Yougov Share Discussion Threads

[little minx] 10/10/2023 09:26

I did wonder what all the large buys were. Could it possibly be a takeover target?

[jdh1602] 10/10/2023 09:23

It's probably fair value around 800 where the support is, given the entirely new IR regime we are living in. And that's only because of the quality of the results. Forget the 2021 price, that was a fantasy in the past.

[little minx] 10/10/2023 08:59

Thank you. Yes markets are dreadful.

[babbler] 10/10/2023 08:57

Results were expected to be terrible but they did very wellPlacing was at over 9 quid recentlySome big buys today.Should recover to over 8 at least. Imo. Bit tough market overall.

[little minx] 10/10/2023 08:46

Is this undervalued. Been on my watch list for ages and not too sure whether to invest.

[1c3479z] 06/10/2023 20:07

understand the gfk vendor was forced to sell so You was able to drive a hard bargain that was the story at the time, will find out more on Tuesday to confirm or refute although may be too soon?

[maddox] 06/10/2023 17:23

Hi Tom,

All there is -

RNS 6 July 2023



'In the year to 31 December 2022, the Consumer Panel Business generated revenues of €134 million and adjusted profit before tax of €24 million and as of 31 March 2023 had gross assets of €53 million*7.'

'*7 Financial information is based on unaudited financial information provided in relation to the Consumer Panel Business which has been assessed by and on behalf of YouGov.'

[tomtrudgian] 06/10/2023 11:46

Hi 74tom. I am sorry to be a bore, but am wholly unable to find the RNS which gave details of the GfK se 2022 financials.

I wonder if you could kindly say when it was issued and what the title was?

[maddox] 04/10/2023 15:47

OK, looks like we're all in the same boat here. So, to get the ball rolling.

Strategic analysis is my angle - accounts provide the historic fundamentals but we're taking a punt on the firm succeeding in the future.

My understanding FWIW is that consumer market research falls into two basic types – one-off research studies that might be specifically designed to elucidate a topic and long-term surveys that monitor trends, market shares, etc. The first type is more closely aligned with general market activity whereas clients tend to subscribe longer-term to the trend research: Might be used for annual budgeting for advertising spend etc. So, revenue generated from the later will tend to be more resilient in a down-turn.

YOU have pioneered the recruitment of consumer survey panels using internet/mobile so is very nicely differentially positioned and primarily in the more higher-quality revenue sector. They've been growing strongly, and their strategic goal is to complete an international roll-out of panels. This would allow them to provide FMCG clients with a complete and coherent picture - to again differentiate themselves against competitors.

Strategically: The GfK acquisition thus accelerates along this (geographic expansion) pathway, will allow them to bring more work in-house, and takes out a competitor.

Financially: With GfK they should increase their revenue by 50% and for a reasonable price (as compared to YOU) and thus should be value enhancing. GfK is 2.3x rev v. YOU 3.23x and p/e c. 16 v. YOU 26.

So, IMHO it looks like a sensible deal.

BTW – putting this out there to be shot at – so please feel free.

[tomtrudgian] 04/10/2023 12:30

I have just logged on again, namesake Tom, as I wanted to apologise to you for my rather abrupt post. Only to find I was not only rude but completely missed the GfK financials as well, and I am so very sorry. I spent some time analysing the quite remarkable YouGov figures instead. Unforgivable.

I had a bit of spare cash and thought I was being clever in spotting an oversold share. In a business I knew nothing about too! Very silly.

The purchase does seem expensive and shareholders do not know the debt cost either.

Tom Trudgian

[74tom] 04/10/2023 11:07

Will reply fully later on, however it appears that @Tomt may have missed the disclosure of the GfK consumer unit's 2022 financials in the RNS that accompanied the placing?

"In the year to 31 December 2022, the Consumer Panel Business generated revenues of €134 million and adjusted profit before tax of €24 million and as of 31 March 2023 had gross assets of €53 million7."

[maddox] 04/10/2023 09:47

Great to have you two astute analysts on this thread (as well as on LIT thread ofc) .

YOU is a new candidate for me so still developing my view. One of my preferred investment strategies is to buy quality firms when they are out of favour or hit a problem. So, this fall in the share price makes the potential opportunity here more attractive.

So, would very much appreciate your current views on YOU?

Regards Maddox

[tomtrudgian] 04/10/2023 09:27

Thanks Maddox, your post has crossed with mine. I emailed YouGov for the figures too, also with no reply, and stupidly bought 6800 on Monday, which is a lot for my pocket. Feeling very annoyed with myself.

[tomtrudgian] 04/10/2023 09:17

I am the new boy here, and know nothing about marketing survey companies. However you seem to be confusing an euro acquisition with sterling cash, omitting the placing proceeds, and comparing pre tax debt interest with post tax earnings.

In any event I have not seen the 2022 GfK se tax computations, but the figures given (Pretax €24m and post tax earnings £15m, or did you mean €15m?) are not credible. If true they must be due to exceptional factors in that year.
Tom Trudgian

[maddox] 04/10/2023 09:02

Hi Tomt,

Yes I was trying to get the GfK Unit accounts but without success. I also emailed YOU for the analyst presentation on the acquisition - several times without success.

>> 74tom, and as you say we don't know the interest rate that they are paying on this debt facility.

Transparency isn't YOU's strong suit.

[74tom] 03/10/2023 10:16

Why did Yougov decide to vandalise a clean balance sheet at a time of record interest rates? I can only think it was to ward off a PE bid.

They had £104m cash as of mid August, the cost of their acquisition is €315m, so gross debt is likely to be >£200m, as I can't see them using all of their cash. There is next to no chance of the interest rate on their new debt being less than 7% IMO, although somehow they are allowed to avoid disclosing this at present, so cost of debt likely to be >£15m PA. The acquired GfK unit made a €24m pre tax profit for FY22, so post tax earnings will likely be ~£15m, which will be completely wiped out by the debt interest. Not hard to see why the market hates the deal.

[tomtrudgian] 01/10/2023 10:41

Just noticed YouGov. Accounts look very good. Is the price for GfK se @ 315 euros too high? A bridge too far perhaps?

Does anyone know how I can access the financial results for this part of GfK?
Can you help Maddox? You are always reliable.
Tom

[wad collector] 17/8/2023 23:06

Is it not just the generalised AIM pessimism atm ? Almost all of my AIM holdings are doing miserably atm.

[maddox] 14/8/2023 08:59

Hi Guys,

Just built a stake here in view of price on offer. Just spotted this...

YouGov considers US listing as business expands
...YouGov, the UK-listed pollster and data analytics firm, is weighing up a US listing in what would be the latest blow to the London Stock Exchange....

FT AUGUST 14, 2023

[wad collector] 28/7/2023 08:17

Just when it seemed the share price was recovering, the TU has knocked away recent gains. Profit in line but revenue down, and a stir up of the BOD.

[henchard] 06/7/2023 16:00

Today: 1.43pm:

"Statement regarding media speculation
YouGov, the international research and data analytics group, notes the recent press speculation regarding a potential acquisition of GfK SE's European consumer panel business and confirms that it is in advanced stages of discussions and is considering an equity issue1 to partly fund the acquisition.

Initial market reaction not good!

[wad collector] 05/6/2023 22:52

Moved back to a 9 month high .