Zanaga Iron Ore Share Discussion Threads

[kirk 6] 02/10/2017 20:48

4.75p to buy after 4pm today hopefully break 5p tomorrow

[kirk 6] 02/10/2017 19:32

Agreed 7-10p likely on any kind of bounce and 10-15p on permit approvals

[tadtech] 02/10/2017 19:15

Interesting that the MM'ers widened the spread late today 3.85p-4.75p.

I have seen this action before in a few totally illiquid stocks like Zanaga. Usually means they either have a large buy to fill or maybe a distressed T20 short wanting to close out??

Any type of demand here could take this to 7p-10p in a flash.

[katylied] 02/10/2017 18:58

Some potential more action (not ZIOC) coming tomorrow boys. Some of you cave dwelling Pumper Dumpers must have realised by now, that you are in the wrong metal. I mentioned some time back that certain specialist metals have been doing exceptionally well lately. However it isn't easy to get exposure, or do so at a low price these days.

Around that time, I also mentioned ncondezi NCCL which had you taken a punt at that time (were you lucky punk?), you would have now got back at least 100% profit. Some think it will go higher still, but I'm not greedy. I cashed in my punt a few days back for a 2+ bagger (I was in rather earlier at just 1.5p per share).

OK, so what is happening tomorrow? Still my favorite growth share is Bushveld Minerals (BMN). This company has significant Fe, Ti, V and Sn (it has coal as well, but like the Fe, currently 'that don't impress me much'). Anyway, because none of those assets except V has any production, the market values them at zilch. A phenomenon you guys must be all too familiar with. Bushveld's current valuation is entirely to do with their share of the Vametco Nitrovan facility (which includes a working mine) in Brits South Africa. share price Angel very conservatively estimated BMN's Vametco share at ~14p/share recently, while Bushveld are actually still trading at under 10p/share.

Today after hours, Bushveld announced that in November 2017, they are going to demerge their Tin (Sn) assets into a new AIM company called AfriTin. Tin is a metal, that while not stellar to date, has been looking frisky. The center piece of the Tin assets (there are several) is ~49% (with options to own more) of the old UIS mine in Namibia. This mine is close to reopening, it has all the required permits and even some limited pilot production has recently been reported.

So what is the deal? When the demerger occurs, every share owned in Bushveld (BMN) will get you 1 share in AfriTin. Basically, a sort of BOGOF deal. In effect, this demerger should realise some value in the Tin assets. It should not have a negative effect on the BMN SP, as the current share price does not really include anything other than Vametco.

Clearly, this scenario means that when markets open tomorrow the BMN share price could well go higher, as people buy in to benefit from a future share windfall in AfriTin. No guarantee obviously (this is after all AIM), but it could be a good opportunity to finally cut your losses in ZIOC and get into something sensible.

Naturally, I have a vested interest. If the BMN share price goes up, I benefit.

Over and out...

[emptyend] 02/10/2017 18:03

In regards to the price for the sale of the asset, based on it being one of the world's leading iron ore assets I would be surprised if it were to sell for less than $100m (fire sale price), with my estimate being somewhere between $200m-$300mYes....that is in line with my own thinking. Look at the amount of money spent on getting it to this point - and IMO that sets a floor at somewhere over $100mn.Good points also re the limited free float. I was too early in and at too high a price (7-10p) but I'm still confident that I'll exit with a respectable profit...

[temmujin] 02/10/2017 15:18

pugugly has form i believe...hangs around multibaggers just before they multibag

[kirk 6] 02/10/2017 15:02

PUG so why spend your time actively hanging around piles of POo! You mug.

[pugugly] 02/10/2017 14:18

kirk 6 Still reposting that load of poo - Man is just (imo) a blantent ramper - A bit like you on that other load of rubbish you have been trying to talk up Pun UPGS unlikely to hit your £1.00 this afternoon -

