Yougov Share Discussion Threads

[wad collector] 24/3/2023 14:50

Positive article in IC , highlighting the strong demand for it's products being more resilient than expected . Sticks with its Buy recommendation , which was last at 805p in October, so right call on that one.

[wad collector] 22/3/2023 23:01

Look pretty strong numbers and outlook. Knocking on the £10 door again.

[wad collector] 19/3/2023 10:25

Interims Tuesday.

[wad collector] 30/1/2023 22:00

Not surprisingly there was not mention in the TU of Z ; which were in line.
I wonder if YouGov is slightly tainted by the Z connection, though it was a long time ago and I wonder if he still has holdings that are invisible in another trust.

[sallad3] 24/1/2023 15:48

bit like he seems to have done with the disclosure of this multi-million pound collapse in the original listing circular (page 49 para 5.4.2)

[wad collector] 22/1/2023 21:16

Zahawi has probably been careless and forgotten...

[growthpotential] 21/1/2023 20:05

How many shares has he got?

[wad collector] 20/1/2023 22:31

TU on Friday ; wake up everbody!

[yf23_1] 25/10/2022 16:12

Just got round to reading the IC results section. Last sentence fwd P/E of 22.
Eh? This is what annoys me about IC, eps of 9, 11 , 15.7 (with P/E of 51) and yet no explanation of how they suddenly get EPS of circa 36p for next year.
Worthless.

[growthpotential] 18/10/2022 15:36

Nice rally today

[disc0dave45] 16/10/2022 11:08

Good luck if you decide to get in here. It's a quality business, just not for me at the moment.Thanks as well for your help.

[henchard] 15/10/2022 22:58

disc0dave45 - No, I'm not a holder. Have looked at YouGov from time to time over the years, and the fall in the share price prompted me to revisit it. I've still got things to look at and weigh up.

[disc0dave45] 15/10/2022 22:36

Henchard
Got it!, think you’ve cracked it.
Just don’t see them achieving their 30% forecast eps of 42.6p, or even the consensus of 33p-34p (which I think could be normalised eps not adjusted).
Their adjusted eps CAGR since 2017 is 14%, hence IMO if they achieve +15% eps growth that would be a high’ish forecast given the last 12 months growth (+9%) and the current macro environment. that would give FY23 of 27.2p, putting them on a meaty foreword PE of 33x.
Crux for me is I can’t value the business based on confusing and somewhat contradictory info from the BOD, and IMO they won’t achieve their primary earnings target (adjusted eps), plus it’s fairly pricey now, so will pass on this one.
If you are a holder then all the best.

[wad collector] 15/10/2022 22:17

Tipped in IC this week @ 805P , doesn't think the CEO stepping down will affect the direction of travel and strong sales will continue especially stateside.
Mind you they also said BUY in March @ 1180P , so perhaps they are just guessing like the rest of us....

[henchard] 15/10/2022 21:41

I think we're getting there on fathoming it!

But I think the 14.9p 2019 eps to a required 42.6p in 2023 is a 4-year CAGR not a 5-year:

2019: 14.9p...baseline Year 0
2020: 18.1p...1-year CAGR 21.5%
2021: 20.8p...2-year CAGR 18.1%
2022: 23.7p...3-year CAGR 16.7%
2023: 42.6p...4-year CAGR 30.0%

You're right though that a year-on-year FY22/23 eps increase of 80% to pull the FYP2 CAGR up to 30% looks nigh on impossible.

I guess the 50% or so fall in the share price since the start of the year speaks to market expectations of lower eps growth than previously anticipated.

I see Edison (company paid-for research) has pitched FY23 eps at 33p.

[disc0dave45] 15/10/2022 21:09

Wouldn't disagree with the maths.....but that's 5 years (when they've said FYP2 is 4 years), and doesn't match how consensus has been calculated and it's a 80% increase in eps compared to FY22.

[henchard] 15/10/2022 20:52

I've had another look based on company's statement that: "The financial results for the year to 31 July 2019 set the base line for the Board approved targets for the FYP2 period."

I make it that from a 2019 baseline eps of 14.9p it would require eps of 42.6p+ in 2023 to hit the 30% CAGR target.

