SP a bit perky this morning. What's the discount to NAV here? |
 Weekly Reports | Mar 19 2024
The spot uranium price fell sharply last week as sellers became more agitated.
-Uranium spot price falls -US$7/lb
-Kazatomprom warns of lack of inventory
-Still no news on Russian uranium sanctions
The recent price fall is attributed to two main factors, TradeTech notes, and they are both related to the psychological impact of triple digits.
When the spot price crossed the US$100/lb mark, utilities, who are not major spot market participants at the best of times, declined to buy at such prices. Speculative entities, now holding vast amounts of physical material, saw triple digits as a good place to take profits, having spent years amassing their inventories.
But even as prices fell back into the nineties, and speculative volumes were cleared, utilities showed little interest, and sellers, mostly intermediaries, became frustrated and started lowering prices. Five transactions were reported last week at prices between US$90 and US$84/lb.
and...
Term Markets
Utilities may be unwilling to pay triple-digit prices in the spot market but when it comes to securing medium term supply, from sources other than Russia, they are indeed willing.
Ongoing uncertainty over Russian imports only steels their resolve.
TradeTech’s term price indicators remain at US$100/lb (mid-term) and US$75/lb (long). |
Major shareholders:
(scroll down) |
Mmcap International Inc. SPC is based out of Grand Cayman. Their last reported 13F filing for Q4 2023 included $546,106,922 in managed 13F securities and a top 10 holdings concentration of 82.17%. Mmcap International Inc. SPC's largest holding is Uranium Energy Corp with shares held of 25,304,663. |
MMCAP International Inc. SPC have increased their holding to over 10% from 9%. |
This interview with Justin Huhn is helpful. |
Mjn,
Of course there's SPUT whose material is staying put. Zuri-invest is probably small.
I have seen/heard interviews where it is thought about 20 hedge funds have their own physical uranium accounts. It is also rumoured that some have been taking profits. Moreover, there's a drip feed of material coming from traders with small balance sheets who have offtake agreements with producers who have to sell to maintain cashflow.
Even if the hedge funds have say 20m lbs, which is another YCA, even that won't cover even this year's structural deficit, let alone next year.
Apparently, volume in the spot market is also low.
Do, I think this is a correction in a secular bull market and not the top.
I think KAP announce their full 23 financial results on Friday, when we shall see their year end inventory and their capex plans for this year which might offer some insight into what they might produce in 2025. |
According to 7kiwi's sheet, at $91.25 the NAV per share is 724.3p, so the discount is 16.1%. |
Does anyone else think the fall in YCA looks overdone? Spot U308 prices still above $92 |
This may be a silly question, but do we know how many other entities may be hoarding uranium for investment purposes? If any one decides to sell part or all of their stock back into the market, this could have a deleterious effect on the price. We've been seeing a scenario similar to this in the PGM market. There was widespread hoarding when Covid hit, and later the war in Ukraine. Destocking has been taking place these past few months and the effect on the PGM basket price has been obvious. Correct me if I'm wrong. |
[Podcast] Convince Me in 15 Minutes... That Uranium is in a Bull Market
Adam Rozencwajg, CFA (Managing Partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg) |
The exit here is when a major consumer simply buys out the whole company for the inventory. Its likely that simple. Don't overthink it. |
What's the exit for shareholders here? Is there a mechanism that will allow management to sell inventory and return capital when they believe the time is right? |
Chunky buy - 107,240 shares at 620.45p, seven minutes after the bell.
uncrossing was 205,331 shares at 620 also |
Useful insight from Quakes as highlighted by a user on another board
While a February #Uranium 'month-end smash'💥€296; pulled Spot #U3O8 down🪂 TradeTech reports that 6.5M lbs were traded in February🛒 at a weighted average of $97.10/lb⬆5039; which was +$8.40 higher than the 6.8M lbs traded in January at an average of $88.70/lb.Trend is Up! |
After a very volatile February for uranium spot prices, triggered by the price rise to over US$100/lb, the month ended with further easing from that mark. Industry consultant TradeTech’s weekly price indicator fell -US$1.50 to US$93.50/lb.
That’s down from US$100.50/lb at end-January, but the indicator is nevertheless up 87% year on year and 55% above the 2023 average price.
TradeTech notes much of the selling has come from financial entities, that first kicked off the uranium rally a few years ago, trimming positions and booking what would be considerable profits at prices over US$100/lb. |
Breaking News!💥Ԃ40; US Enriched #Uranium #Nuclear Fuel Makers Get $2.7 Billion Boost in Funding Bill Unveiled Today💰Ԃ20;⚛️⛏️㇌2;🇸 part of a broader Biden admin plan to buy Uranium direct from US producers🛒 as Senate may join the house in passing legislation to bar imports from Russia.🇷7482;🚢⛔;️🇺🇸 Congress seeks to pass the underlying funding bill this week to prevent a partial government shutdown.🧑‍⚖️🤠🐂 |
topslicing |
Thanks I thought so. I know this is a pure uranium play but wanted to better understand what drives the uranium spot price as I know the supply shortage is the main one. However was trying to understand why the spot price has fallen back recently |
Totally irrelevant. Sp moves according to the market price of U308. |
Do you think there is any seasonality to the share price Ie is there less demand during spring summer or as is that irrelevant? |
Interesting point in the DavidTurver substack -
I had some concern that a shortage of refining capacity might limit the short term demand for Uranium, but he points out =
"Conversely, if the enrichers are short on capacity, they can run the centrifuges for less time and produce the output with a higher tails assay. This requires more input material, so the enricher will be short of UF6 and have to purchase extra material in the market to produce the same output of enriched uranium product. This might be termed secondary demand. So, when enrichment capacity is tight, this leads to extra demand for UF6 that then translates to extra demand for U3O8, or yellowcake." |
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
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