006 17:56

I think AZR are talking about 4 million tonnes a year based on 41 million tonne deposit based on most recent figures if I remember correctly. The first year production may start at a 2 miilion tonne level.

The price last year for Iron ore was US$54 if a previous article is to be believed. This year I would expect US$60+. The minsite article said that operating costs of A$30/tonne of ore = US$22.

In the first year profits before tax/royalties could be around US$38 x 2 million = US$72 million. Thus, in theroy if my maths is roughly correct we could clear mine cost A$108 in the first year.

[red ninja] 02/5/2006 17:32

Answer from article.

In support is the internal rate of return of 39.7 per cent before tax, and operating costs of A$30/tonne of ore giving an EBITDA of A$20/tonne,

[red ninja] 02/5/2006 17:30

In answer to the question.
What are the projected costs of mining a tonne of iron ore at Koolan.

[biswell] 02/5/2006 17:21

CBM now own 29% , why post the following ?


Red Ninja - 1 May'06 - 14:22 - 85 of 88


See the August 2005 minsite article mentions some figures.

Aztec Resources Publishes Greatly Improved Bankable Feasibility Study For Koolan Island Iron Ore Project


Good timing by AIM listed Cambrian Mining in May when it agreed to swap 60 million shares in AIM and Aussie listed Aztec Resources for a million shares in Asia Energy with RAB Special Situations (Master) Fund. Just to clarify the position this deal increases Cambrian's holding in Aztec to 18.7 per cent,

[red ninja] 02/5/2006 17:19

B,

Not aware any facts I have posted have been inaccurate.

CBM may buy all AZR as they did for AGD.
Its a possibility as the project looks like it will offer
quick payback.

[biswell] 02/5/2006 16:35

Red check your facts first before posting

Cambrian mining hold nearly 30% plus more options that means CBM may well buy the company to be able to offer a Coal/Iron Ore package deal

Cambrian Mining PLC - Aztec Granted Mining Leases
RNS Number:8795BCambrian Mining PLC24 April 2006 CAMBRIAN MINING PLC

Cambrian Mining ('the Company' or 'Cambrian') is pleased to refer shareholders to the following press release announced today by Aztec Resources.

Cambrian currently holds 214,191,562 ordinary shares in Aztec Resources, representing 29%of its issued capital, and 159,584,022 options (representing 37% of Aztec on afully diluted basis).

Aztec Resources Limited ('Aztec' or 'the Company')

Mining Leases Granted - Koolan IslandAztec Resources Limited (ASX & AIM Code: AZR) is pleased to announce that the Minister for Resources has granted Mining Leases 04/416 and 04/417 which are required for the construction and operation of the Koolan Iron Ore mine.The granting of the leases is a significant milestone in the development of the project and the Company anticipates that construction will commence on Koolan Iron at the end of April 2006.The Company acknowledges the assistance provided by the Department of Industryand Resources in achieving this milestone.For further information contact:Australia Peter Bilbe, Managing Director [phone] Ian Gregory, CompanySecretary [phone]UK Fiona Owen, Grant Thornton [phone]Visit: www.aztecresources.com.auAbout Aztec Resources LimitedAztec (ASX:AZR) is the owner of the Koolan Island high quality iron ore projectwhich has a resource of 53 million tonnes. In August 2005, Aztec announced thesuccessful completion of a Bankable Feasibility Study. Capital costs of A$108million, inclusive of mine development costs support a forecast annual production of approximately 4 million tonnes per annum and Memoranda of Understanding account for total sales of 4 million tonnes per annum, for the current mine life of initial nine years with ongoing exploration drilling expected to provide potential upside for the project.In 2000, Aztec was granted an exploration lease of the previously BHP-owned andoperated Koolan Island project, located 130 kilometres north of Derby off theWest Australian Kimberley coast. Koolan Island has remnant resources andpreviously produced 68 million tonnes of high grade (Fe @ 67%) and low impurity iron ore. Ends