Yu Share Discussion Threads

[daveboy19] 14/1/2022 14:28

I will never understand some people. Why would you sell now just when mm's were coming under pressure.

[sparky333] 14/1/2022 12:53

https://kalkinemedia.com/uk/stocks/industrial/centrica-cna-yu-group-yu-2-gas-utility-stocks-to-buy

[sparky333] 14/1/2022 12:52

More than likely end of the month but you just never know as a max 9 trading days away

[sparky333] 14/1/2022 12:51

A few people played right into MMs hands today. Oh well let's hope they miss out an TU next week

[sparky333] 14/1/2022 11:28

Spoke to soon

[sparky333] 14/1/2022 11:25

MMs just not getting the sells bid ticking up each time on the small sells.Chaos would quick happen if the herd arrived would be so funny to watch

[sparky333] 13/1/2022 21:07

Good find Bump3r. Interesting day tomorrow , do we push on to £3 or a pull back as getting closer each day to TU, big gamble if bailing out. MMs under pressure no doubt about it the sell price goto higher and higher the last sell of 260ish shares sold for 275p Crazy to sell now IMHO but each to their own

[bump3r] 13/1/2022 20:30

Long term Incentive plan too for senior managementUnder the terms of the LTIP, awards are subject to strict vesting criteria. These are linked to the Participants', the Company's, and the share prices' performances over pre-established dates. The LTIP has in-built safeguards against temporarily aberrant share-price behaviour.The potential level of vesting of tranche 1 will be determined by the average share price over the 20 consecutive trading days following the announcement of the 2022 Group results in or around March 2023. During this period the average share price must be equal to, or exceed, 200p to achieve a 50% vesting. A share price below 200p will result in no options being vested. If the average share price is at, or above, 500p then 100% of the tranche 1 options will vest.The potential level of vesting of tranche 2 will be determined by the average share price over the 20 consecutive trading days following the announcement of the 2023 Group results in or around March 2024. During this period the average share price must be equal to, or exceed, 250p to achieve a 50% vesting. A share price below 250p will result in no options being vested. If the average share price is at, or above, 625p then 100% of the tranche 2 options will vest.Under the terms of the LTIP, the total equity pool under option in a cumulative ten-year period (including shares already issued in relation to previous option exercises), shall not exceed 20%. Following implementation of the LTIP, 8.02% of the Company's total issued share capital will be held under option.

[sparky333] 13/1/2022 16:28

The potential level of vesting of this award will be determined by the average share price over the 20 consecutive trading days following the announcement of the 2023 Group results in or around March 2024. During this period the average share price must be equal to, or exceed, 250p to achieve a 50% vesting. A share price below 250p will result in no options being vested. If the average share price is at, or above, 625p then 100% of the options will vest.

[bump3r] 13/1/2022 16:25

Was the option if we hit 625p for 2023 Sparky?Maybe we are 1 yr ahead of plan.

[sparky333] 13/1/2022 15:45

One thing I would add is and is really important Debt free and do not give away shares like confetti to BOD.They have to be earned and good KPIs in place.625p share price for 100%

[sparky333] 13/1/2022 14:02

Beautiful summary Paddy.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:48

16/begin to truly deliver the sort of disruptive influence that the company has talked about these last few years but only just really started to deliver in 2021.On that basis, YU is a lending bigAIM performer in 2022.Enough said until that update drops.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:48

15/A trading update is expected in late January. There we will know exactly what YU has achieved.If the above plays out then an expected current EV of c. £33m for a debt-free and profitable YU simply doesn't fit.Because at that point YU's new stronger cash flows...

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:47

14/to counter the Ofgem costs of the lost suppliers. However, YU is and can grow at such a substantial rate that it really has limited bearing on the bigger picture.One that says fewer suppliers for the same amount of customers means opportunity and not added risk.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:47

13/Plus, if YU had acquired this book from Ampower then we would be talking several million pounds in upfront payments anyway. So the domestic link is a non-starter for YU. This is all about the business books.I do expect some additional costs as industry levies are upped...

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:47

12/Those few domestic customers (who YU took on from Ampower in order to get access to their big business customer book) included in the total 2,600 customer book are likely mainly covered by the £142k in payments received from Ofgem for their service on Ampower.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:46

10/A repeat of this would take FY 2022 revenues to c. £224m.Some allowance has to be made for customer contracts ending and not renewed.Still, we are talking c. £224m vs £188m and no allowance for higher-priced contract renewals.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:46

9/If YU then delivers c. £45m in new work from converted Ampower customers then they would already be at +£160m before the year has even started.At £130m in FY 2021 revenues (prior to Ampower) YU demonstrated an ability to add c. 40% of organic growth during 2021.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:45

8/My belief is that YU will easily beat that in 2022.Contracted revenues as of 31st Aug 2021 were already £90.5m. In 2020 YU achieved a 30% increase on their August position be YE. The same in 2021 would mean YE forward contracted revenues of c. £117m + Ampower.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:45

7/Meaning those customer accounts that come on board can be enhanced through further cross-product sales.That aside what does this all mean for that share price Angel forecast?Right now they have 2023 (not this year) coming in at c. £188m in revenues for an EPS of c. 16.8p a share.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:45

6/customer books they really want from Ampower.Right now my estimate is around 50% or £45m at the old prices when they came on board. Since then prices have risen again so this may be too low.Furthermore, YU is the only supplier able to offer multi-utility bundles.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:44

5/Especially when their new supplier YU has just been given the Ofgem seal of approval in terms of a secure and trustworthy supplier who will still be in business once these high prices are behind us all.Such factors have me trusting that YU will win the creditworthy...

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:44

4But back to Ampower we are talking a crack at up to £90m of new work which currently sits on a super high variable tariff rate (and so will be keen to strike a new deal) and that share price Angel states are less likely to want to move again.

[paddygangster] 13/1/2022 13:44

3leading to a substantial increase in forward contracted revenue."Furthermore, YU is clear that its hedging strategy with Smartestenergy enables both organic and further inorganic growth. Meaning this doesn't stop with Ampower.