Eurozone Confidence Wanes as U.K. Sentiment Rebounds
30 August 2016 - 11:20AM
Dow Jones News
Businesses and consumers in the eurozone became less upbeat
about their prospects in August, while their British counterparts
perked up as the likely impact of the U.K.'s June vote to leave the
European Union was reassessed.
The changes in sentiment partly reversed those in July, when
British businesses and consumers initially reacted with alarm to
the Brexit vote, while their eurozone counterparts were untroubled
by the unprecedented decision.
The swings in mood underline how difficult it has been to settle
on a clear assessment of the vote's likely impact, given that
negotiations between the U.K. and the rest of the EU on their
future economic relationship have yet to start.
The near-term economic impact of the vote will, in part, depend
on where sentiment settles, since a sustained weakening of
confidence would likely cause businesses and consumers to cut back
on spending.
The European Commission on Tuesday said its Economic Sentiment
Indicator for the eurozone—which aggregates measures of consumer
and business confidence—fell to 103.5 in August from 104.5 in July.
That was a larger decline than the drop to 104.1 expected by
economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. It was the lowest
reading since March, but remained well above its average going back
to 1990 of 100.0, indicating relative optimism among businesses and
consumers.
By contrast, the U.K.'s ESI rose to 104.0 from 102.6, recouping
some of the ground lost in July, while remaining well below the
levels seen in the months leading up to the June 23 vote.
The decline in eurozone sentiment is one of the first
indications that the prospect of a U.K. departure from the EU may
weaken an already modest economic recovery. Surveys of businesses
in the months since the vote have recorded a slight pickup in
economic activity.
Minutes from their July meeting recorded that European Central
Bank policy makers then believed the Brexit vote had created "new
headwinds" for the eurozone economy, but wanted to wait until the
extent of the economic disruption became clearer before deciding
whether to provide additional stimulus.
They next meet on Sept. 8, but the modest drop in confidence is
unlikely to give them a clear sign that the economy is set to
slow.
In the U.K., measures of activity recorded a sharp slowdown in
July, but other indicators since then have been more mixed, with
some pointing to continued strength in household spending. The
commission's measure of consumer confidence did record a slight
pickup in August, although it remained well below the June level.
There were also partial recoveries in sentiment among
manufacturers, service providers, and retailers. However,
confidence among construction companies deteriorated sharply.
Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 30, 2016 06:05 ET (10:05 GMT)
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