[kirk 6] 02/10/2017 13:51

SO LETS LOok at the fundamentals:Every now and then I come across a share that I was not expecting to find and that I've never heard anything about before, this is a classic example of one of those shares.Yesterday Zanaga Iron Ore Company popped up on my radar due to a very strange action in the share price and some very large trades moving through a stock that typically sees very few trades per day.This much un-loved stock may actually prove to be one of AIMs biggest movers this year!Let's start with the fundementalsShares in issue: 279mFree Float: Approx: 75m (27%)Current MCap: £17m52 Week High: 212p52 Week Low: 4.6pAll-time High: 212p (No dilution since this high!)All-time Low: 1.35pCash in Bank: Approx $4.5mZanaga Project DetailsThe bare fact is that the company sits with a mineral resource situated in the Republic of Congo that is one of the world's largest with up to 6.9bn tonnes and of which 2.1bn is iron ore at a 66% fe. These figures have been produced in compliance with the key JORC code and the iron ore NPV (after financing and net of production and transportation) has been valued at anywhere up to $966m net to ZIOC based upon the current iron price of approx $55/tonne. (If the price of Iron Ore moves back closer to the $80 range then this puts the value up to $1.4bn!!)The project is a 50/50 collaboration with Glencore ($40bn Mcap), with Glencore hold 1 share more than Zanaga to give them control of the project.Zanaga management have been playing the long game this last two years, steadily progressing the project through, in the most important instance, the ratification of its Mining Convention and the lodging of the Environmental Permit that is now VERY OVERDUE and that will be another potential major milestone in the progress towards exploitation of this world class ore resource.Next CatalystThis project is waiting on the Environmental Permit to be obtained, this was expected at the end of the 2016 fiscal year which means it is now several months overdue and can land any day now!Once the permit has been agreed this could spark a chain of events that will send this share price on a crazy journey.With the permit in place I would expect ZIOC to look at selling their stake in the project and due to Glencore's huge success over the past couple of years they are now in a cash rich position and according to their chairman they are looking to buy out projects that they already have a stake in."We are looking for opportunities around," he said, adding Glencore was particularly interested in assets where it already had stakes or partnerships.This would put ZIOC firmly on their radar, the only outstanding issue being the Environmental Permit which should land very soon.My View: What happens nextBased on my research I strongly believe that once the Environmental Permit has been obtained ZIOC will look to sell their half of the project, either to their partner Glencore or to another party, potentially a Chinese interest as there have been rumours of interest from China in the past.This is backed up by the share transfer announced on the 3rd April 2017, which I believe was to get everything ready for the sale of the asset.I also see the directors holding a huge percentage of the shares in issue here which is a sign of confidence in my mind that they know what is coming.It would not surprise me if the deal is already in place and the permit being obtained is the catalyst to finalise it.In regards to the price for the sale of the asset, based on it being one of the world's leading iron ore assets I would be surprised if it were to sell for less than $100m (fire sale price), with my estimate being somewhere between $200m-$300m.When you compare this to the current Mcap of £17m you can see the huge value here!The Mcap appears to only be this low as it is so far off people's radars at the moment and the overdue nature of the Environmental Permit.Downsides?Are there any risks here? Of course, as with all shares there is a potential risk here that there will be further delay in the Environmental Permit, or that it might not be granted. However, given that all other permits and licenses have been obtained I see this as extremely unlikely.The risk to reward here is huge in my mind. Very low risk, massive reward.TargetsThe movement in the share price here is going to be driven by the Environmental Permit being obtained... On that news I would expect the share price to move to around 50p per share (600%+ Rise)I would then expect the share price to continue to rise up to the point of the asset sale, which would likely be over £1 per share (1300%+ Rise)Due to the Very Low free float in this share it moves incredibly quickly which will make it very difficult to by once the RNS lands so this is one you want to be in before the news lands.If you wish to check the figures here in this post then I suggest you take a look at the most recent investor presentation here to get an understanding of the size of this asset:http://www.zanagairon.com/pdfs/ZIOC-Investor-Presentation_21-Sept-2016.pdfThe share price at the time of writing this post was 6.125pNote: I have emailed the company to obtain answers to a couple of outstanding questions. I will update this post once I get a reply.

[kirk 6] 02/10/2017 13:50

LOL PUG! So your still wasting your time here? Why it take your own advice and move on

[pugugly] 02/10/2017 12:55

Agreed _ Look at fundamentals - Market massively over supplied by cheaper IO CIF China from mines already operating compared to this pile of rocks in the middle of a jungle with minimal current infrastructure and massive capital investment plus time required - A no brainer - Get out while you still can or become a Chinese takeaway for zilch.

[kirk 6] 02/10/2017 12:19

Literally obvious mate. This share is so far undervalued and now massively oversold. Look at the RSI, look at the fundamentals? Permit due before Christmas will mean a minimum of a 200% rise from this bombed out level

[luckyvince] 02/10/2017 10:19

Why a good week this week Kirk? I would love to see a good week,but why this week?

[kirk 6] 01/10/2017 16:51

Should see a good week this week

[temmujin] 29/9/2017 13:40

casper...rkbeekeeper denies he wrote the article...do you believe him?

[seagreen] 29/9/2017 13:31

doing the opposite of what Katy says is a\lways a winner too...x

[abeygale] 29/9/2017 12:57

ZIOC and Stella Diamonds is the path to riches.

[dave4545] 29/9/2017 12:35

Be careful trusting certain articles from certain accounts. Same person behind multiple false stories with CHAL

[kirk 6] 29/9/2017 11:52

This will fly shortly just a waiting game

[temmujin] 29/9/2017 08:00

not really...china ditching their poor quality ore and buying higher quality abroad

[pugugly] 29/9/2017 07:57

Pump and Dumpers back again - Roll on 3p. World is over supplied with IO.

[kirk 6] 29/9/2017 07:48

Roll on 50p today

[tadtech] 29/9/2017 07:40

SP Angel are fairly supportive here also.....

Conclusion: Zanaga offers leveraged investment potential to future iron ore pellet prices. We look forward to further news on progress towards the construction of the potential early stage pellet opportunity. We see this as offering a potentially good route to de-risking the project for future larger scale expansion