Alfred Mcalpine Share Discussion Threads

[bonzophil] 07/11/2007 17:40

we're now 40p below the offer price. Even if it is a mix of cash and shares, this seems too low. Does this mean the market thinks he offer will not go through?

[ed 123] 05/11/2007 17:21

Thanks, Mikey34 and miamisteve.

Yes, there is no certainty of any formal offer but the institutions want it to go through. If the US markets avoid a big correction I suppose CLLN will be worked back up to 400p and a formal offer for MCA will be made. In the meantime it could be worth a punt on CLLN if we see 380p again. That might be a safer play than a punt on MCA from here, although, imho it's highly likely that MCA will receive the expected bid. Sadly, there has been no other expression of interest. Perhaps the credit market has been a dampener?

[miamisteve] 05/11/2007 13:02

appears a good price for the pfi concessions . p/e x20+

Ed,

Don't worry about the price. I've been in these situations before. the banks involved manipulate the prices back to where they want them. when the deal is accepted carrilion will be around 400p. after that they will move up and down together.

[mikey34] 05/11/2007 11:36

Ed,

There is probably a bit of execution risk creeping into things as well, especially on the MCA share price.

[mikey34] 05/11/2007 11:20

gbb,

I had presumed(perhaps wrongly) that it would be at a price for CLLN shares on a specific day.....ie on the day the bid was agreed or becomes final or on some other specific date.

[gbb483] 05/11/2007 11:01

Just to enable a comparison.



The offer details:

[ed 123] 05/11/2007 11:00

Banks and miners are taking the FTSE100 down. MCA dropping in parallel with CLLN. Imho, CLLN needs to get its share price back to at least 400p - but that is very difficult in this broader market context. This is not as smooth as I would like.

[miamisteve] 03/11/2007 18:25

I don't envisage much if any earnings dilution when you take into account the cash element, the synergies and the strong growth coming from Mcalpine since slate.

The enlarged group will be a good hold imo.

[mikey34] 03/11/2007 16:04

Just had agood look at the key metrics on CLLN and I think I can live with holding their shares.CLLN are on a foeward P/E of about 13 compared to MCA on about 18. Price to sales ratio and return on capital employed also both quite a bit better.Add to this the expected synergies and things look pretty good IMO.

[galles] 03/11/2007 13:15

so it could potentially be more than 570p depending on the price of CLLN then. would you guys think it's a good idea to hold CLLN long term considering they are effectively diluting their EPS with more shares issued to fund this takeover?

[miamisteve] 03/11/2007 11:13

It will be around 1.1 carrilion shares + 164.25p.

I guess before the deal is formaly agreed they will manipulate the carrilion share price back up to 400p.

[gbb483] 03/11/2007 10:19

We would get shares in CLLN, though as Ed points out, they haven't said what ratio of MCA to CLLN and I've assumed 1 for 1.

[galles] 03/11/2007 01:47

Has anyone hold shares of companies that had been taken over? Just wondering what would happen to our shares? Would we have to sell at 570p? Or they would give us CLLN shares (equivalent no. of shares)?

[mikey34] 02/11/2007 18:23

Slightly disappointed the bid didn`t start with a 6. Reasonably happy to hold CLLN in future.

[ed 123] 02/11/2007 16:52

The offer says 25% cash and the balance in Carillion shares. The number of new Carillion shares has not been stated.

I imagine CLLN's share price will rise next week, wider market permitting.

MCA didn't rise as much as it might have done - suggests for the moment no other bidder on the horizon. Plenty of time left.

[gbb483] 02/11/2007 16:37

Well the offer's in the open, 146.25p and a CLLN share for each MCA share. So that values MCA at about 536. This might be the time to sell up and reinvest directly into CLLN.

[ed 123] 02/11/2007 16:09

Everyone out? Or busy selling MCA and buying CLLN?

[miamisteve] 02/11/2007 10:28

Any other interested party would wait for the slate deal to be put to bed. They need to know how much cash is coming in before deciding to trump carillion.

[ed 123] 02/11/2007 08:19

We've not seen any private equity white horse galloping into view. So much for my guesswork. :-(

Initial small dip this morning, then support came back.

Yes, a little bit longer till news on slate. The news could trigger another expression of interest. We'll see.

[miamisteve] 02/11/2007 05:17

I'd imagine that the sale of slate must be coming to completion. The 2nd and final round of the auction should be completed by the end of next week.

[gbb483] 23/10/2007 16:41

So we just get an announcement of a stock holding, as of 7th Feb !! announced on 23rd Oct !! of Standard Life previously holding 3.13% of MCA and subsequently holding less than 3%!!

At least that means they have less control than we first suspected.

[ed 123] 21/10/2007 21:34

Comment from The Observer:-

[ed 123] 20/10/2007 22:49

Comment from today's Times:-



Telegraph's contribution:-