Afren Share Price - AFR
|Share Name||Share Symbol||Market||Type||Share ISIN||Share Description|
|Afren Plc||LSE:AFR||London||Ordinary Share||GB00B0672758||ORD 1P|
|Price Change||Price Change %||Share Price||Bid Price||Offer Price||High Price||Low Price||Open Price||Shares Traded||Last Trade|
|Industry Sector||Turnover (m)||Profit (m)||EPS - Basic||PE Ratio||Market Cap (m)||RN||NRN|
|Oil & Gas Producers||607.1||-1,255.0||-94.5||-||19.77|
Afren News, Charts, Forums & Trades
|11/8/2015||15:04||ALNC||Afren Tries To Reassure Shareholders As It Puts Assets Up For Sale|
|10/8/2015||17:23||ALNC||UPDATE: Afren Exits London Stock Exchange As Shares Are Delisted|
|10/8/2015||13:33||ALNC||UPDATE: Afren Exits London Stock Exchange As Shares Are Delisted|
|10/8/2015||12:36||ALNC||Afren Exits London Stock Exchange As Shares Are Delisted|
|10/8/2015||08:00||UKREG||Official List Cancellation - Afren PLC|
|31/7/2015||10:53||ALNC||Final Nail In The Coffin For Afren As It Enters Administration|
|31/7/2015||10:42||ALNCF||Alliance News Flash Headline|
|31/7/2015||10:39||UKREG||Afren PLC Corporate update|
|27/7/2015||07:00||UKREG||Afren PLC Update on General Meeting|
|21/7/2015||17:07||ALNC||Afren Confirms Suspicions By Postponing Critical Shareholder Meeting|
Afren Share Charts
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|12/8/2015||11:44||AFR Share holders diluted out of any value soon||1,048|
|12/8/2015||11:21||Afren new thread.||166,104|
|31/7/2015||21:40||DECIDED TO PILE INTO AFREN AND VOTE NO..COMPANY WORTH 20X CURRENT VALUE||131|
Afren Top Chat Posts
|jumbone: Afren (AFR) Shares Could Climb to 18p But Longer-Term Outlook Remains Weak
Written by Lou Charlton
Published: 23 February 2015
Afren share price outlook
Above: Afren employees on the Ebok field.
Technical studies of Afren Plc (LON:AFR) confirm a mild upside bias remains preferred for those adopting a short-term posture (2 to 6 week timeframe).
Active technical events in this timeframe favour gains with 4 bullish indicators being relevant compared to one negative event being present.
Support is seen at 8p – the consolidation above here seen since the start of 2015 will continue to encourage tentative buying interest in the stock as this provides a decent exit point for traders looking to manage risk.
Speculative players could use the current consolidation to bet that an improvement in oil prices could foreshadow a stronger recovery in AFR.
However, it must be noted though that a longer-term analysis of AFR confirms a stock that is caught in overwhelmingly negative momentum.
As such any long approach to the share price should be considered within strictly short-term timeframes at present.
Weekly charts confirm momentum is negative with the M(12) reading at -36.
Furthermore, the Afren share price is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages located at 45, 96 and 120p at the current time.
We look for breaches of at least the 20 and 50 day MA’s before making a longer-term buy on the stock.
