SPUT picked up another 100k lbs yesterday |
Great. I hold GLO..although commentary suggests it may not be impacted.. |
Apparently, Niger reviewing existing and future mining licences. Looks like more delays to the supply response to the looming deficit. |
Spot has ticked back a bit to $104/lb mid-price. |
Operating update is a good read. |
Rimau,
I don't think there's a raise imminent. First there's $33m on the balance sheet. Second, raising now would be dilutive to existing shareholders and all prior raisings have been neutral or slightly accretive. They won't raise at such a discount, imv.
Nimbo,
At current Numerco mid-price of $106/lb and share price of 712p, I make the discount 15.8%. It's big, but nowhere near 20%.
I would think a buyback is much more likely than a raise. But I suspect they will wait to see how the market reacts to the upcoming statements from KAP and CCO before deciding whether to do a buyback or not.
If YCA does get to NAV and thinks about raising, I wonder if KAP has the material to honour the $100m option? I suppose what works in KAP's favour is that $100m now buys less than 1m lbs, whereas not too long ago it would have bought 2m lbs or more. |
There is always a raise coming I guess. Don’t see why it’ll be at this much of a discount though… |
Any chance that maybe there is a raise coming? Approx £12m cash on the balance sheet i guess. Need to fund the 2024 option at some point. Although Kiwi will have a much better informed view than me. |
20 percent discount to nav?! |
Kiwi . Thanks for your explanation . For what it’s worth , I agree . It wasn’t long ago that civil unrest in Niger caused a jump in the rise of the price of U308 and yet I believe that Niger is a far smaller producer than Kazakhstan ( thus supporting your point that the loss of Kazakhstan would actually benefit the price of Yellow Cske , as the loss of our company’s source would be more than outweighed by the shortage of U308 in the West ) . The internet reminds us that it was only just over two years ago ( January 2022 , only a few weeks before Russia then attacked Ukraine ) that Russian troops entered Kazakhstan in order to prop up the government , illustrating just how close the regime in Almaty is to Moscow . |
MrN.
Kazatomprom is already under significant influence from Russia and China.
According to this press report, China has contracts for 60% of Kaz production and Russia 26%, leaving just 14% for the west. Iirc, even Cameco did a deal to sell some of its share of Inkai production to China.
The option with KAP was and is valuable, but even if the option is somehow terminated early, I don't really see how that negatively impacts YCA's share price. It would underline the scarcity of western material and push up the per pound price, pushing up YCA's NAV per share. It's NAV per share matters far more than total NAV of the company.
As I said before, my own view is that at some point YCA will be taken out by a consortium of producers and/or utilities. There's a 30-50m lb p.a. structural deficit in the market for the next few years. YCA's 21m lbs will help mitigate the deficit in one of those years. It would have to at least be at NAV though for shareholders to approve such a deal. |
It's a thread. As it says it is |
I did a bit of research on KAP's sulphuric acid consumption. Looks like the amount of H2SO4 required per tonne of U3O8 produced is going up quite dramatically. |
 Here is the short Berenberg article.
(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg raised their target price on uranium group Yellow Cake from 744.0p to 883.0p on Thursday following a fireside chat with chief executive Andre Liebenberg and Dustin Garrow, managing principal at Nuclear Fuel Associates and chief commercial officer of 308 Services.
Berenberg said it came away from the chat with the view that the uranium's price rally can be sustained, with tight supply, plus existing supply disruptions, as well as delays to new projects, thin spot markets and a positive demand outlook from both growing utility demand and small modular reactors, plus the ongoing headwind of falling coverage ratios, particularly for US utilities, all pointing to prices being well underpinned with scope for further disruptions to push the price of uranium higher.
The German bank, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock, also noted that underpinning this and providing more upside risk for prices, scope remains for the US government to ban imports of Russian uranium, providing a further dislocation of trade flows and impacting supply of uranium into the US, creating an energy security risk.
"We think that uranium prices are likely to remain elevated and think that there is scope for further price appreciation due to the tight markets and ongoing supply risk. We lift our price to $102.50/lb for 2024 and remain of the view that prices can spike even further from current levels," said Berenberg. "This lifts our Yellow Cake price target to 883.0p per share. Yellow Cake is trading at a 14% discount to pro-forma net asset value and we see a clear trade here for investors to generate alpha through the NAV discount arbitrage."
Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com |
Finally! The charts now reflect $100
Congrats to holders here. It’s taken patience but now we just need to sit and watch it play out |
Berenberg raises Yellow Cake price target to 883 (744) pence - 'buy' |
that does sound a major issue kiwi - if confirmed! |
numerco moved 104/108 |
Kiwi - Kazakhstan is one of the top 10 largest producers of sulfuric acid with 4.58M metric tons produced in 2022. And $KAP cannot secure any?.
Kazakhstan best friends China are the worlds largest producer at 85 million metric tons per annum,& accompanied by Russia in fourth place who produce 14.85 million metric tons, so it does seen rather bizarre when Kazatamprom claim that there is supply problems in securing sulfuric acid. Maybe there's some truth in Kuppy's statement. |
Ozzie stocks up strongly at the open. Around 8%-ish. |
This, from Twitter is allegedly from Kuppy's newsletter. Even if it's only partially true, it's potentially explosive. |
Sea,
I reckon the KAP announcement has put people on watch, but many will wait to see what they say in their full year statement, I think in February.
The other one to watch is Cameco. They had production problems last year. It will be interesting to see if they hold their production targets for this year. 22m lbs attributable, iirc.
I suspect they will announce the reopening of Rabbit Lake and/or their US assets.
One thing is for sure, supply is fragile. |
Customisable watchlists with full streaming quotes from leading exchanges, such as LSE, NASDAQ, NYSE, AMEX, Bovespa, BIT and more.
Hot Features
Premium