[henchard] 15/10/2022 19:44

disc0dave45

YouGov seems to have made different statements in different places, re FYP2, that don't appear entirely consistent with each other to me. I don't know why they (and other companies) can't just say: X£ and Yp are the revenue and eps numbers we're starting from, and X£ and Yp are the minimum revenue and eps numbers we need to hit in order to achieve our targets.

[disc0dave45] 15/10/2022 19:11

To confirm, FYP2 is FY20 to FY23 (4 financial years), that's my understanding. FYP1 was for 5 years, FYP2 4 years and FYP3 will cover 3 years.They stated in the finals issued Oct 2020:"The financial year to 31 July 2020 was the first full year of our current long-term strategic growth plan ("FYP2"). The financial results for the year to 31 July 2019 set the base line for the Board approved targets for the FYP2 period (which runs from 1 August 2019 to 31 July 2023) to double Group revenue, double adjusted operating profit margin(2) , and achieve compound annual adjusted earnings per share(2) ("EPS") growth in excess of 30%."

[disc0dave45] 15/10/2022 18:49

Ps put simply the consensus forecasts in terms of FY23 eps is more than double (+126% growth) their FY22 earnings - that's what drew my attention in the first place but then realised it's a forecast based purely on them hitting the 30% CAGR target (from and including FY20), thus the consensus share price target can't be correct as IMO they will be doing well to achieve circa 11% CAGR for their FYP2 period. That's +15% eps growth FY23 v FY22 (they only managed +9% for FY22 v FY21).

[disc0dave45] 15/10/2022 18:38

Hi HenchardI just went on the fact they stated that next year was the final year of their 4 year FYP2, thus FY20 (adj eps of 18.1p was the start year). I did the same calcs for the prior year to (I.e. FY 2019 adj eps of 14.9p as reported in their finals) and it means FY23 eps would then have to be even higher than 51.6p (from memory circa 55p), plus it didn't tally with them stating it was a 4 year target. Either way I'm totally at a loss as to what their forecast eps for FY23 will be, particularly as the consensus published forecasts I've seen are simply assuming they achieve the 30% CAGR from 2020. Which I'm concluding that there's no chance of that unless I've completely misunderstood and miscalculated their data and FYP2.

[henchard] 15/10/2022 17:44

disc0dave45

Interesting questions!

YouGov set out its 5-year targets in H1 results issued on 2 April 2019.

It said "This financial year [i.e. year to 31 July 2019] is an 'overlap' year, designed to avoid a cliff-edge of motivation and investment, and the plan reaches completion in 2023."

Therefore, the target adjusted eps growth starts from the base level of FY 2018 eps I'd have thought.

The aforementioned H1 results setting out the targets also said "In future we intend to amend our definition of adjusted operating profit to include amortisation of intangible assets charged to operating expenses."

Adjusted eps in the FY 2019 results was duly presented on the amended basis and the FY 2018 numbers were restated on the same basis.

I don't know if the targets to FY 2023 are from the original FY 2018 adjusted eps of 16.6p or the restated 11.5p.

I would suspect the latter, and of course that would make quite a difference to what eps is needed in FY 2023 to meet the 5-year CAGR target.

[disc0dave45] 15/10/2022 13:39

Any views on how they are going to hit their FYP2 adjusted eps CAGR target? - not going to IMO due to covid etc, but they seem not to be too open about the challenges they face in achieving their FYP2 stated targets. For instance they need to more than double eps to circa 51.6p to achieve 30% CAGR. No wonder they skirted around that specific element and the comments overall were very confusing IMO. On eps target they down played it (more modest growth of +9%) and blamed fx costs (£3.7m), but this would only represent about 3p eps, so excluding that impact they would still need FY23 adjusted eps of circa 48p (+105% growth on FY22).They also say doubling their Rev over the period will be challenging but achievable (but consensus forecasts of £259m come in under the required target of £304m). Yet they said in relation to their FYP2 targets "we continue to execute in line with our expectations".From looking at a few websites the consensus targets have been derived based on achieving 30% CAGR for adjusted eps, which IMO they have no chance of hitting, but does anybody have any more realistic forecasts they could post up (sorry if already posted, haven't scanned the thread).Thanks

[growthpotential] 09/9/2022 19:58

This rocket gotta get a move on