|ldlv: Open letter from Wild Wolf to the General and wife:Dear Sir/ MadamWe are respectfully writing to you regarding a matter of mutual interest and mutual benefit.We represent hundreds of disgruntled small private investors in Afren PLC.It is our genuine belief that we just are the tip of the iceberg and there are tens of thousands of other affected investors who are of the same belief that shareholders are being cheated currently out of their investments and we want to make a stand against this.We also are contacting the required regulatory authorities to assist us in stopping these crimes from being completed.A continued and ever increasing media campaign will ensure that this will continue to be publicised until investigated and the truth of the mysterious behaviour of the Afren executive and their colluding friends to crash the share value of the company, will become public knowledge and any criminality will be made accountable. As you are no doubt aware, Afren suffered from previous over exposure to CAPEX investment, some irregular activities of the historic Boards of Directors and the temporary slump in oil prices.It is our opinion that these problems were exaggerated and a campaign of misinformation and manipulation and accounting falsifications have provided an excuse for a premeditated raid attempt by certain bondholders and financial institutions working in concert, to enable an attempt to steal the company using a host of dubious methods and puppet directors and to then sell the asset base on, cutting shareholders out of the equation and cheating them from the proceeds of their investments.Already this attack on the company (perhaps on behalf of a yet unnamed ultimate beneficiary) have resulted in the loss of 95% of the shareholder value of the company already and further losses of another 90% with the threat of the company's demise.We intend to fight this theft of shareholder value and bring those responsible to account.Just because they chose a company with a massive small investor base (mainly pensioners and average working class people) who they felt would be easiest to defraud, does not mean we have to accept their theft. We wont and we intend to fight to get a better offer for existing shareholders regardless of their threats.We have sufficient and an ever growing amount of evidence of a catalogue of crimes and breaches of duty and multiple examples of share price and information manipulation compile|
|arbez: Afren Shares Still Waiting for that Break-Out Details Written by Rob Shelton Category: Finance Last Updated: 23 April 2015 Afren breakout The Afren plc share price (LON:AFR) remains confined to an extremely tight trading range and the patience of investors continues to be tested. Strategically the placement of a stop-loss at 0p appears to be an attractive proposition for traders: Should AFR recover to the 2015 opening share price at 47p then a very attractive risk-reward ratio becomes apparent. However, such a move remains elusive as even an improvement in crude oil prices has failed to prompt any buying interest of significance. Of course further declines should by no means be discounted. Technical analysts at Trading Central suggest that should a breakout below the pivot level at 2.5p be achieved then a run lower to 1.7p and 1.3p could occur. It is noted that the only momentum discernible at the present time on the Afren share price is sideways in nature with signals being mixed and advocating for neither substantial gains nor losses. The waiting game continues, but as we said, the risk-reward on AFR that would come on a successful bet on an upside breakout remains extremely attractive.|
|zac_mo: From LSE and he best piece I have read for a while.
Why You’d Be Mad To Buy Afren Plc Now
MOTLEY FOOL ( 4 hours ago ).
Afren updated us this morning with a review of its capital structure
ER READ THE RNS IT SAYS ITS CONTINUING POSITIVELY
The company was famously dogged by corrupt management
LAST YEARS NEWS -ALL REPLACED
Although the price has picked up since its January lows, oil at around $60 a barrel doesn’t help any producers.
EXCEPT ONES LIKE AFREN THAT CAN PRODUCE AT 14$ A BBL.
And it’s especially painful for small explorers like Afren
NICE JIBE…..WE ARE A PRODUCER WITH 32,000 BOPD>
, and the firm’s earnings are expected to crash to almost nothing this year.
NO, CURRENTLY ON COURSE FOR $300m GROSS PROFIT…..PLUS CAPEX SLOWED>
The share price has, unsurprisingly, plummeted,
TAKE A LOOK MATE ITS UP 20% TODAY/
and at around the 10p mark it’s down 95% over the past 12 months. But after this morning’s news, it’s back up 17.5%. Why?
I'M SURE YOU HAVE A THEORY
Afren is technically in default on its debts
NO ITS NOT….NEVER DEFAULTED…THIS WAS AN AGREED EXTENSION
, but its lenders have not pulled the rug from under it yet.
OR THREATENED TO<<br />
Afren was also due to pay $15m in bond interest on 1 February, but it is further extending a grace period on that payment while it continues its review of its capital structure and funding requirements. You might all see this as merely delaying the inevitable
It would be easy enough for Afren’s creditors to force it into bankruptcy
|jumbone: An in depth view into the world of AIM.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Happy Halloween Afren Holders.
I wasn’t going to say much about Afren, but it was a really interesting set of events this morning from a market psychological point of view.
Let’s get things straight, Afren had a silly leak. It happened outside of working hours. It happens and lots of different companies fall for it. Indeed you can download software which will search a website for any files that do not have permissions and simply haven’t been linked to yet. It is not illegal to go to a publically accessible website and look at a file which isn’t linked to yet is accessible to the public. So a bit of a mistake but nothing too bad.
Now on to the actual news event..The RNS!
