Arthro Kinetics Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 04/9/2006 15:21

Hi LL,
yes but only a few.
The arthritis paragraph (post #80) caught my eye. It may be wishful thinking on my part, but any success there would transform the company, I think.

[learntlesson] 04/9/2006 14:46

Hiya jonwig hows things? Are you in this then? I'm warming to the idea more - the area of medicine if not the company - as a result of other medical advances. I imagine people living longer and longer with progress in fighting cancer and pulmonary diseases, the joints will increasingy be our nemesis.
They are physical and they will wear out, and I see little opportunity for drugs to remedy completely.

[jonwig] 02/9/2006 12:18

Mostly (August 2005) about sports injuries and how the CaReS® treatment can assist, but look at the last bit (Dr Thomas Graeve is Director of Research from Ars Arthro):

Graeve: "We still can't cure arthritis because it attacks the ligament and doesn't differentiate between healthy ligament and grafts. The new research project is also looking into the treatment of worn cartilage/ligaments and we are hoping to be able to treat the first arthritic patients in four to five years."

[jonwig] 02/9/2006 12:15

US market is a key way forward (August 2005)

As the first and only non American enterprise the Ars Arthro AG (Esslingen) receives approval to the IND [Investigational New Drug] application for the clinical application of the Cartilage-Regeneration Technology CaReS® in the US-American market from the American Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

[jonwig] 02/9/2006 08:06

123adv - as I suspected, the dip caused by some takers of quick, attractive profits.

[123adv] 01/9/2006 19:53

sold out at 63p - will wait nearer results good luck

[adgd2] 31/8/2006 07:58

Looks like we are on course for 450+ patients this year for CaReS which sounds good to me!

[jonwig] 30/8/2006 19:33

Good article mrg!



lists some companies involved in MISS. I've checked some P/E ratios:

Abbott Laboratories
Aesculap ... Polish research org
Arthrocare ... 52
Disc-O-Tech ... private co
Endius ... private co
J&J/DePuy Spine
Interpore Cross < Biomet ...24
Medtronic Sofamor Danek ... 22
Nuvasive ...180 (est for 2008, lossmaking now)
Smith & Nephew
Stryker Howmedica ... 29
Synthes ...36
Zimmer ... 22

I just chose the smaller outfits, as larger ones will have lots of other divisions.
So orthopaedic-related companies command pretty good ratings, at least in the US.

[mrg130] 30/8/2006 18:40

Interesting article on the company website yesterday (29th August 2006)....1000th patient successfully treated with CaRes.

Prof A Kroedel (director of orthopaedics, Krupp Hospital Essen, Germany)
"The CaReS product has expanded the surgical options at our disposal for treating cartilage defects of the knee and the results to date have been extremely positive and encouraging"

Link to page:



This all looks positive IMO with no problems identified within three years of use and 1000 patients. The product was a central part of the Australian Joint Venture RNS on 17th July which opened up markets in South East Asia. The RNS ends:

"During the initial 3 year term of the agreement, Arthro Kinetics expects this collaboration to generate 3 million euros in revenues for the initial CaRes product alone."

Looking good IMO

[jonwig] 30/8/2006 15:19

WEDNESDAY, 30 August 2006 - Arthro Kinetics plc ('Arthro Kinetics' or 'the
Company'; AIM ticker: 'AKI'), the pioneer orthopaedics company dedicated to
regenerating joint mobility and spinal disc function, announces its interim
results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2006 on Monday 25 September 2006.

[leopold555] 30/8/2006 10:35

Same here jonwig I can't see it being a husband and wife transfer. Just a guess I think. Still nice to gleen the sentiment of other PI's etc.

Leo

[jonwig] 30/8/2006 10:06

Thanks, Leo. I haven't come across that site before - must have a look around.
Trouble is, of course, many of the posters could be the same ones who post here and elsewhere, so you can just get recycled ideas. [This happens with i i quite a lot!]

