Amey Share Discussion Threads

[alecjm] 06/1/2003 08:50

Lots of small buys this morning....

[slapmewithakipper] 05/1/2003 17:57

Day-dreamer sells his shares this is a very positive sign for Amey !

£1 here we go !! lol

[ildamiano] 04/1/2003 17:22

Thanks for that Martini. It certainly augurs well - the only cautionary note in the article states that the figures are contingent on there being no more surprises, and with another recent article stating that the Finance Director was ready to make a statement that there are no black holes in the accounts, it certainly looks promising. I think the break-up will happen sooner rather than later, as the institutions already hold at least 33%, and will likely make a push to cross the 50% figure and gain control.

[martini] 04/1/2003 11:19

ildamiano
Coverage in the Daily Mail for one under the headline "Break-up may double Amey's share price".
Now that would be a nice start to the New Year :)

[ildamiano] 03/1/2003 17:10

AMY trade of the day was undoubtedly the 1 million shares that changed hands. Judging by the subsequent 3% upward movement, it was snapped up by Mr. Tettamanti, giving him another 0.4% of the company. Expect an announcement to this effect on Monday or Tuesday. Hopefully the weekend press will have juicy goss of a raft of predator companies waiting to take-over the company at a tasty premium.

[day_dreamer] 03/1/2003 10:43

lol

Always the way :-))

Gravy

[snappy] 03/1/2003 10:31

Gravy ;-) now watch it rocket! LOL

murphys law

[day_dreamer] 03/1/2003 10:26

Decided after reading that excellent post on the other thread to take
a 15% profit on these snappy.
So I got some sleep last night :-))

Gravy

[snappy] 03/1/2003 10:21

Times
Rumour of the day: THUS (whispers that Newton, the fund manager, interested
in
building up a sizeable stake) - Tempus: AMEY (avoid), NEXT (hold), CAMBRIDGE
ANTIBODY (risky but worth buying)

[ildamiano] 03/1/2003 00:28

Hi all,

The fact that Staples has gone and has been replaced from within (by someone who is now double-jobbing) suggests to me that the company is about to be broken up. I also think that the break-up value of the company will be far in excess of the current 75 million market cap. I am more than content to leave my money in while Mr. Tettomanti (who is infinitely more experienced, more savvy and more rich than I!) does so.

[ildamiano] 02/1/2003 15:08

neg

Many thanks for the excellent post, even though I'm long. I think that the future picture is a very different one from the current state of affairs - with £850 million worth of business confirmed for 2003 PLUS the Tubelines contract, the profits should be much healthier. With a much more scrupulous cost and accounting system now in place, a margin of 7.5% is surely reasonable to assume, suggesting £75 million in EBITDA for 2003. Companies are usually valued at ten times future earnings, suggesting a shareprice (having allowed for borrowings of £200 million) of 220p! Figures like that show why Tito has got involved. I'm not suggesting for a minute that the company would sell for 220p per share in a take-over bid, but it shows just how undervalued the company is on potential earnings.

[day_dreamer] 02/1/2003 11:56

Great post !!!

Think I might take my profits !!

Gravy

[neg] 02/1/2003 11:50

For what it is worth here are my comments on Amey.

Earnings before interest tax and exceptionals are expected to be £27m. From this there are £15m of exceptional charges relating to bank interest charges from the broken convenants and I am assuming normal interest costs will be in the region of £22m. Then we have the balance sheet writedowns of £95m, but have a refund from Croydon of £20m. This leaves an overall loss of £85m. I have left out corporation tax as this is so uncertain at the moment there may be a charge of they may have a credit, overall i think it is more likely that they will have a charge, but I will leave this out. Therefore overall we have a loss of some £85m which will reduce net assets from £130m to £45m.

With regard to the bank borrowings we know that Amey expects to have a year end balance of some £190m to £200m after receiving £28m back from the London Tube venture. In the new year the company expects to receive around £30m/40m from PFI Investments and £10m from Vectra. This will reduce bank borrowings to around £150m, but they still need to invest £60m into the Tube project by 30 June this year.

With net assets down to £45m I think the company is in a lot of trouble, with gearing in excess of 300%. I don't think the banks will lend them anymore money so if they want to go ahead with the Tube project they will have to raise £60m from shareholders and with the market cap only £75m, this will obviously dilute existing shareholders very heavily. The other alternative is for the bank to carry out a debt for equity swap, as clearly the company cannot go ahead with such a large amount of debt.

I remain concerned that a lot of potential customers will no longer do business with Amey because of the high risks. So what about a takeover of the company? I'm afraid that I don't see anyone buying the company at anything like the current price because even the directors don't really know the financial position of the company and this remains still a very complicated business to understand particularly with all the contracts. Net assets per share on my calculations are only 18p a share, and this is before any writedown of Comax. Given the financial state of the company why would anyone pay more than net asset value? In the past the company has not generated particularly good levels of profits and on a cash flow basis it has been a disaster.

The good news from a shareholders point of view is that the bank borrowings are no longer the company's problem but the banks and I think that if they could get a significant repayment of their debts from the sale of these businesses and putting the company into receivership, I don't think for a moment that they will hestitate.

In short I think this company is a great sell at these levels, the company has too much debt and shareholders one way or another will have to share in that pain. It will be interesting to see how the auditors sign off the accounts in March, will they consider it to be a going concern. The banks support is crucial, but this in my view remains a very high risk stock as they could potentially pull the plug at any time and leave shareholders with nothing.

[day_dreamer] 02/1/2003 11:40

What's that saying...let your profits ride ???

With 7 mm's on 28p bid I can afford to do just that :-))

Gravy

[snappy] 02/1/2003 11:33

Not sure Gravy but I suspect if it can manage to rise there is likely to be a hell of a lot of selling into the rise but I do acknowledge that sentiment could be changing towards it now the chief is soon to be departed.

A few fresh faces on the board would help restore confidence rather than some of the cronies that are there at the moment (no names mentioned for political correctness of course)

[day_dreamer] 02/1/2003 11:29

I'm long from 25.9p the other day snappy but watching L2 closely on it.
House broker is on the bid which makes a change, is all the bad news now
out in the open ??

Gravy

[snappy] 02/1/2003 08:23

I think that'll be the high for the week already but as always I am ready to be proved wrong by the market

[alisonm] 02/1/2003 08:13

Well I'm back in - good luck to all

[day_dreamer] 01/1/2003 18:51

"A decision on management is expected before the final results in March. This would allow the sale of its equity investments in private finance initiative projects, and a deal to run part of the London Underground, to be completed. Amey said that if progress continued as planned, financial closure of the Tube contract could come today, allowing it to recoup £28m of bid costs"

Well 28 mil is a welcome boost for Amey should it happen and the share
could get back above 30p on that news.

Have to wait and see !!!

Gravy

[slapmewithakipper] 01/1/2003 18:37

Yes see FT today !!!!

[divina] 01/1/2003 10:28

Is Amey worth a punt?

[bionicman] 01/1/2003 09:28

Jarvis management actively buying shares in Amey! New Year bid in the pipeline from inside sources.

[thismonthonly] 31/12/2002 17:19

If anyone here is interested in increasing the exposure of this stock, you may want to consider starting a new board for it over at Investor's Hub. Memberships are free for the next month and there are lots of new members.



Happy New Year to everyone. Have a great 2003!