"In light of the Company's current liquidity position and in order to preserve cash while the review of the Company's capital structure and funding alternatives is completed, the Board has decided, at the expiration of the 30 day grace period, not to pay US$15m of interest which was due on 1 February 2015 under its 2016 Notes. While such non-payment will result in a default under the 2016 Notes, this will not result in an immediate obligation to repay such 2016 Notes or any cross-default under its 2019 Notes or 2020 Notes or its other debt facilities."
This makes two important points. The board has decided to default on its bond. This is not good news. However this could be for several reasons. It could be that the RCF deferral was dependent on stopping bond payments. It could be the company has simply decided to call the bluff of the bondholders and are saying, so what if I default. IMHO this reduces the pressure of the bond holders as it shows their scare stories of administration and calling in collateral are simply not going to happen at least in the short term.
For me the last sentence is the most important…A default in the 2016 bonds, does not trigger any kind of automatic default or consequences elsewhere in the business or its debt profile. This leaves the 2016 bond holders rather toothless.
"The Company has received assurances from the ad hoc committee (which members hold in aggregate approximately 55% of the principal face amount of the 2016 Notes and 44% of the total principal face amount of the 2016 Notes, 2019 Notes and 2020 Notes) that the committee has no current intention to take enforcement action with respect to the 2016 Notes held by its members as a result of the failure to make payment of interest due under the 2016 Notes, in the hope and expectation that agreement can shortly be reached with the Company and its key stakeholders on the terms of a consensual restructuring that would preserve the Group and its business as a going concern for the benefit of all stakeholders."
The bond committee is not made up of the majority of 2019 and 2020 note holders….this is important. Any deal will pay off the 2016 bond holders and the RCF. Even then the adhoc committee is barely 50% of all the holders. This again weakens the hand of the bondholders.
Again of most importance is the last part of the sentence where the bondholders have no intention of enforcement actions because it hopes a deal can be made for the benefit of ALL stakeholders. This indicates that there will be a benefit to Share Holders as they are a major stakeholder. This is NOT what the bondholders have been saying up to this point. It now becomes very very unlikely that shareholders will be “wiped out” to quote a certain news article.
"The Company is continuing constructive discussions with the advisers to, and members of, the ad hoc committee of its largest bond holders, the coordinating committee of the lenders under its US$300m Ebok debt facility and its other lenders regarding the immediate liquidity and funding needs of the business. It is expected that any agreement with the Company's bond holders and debt providers regarding the provision of interim and longer term funding and a broader consensual restructuring is likely to result in economic terms associated with the new funding and/or the issue of new equity which will substantially dilute the interests of the Company's current shareholders. "
So there will be substantial dilution….Yes we have always known that. Nobody invests $300-500m in a company with a Market Cap of less than £100m without there being substantial dilution. The substantial dilution was always the reason why the Share Price fell from 100p to the sub 10p. The question is how much dilution is going to happen? For Afren to maintain its stock market listing 25% of the company must be in public hands. So a realistic assumption is that we will end up with 75% of the company in the hands of the a third party and 25% with the current shareholders….
Given this the real question is what is an Afren, with no debt due before 2019, with 40-50K BOPD output and with a capital injection of $300-500m for 75% of the company actually worth….
Personally I would put a minimum price of 1bn on the above, this would give the current shareholders a share worth approx. 250m or 20p or so a share. Of course the dilution could be lower than this and a firm case could be made for the company being worth considerably more….But this is far above the current trading price.
"While the Company is also having discussions with its other stakeholders and third party investors regarding interim funding and recapitalising the Company, the Board believes that an agreement between the Company's creditors presents the most likely solution to the immediate issues facing the business. There can be no certainty that an agreement will be reached."
Code for any third party investors need to get their act together and put in a firm bid pronto.!
For investors the RNS doesn’t make particularly good reading, particularly for those people who have had their heads in the sand with talk of £1 a share. However in reality it actually reduces the risk of a total wipe out of shareholder value and anybody below 20p is likely to see a profit if they hold over the short term and probably a much better profit longer term.
Dilution was always going to happen.
For those that believed the vultures and scum who came on the board at 7.00am until 8.00am talking about 2p, sell straight away etc and sold for sub 6p only to see the share price rise above 7p 30 mins later, then I hope you learnt an important lesson.
