Zirax Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 18/4/2008 18:26

When PI have made their pile in the current hot stocks and start looking around for those under the radar, once ZRX appears on their screens, it will undoubtedly be in the top 10 to buy. We know the demand is there,a hiccup in ramping up production is merely that.

[koolio] 18/4/2008 12:11

I agree with all that is said above but, the price keeps falling and I sold 2/3 of my holding at a loss. It may take some time before this company is taken seriously, that's a shame because they are doing everything very well. IMO.

[lecks17] 17/4/2008 18:32

this weeks rhp email

As Garry reported last week, broker Hasnon Westhouse has
reduced its forecasts for this year's earnings, owing to
delays in getting Zirax's new Rosignano plant up to full
capacity. This is disappointing but does not alter the
basic picture which is that Zirax is rapidly growing its
sales of oilfield processing chemicals and de-icing
chemicals, and is selling into a market in which demand
exceeds supply. An important consequence will be that
the proportion of Zirax's earnings that are coming from
Russia and in particular the de-icing contract for the
city of Moscow will gradually fall. This should lead to
a rerating of the shares which trade on just 5.5 times
forecast earnings for 2009 - very low even allowing for
the 'Russia factor.' BUY

[whonosewhy] 13/4/2008 16:03

I would imagine that the Annual Report may tell us more detail on Cargill.

The Moscow Contract seems pretty universally accepted as the 5th one in a row, the previous years was announced as the 4th. The contract has been in place since before the IPO. IPO document states the company had won 3 consecutive when it was prepared prior to Dec 05 launch. 7th Aug 06 they announced retaining the 4th consecutive time. So Pre IPO 3 times , 4th announced Aug 06 and 5th Announced Dec 07.

I am quoted as saying I have not got a clue what is going on with Pennygold and Metropol and I am sticking to that ! I have no clue.

I just hope the small shareholders do not now get squeezed to lower share prices because the company has done what it said in the IPO and used the funds raised to increase the product available by expanding the Volgograd plant getting the Rossignol plant up and running and buying the Austrian company and any capacity it has.

They have upped the capacity of product they can produce dramatically they have no debt and money in the Bank.

The small number of private investors by percentage free could look an easy target at low share price levels in the current market for a cheap buy back into private hands.

Maybe I've spent too much time listening to people who are cynical about the markets?

[arturobechstone] 13/4/2008 13:17

Two questions according to the Final results.
Have you an idea why ZRX didn't give an update on the Cargill JV?
Why are they talking about the "fifth moscow de-icing contract" ; to my understanding they had won 4 consecutive contracts with Moscow yet?

Further I would like to know your opinions about the games between Metropol and Pennygold. The latter is a subsidary of Metropol - so what is this all about?

I regard it as fairly positive that Management/Board members havn't sold one stock so far and still holding 141.625 mln shares or 82.2%. The Swedish fund seems to hold its 3% stake as well and Metropol/Pennygold hold some more 9.65% which leaves a float of just 4.15% or 8.875 mln shares. This stock is so tightly held that a bit of appreciation would give it a boost.

Thx for clarification

Arturo

[azalea] 11/4/2008 08:15

Lecks17
Many thanks for the input. That's 3 tipsheets in the same week all saying buy!

[lecks17] 10/4/2008 18:10

red hot penny shares update (emailed out tonight)

Zirax posted a very good set of preliminary results.
Margins were ahead of expectations and pre-tax profits
increased by nearly 35% to $5.3m in the year to 31
December 2007. Broker Hanson Westinghouse has trimmed its
full-year 2008 forecast after the numbers as it now
expects output from its Rosignano operation would take
longer than originally anticipated to reach full capacity
in 2008. The broker cut its earnings per share estimate
for 2008 by 29% to 1.28p, but with a ramp-up in production
expected in 2009 earnings are expected to rise to 1.95p
per share. This leaves the stock trading on a forward 2009
multiple of 5.5 times. These shares look great value. BUY
UP TO 16p.

[whonosewhy] 10/4/2008 17:41

I'm weighing up selling my Enodis that have done me proud with a gain today of over 50% !! The proceeds could be heading this direction at these prices but it feels like putting lots of my eggs in this basket.

Trying to make my mind up. I actually think that following the bad press on the previous Moscow Contract the Moscow City Council might announce quickly and not rock the boat this time - which should be good for Zirax.

[azalea] 10/4/2008 16:50

cestnous
Many thanks.

[cestnous] 10/4/2008 16:37

Shares Mag today says 'absolute steal at this price' (or something like that from memory.)
Info only, as I'm not in this.

[azalea] 10/4/2008 15:35

Who knows. The shares are undoubtedly undervalued but we need to see further orders. I note that ZRX is the second largest global supplier of chloride pellets.demand is outstripping supply, with 52% of its sales going to oil companies. With production now ramping up to 175k tonnes and a very important footprint established in the EU (Austria), I think the next Interims could show further improvements. Whilst Moscow City Council might put its requirements out to tender each year, I think ZRX has proved itself as the preferred supplier.