I don't hold with the poster who said the 150k trade @ 30p could have been just a husband-wife transfer: if so it wouldn't have been an 'O' trade (and anyway not 30p), which went straight to the market-maker.
I'm not sure how it would have been marked, if it had been listed at all.

[jonwig] 30/8/2006 09:43

And all buys so far today.

Here's another interview with CEO Robert Guilleaume, dated March 2006, so a bit dated.
Even so, new to me:

[leopold555] 30/8/2006 09:31

Well nice moves north last few days :-)

[katylied] 29/8/2006 10:40

adgd2, the lock-in(s) apply to total of ~18,000,000 shares (this is made plain in the admission document). Around 5,000,000 were placed at 120p, which leaves another ~5,000,000 (pre-flotation shares), which could be fed into the market at any time, without breaching any prior agreement...

[kamitora] 29/8/2006 10:18

It's easy to suggest the original placing was overpriced in the light of the 50% fall recently, but for five months this traded near that price, so the market seemed to consider it fairly valued until that mysterious 150k sell caused chaos.

I agree there are a lot of regulatory hurdles to overcome and probably because I used to work in the industry (in orthopaedics including spinal) I'm not keen on investing in early stage medical companies - they are notoriously difficult to value. That said, the valuation for AKI and companies like it is pocket change to the company I used to work for and they buy them all the time - I think usually the moment they think the target company has some potentially integrate-able technology (that they don't want their competitors to have!) If AKI is successful with its products I'd be very surprised if they made it to profitability before being snapped up, so this is always going to be valued speculatively rather on fundamentals. Still, they do have a revenue stream which is more than a lot of companies in their position.

I haven't got around to looking at the company's main area of research in-depth but I know it's in a very desireable area. As for the surgical instruments produced for minimally invasive surgery, this should certainly be a substantially growing market because minimally invasive is very much the way forward for operative procedures for probably obvious reasons.

The only problem with surgical instruments in general (and minimally invasive instruments are no different) is an ongoing debate about the risks of patient-to-patient contamination as there is some evidence to suggest that modern methods of sterilising instruments are not 100% effective. There is a risk that governments will eventually mandate disposable instruments instead of re-usable ones which I don't believe AKI produce at the moment. In any case, this is only a secondary area of their business.

[katylied] 29/8/2006 10:13

No, not yet anyway... Bluster and
bravado doesn't work for moi...

[leopold555] 29/8/2006 10:11

So are you buying then Katylied? LOL

[katylied] 29/8/2006 10:10

Another company dealing in surgical implants is IIN. They seem to have have a hard time of it since flotation at end 2004. No doubt there are differences between the companies. However, the long regulatory issues are probably much the same. Whatever the reasons, the MMs are on the defensive here and I doubt it is simply due to a single 150K sale... Time (as usual) will tell...

[leopold555] 29/8/2006 10:10

damn finger was on the buy button at 62p :-( now going to cost me 65p for the second tranche

Leo

[adgd2] 29/8/2006 10:01

The vulture capitalists and directors are also tied in until next March, so no selling until then at the absolute earliest. Issuing of new share capital would no doubt dilute current shareholdings, but would allow for company growth, which is what I am looking for.

[leopold555] 29/8/2006 09:56

Why would VC's want to get out of a company that showed a 100% growth in 2005 and has just entered into a JV that could double its profits?

Leo

[katylied] 29/8/2006 09:39

Interesting situation jonwig. I note mktcap is still ~£17m and there are alot regulatory hurdles to get over (into 2008) before the company's potential can be realised. Only wonder is, how they got a placing away at £1.2/share in the firstplace? Still, diretors seem keen and apart from the fact my old dad has got very dodgy knees, I know jack-sh*t about this business. The admission placing was for only 18% of shares. So the rest must include a fair chunk (in % terms) of venture-capital. The collapse in the share-price, suggests the MMs believe those VCs are looking for an exit. Near term that could prove to be quite a drag on the share-price...

[leopold555] 29/8/2006 08:50

Excellent post jonwig thanks ;-)