Do your research, stick to your plans unless something material happens and remember share trading is unfortunately dominated by crooks, greedy liars and people you would never listen to if they came knocking at your door, so don’t listen to them they are simply dressed up to scare you!
Posted by icebergshares at Wednesday, March 04, 2015
|davius: Disagree with your comment about placing and likely share price, Lobo. Whilst in many cases the share price falls to the equilibrium level, the share price for Afren is exceptionally low due to the fear that existing equity could be worthless. A $250m fund raising now would not result in a company worth $250m, it would be worth substantially more as not only would it be in a comparable position it was in December (when the shares were trading in the 40s and the oil price was at the current level), but it would also have had a significant cash injection. So let's assume $250m raised at 8p a share, that would roughly treble the number of shares. In December we were worth around $600m, so ignoring the additional $250m cash injection, take the cap back to $600m and the shares are worth 13p+. Add the $250m to the market cap and they are worth 18p+. My own view is that they'll probably go for a combination. Maybe a placing at around the 10p level to raise perhaps $100m, then a renegotiation of the Ebok loan, perhaps with the first $50m amortisation paid off and the rest rolled into a new three year deal. Less dilution, banks get some cash back now, share price recovers significantly so those taking placed shares are immediately in profit, everyone's happy. (Bond holders can go hang for now, they aren't relevant this year apart from their interest payments). It's possible that if someone is lined up to take placed shares, they are the ones selling into the market with borrowed stock. They would have no need to buy them back as they will be receiving newly issued shares, and will already have derisked ahead of the formal placing. There are so many options, the board will deserve shooting if they can't find a solution.|
|soul limbo: http://www.shareprop|
|mallorca 9: Afren share price spikes as oil firm pledges to reveal new chief executive "imminently" by Catherine Neilan1 April 2015 2:42pm Afren Afren: Expects to finalise arrangements for completion of the interim funding imminently (Source: Getty) Afren will reveal the name of its future chief executive along with its full-year results "imminently" - as soon as it has ink a deal with its bondholders, the troubled oil explorer said today. The firm is still trying to hammer out a deal with investors for $200m-worth (£135m) of interim funding in the form of the super-senior private placement notes (PPNs). Afren had expected that the deal would have been agreed by now and the notes were due to be issued by the end of March. It said: The company is making good progress on satisfying the relevant conditions precedent to the provision of the interim funding and expects to finalise arrangements for completion of the interim funding imminently. Given the delay in completion of the interim funding, the company now expects to release the Group’s 2014 full year results at the same time as the issue of the PPNs. The company also expects to be able to announce the appointment of a new CEO at the same time. Afren has also pushed back payment of $50m, which was originally due on January 31, until April 30. Afren's share price spiked at 9.7 per cent earlier today, with a second spike this afternoon of 8.4 per cent.|
|goldilocks1: here's another one for you rabids to hate .... a note from a decent quality broker-analyst values AFR at 3p and that assumes oil at $80 ..... details all below Oriel note today: "Based on our core NAV analysis and given company's large debt position, we estimate there is no equity value in the shares at sub $80/bbl oil price. Therefore we value the shares assuming a debt-for-equity swap in which the current shareholders would receive 5% of the restructured entity. We see two scenarios going forward: 1) In light of the improving oil price, a third party injecting $65m of new equity, temporarily protecting the company from its creditors. We see this as a less likely scenario. 2) The company proceeds with a debt restructuring process. At this stage this appears as a more likely scenario. In either of two scenarios we would expect a downward pressure on the share price. In the first scenario, we believe that it would be reasonable to expect that a potential new capital injection would only be done at a discount to the current share price. In the second scenario, if restructuring is indeed on the table, the shareholders would in that case be at the mercy of the bondholders. The current market cap represents c15% of the bond’s face value. We doubt in a restructuring process the bondholders would be sufficiently generous to give the shareholders much more than this." This is how they calculated it: "Value of assets at $80pb excl debts = $1413m Value of assets at $60pb excl debts = $656m Estimate of restructured Co would be worth (av of above) = $1035m Afren's current shareholder potential share % = 5% Afren's current shareholder potential share $ = $52m F/X rate $/£ = 1.56 Afren's current shareholder potential share £ = £33m Shares outstanding = 1108m Value per share 3p"|
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