[whonosewhy] 10/4/2008 15:11

That seems to be part of the 632k sold by Pennygold I guess.

I just wonder if something is going on here? Major shareholders with shares changing hands and this after a steep fall for no real apparent reason?

Fingers crossed something good rather than something bad is going on.

[azalea] 10/4/2008 14:03

Metropol UK adds a modest 410k.

[whonosewhy] 08/4/2008 18:12

Perhaps we are seeing a possible reason for the fall. Pennygold have now sold about 2M shares since mid August by my quick reckoning.

I guess this could be an overhang and as they had 11.75m shares at 16 Aug 07 and now down to 9.72M I guess the question is where will they stop?

Their last sells were Aug 07 about a month before the results and this sell is just after the result announcement. Perhaps significant?

I quick add up suggests that there must be some more of the 632,000 sold in this RNS still floating around to buy so I am not expecting to see the price rise just yet.

On the fundamentals the Moscow Contract was announced as early as April/May time in previous years so maybe we will not hav eto wait too long this time. The Russian elcetions and the argument of infringing patent rights to deicing product appear t o have caused a delay in both obtaining the contract and payment for it.

I guess as the results also say the amount is lower it is probably for two reasons - increased competition for the contract and milder Winters.

The last figures announced were $12.5M for that contract.

On a bigger picture the company has delivered what it wanted when it IPO'd and surely this far below the share price in Oct 05 would suggest this price is artificially low. The market in general has not fallen that far.

Apart from the Moscow Contract I can't see much of concern except possibly a comment that production in Italy has taken a bit longer than expected to get up to Full production. That is being quite picky I think to try and find something negative.

The end result still seems to be they can't make the product fast enough to meet the market demand.

Fingers crossed for an early announcement on the Moscow contract that will see us through to end 2008 profits being in line with predidictions and ever increasing sales to oilfield markets.

[azalea] 08/4/2008 15:46

Hanson Westhouse ptx forecast - 2008 $6.25m and 2009 $9.5m

[azalea] 08/4/2008 09:37

IC 7/4 - hit by sell offs across the smaller companies sector, but with end markets still buoyant and extra production coming through, they remain a buy.

Demand for its core product -calcium chloride continues to outstrip supply in its markets. Sales to the oil andgas industry accounted for more than half its revenues for 2007

I am not worrying about the Moscow contract, which ZRX continues to secure.

[stegrego] 07/4/2008 20:03

Seems a better buy than at 14p, but the Moscow effect wont go away that easily.

Having said that, if i wasnt fully invested, id probably pick some up at this level....

[masurenguy] 07/4/2008 17:59

While the Moscow de-icing contract continues to constitute such a significant element of the business this will always be the case. This will matter less as they diversify but this could take a year or two to become effective.

[myopia] 07/4/2008 17:22

shareholders will only have to wait till december now to see if they win the moscow contract again. If they do then the share price could really move up a little bit! until the worries about whether they'll win it the year after set in again. that's the problem with this company i'm afraid. and them not winning the moscow contract doesn't bear thinking about really.

[koolio] 07/4/2008 16:07

Can't see why they remain at this price. real company producing real product for oil industry and municipal gov, so it's not like their customers are going to have a down turn in revenue. Cash in hand but share price not responding to news flow. If they were to up sticks and move it to China the market would all be screaming over the figures out today. I'm still with you guy and think this company is a right little earner.

[philjeans] 07/4/2008 12:31

Must be a big overhang; buys aren't shifting the price at all.

Still think this is a big winner.

[whonosewhy] 07/4/2008 09:31

Masurenguy - 7 Apr'08 - 09:06 - 148 of 150


Looks promising but:
a) Historic PE circa 10 - not expensive but not cheap either in this climate either.
b) Overdependence on domestic Russian market (80% of sales)
c) Moscow de-icing contract still a critical part of the business

Still remains on my Watchlist for the time being !

Good points Masurenguy.

My historic concern has been the Moscow contract but the company have stated that they were trying to build the oilfield process side to counteract the reliance on the Moscow contract.

They have gone soe way to achieving that with 52% now Oilfield based.

The Russian Market bias is why they have deliberately aimed for the base in Italy and the acquisition in Austria with a view to getting a closer geographical base for sales to Africa and the Middle East oilfield processes.

I am averaging out by adding small amounts monthly.

[philjeans] 07/4/2008 09:25

which means they are highly geared to trades from PIs - either buys or sells.

I like 'em anyway.

[bookworm1] 07/4/2008 09:21

With 93.4% of the shares held by significant shareholders there is not much left over for PI's.