Xp Power Share Discussion Threads

[indiestu] 15/10/2024 08:40

This mornings trading update from DSCV was positive stating a stabilisation in order intake and a strong recovery in design wins. The share price has rallied above the 50 day MA accordingly, hopefully it can hold. A little off topic but it bodes well for a recovery in the general electronics sector and XPP in particular.

[indiestu] 10/10/2024 08:31

All good points, you clearly have a knowledge of the field. My angle is that once you have owned an EV it is unlikely you would return to an ICE. 95% of car owners get in their car and go places, wash it on a Sunday and take it to the garage for a service and MOT. They don't think any deeper about the life of the battery, especially true if it's a company car or on finance. Therefore if they can save on the domestic electricity bill and even make money back by charging at work and selling it back to the grid they will. After working in the EV field and driving an EV I have begun to view the tech differently. I charge as I would my mobile phone (when I have time), I don't care about the battery life. As an aside there are many businesses (non dealers) popping up that will repair your EV or replace your battery on an older vehicle at more reasonable prices. Much like your local garage will repair you car using pattern parts for a fraction of the price of a main dealer once it is out of warranty. EV's and older EV's are becoming a part of everyday life, some clever folk will benefit servicing older vehicles at lower prices. AS the technology becomes mainstream the fear of the unknown under the bonnet is diminishing.

[roguetraderuk] 10/10/2024 08:05

for most people once the battery is of no use in their car, thats as far as they will be concerned. also if you are charging and discharging each day, you are quickly going to reach the point where the batteries start dropping off from peak. so i dont think this daily returning to the grid make sense financially. this is one of the reasons resale values are struggling given the sometimes binary outcome when it comes to batteries (even after a lease these cars go somewhere). and there is another issue which relates to chinese vehicles and thats the strength of the overall car guarantee and battery quality. i have used various lithium type batteries for over 20 years and have found the chinese varieties tend to be cheaper but of lower quality, where life cycles have been sometimes no more than 300 times. until they have been around for a few years, we just dont know if they are using a similar approach to ev cars. if their lithium polymer is anything to go by, we could find that life cycles are much lower than expected. dont get me wrong im quite happy to charge my powerbank using my solar panels during the day and then charge my phones and ipad with it at night, but my powerbank only cost 20 odd quid, so if it runs for a year or two then fails theres no problem. i would be more than lightly agitated if that were to happen to my car battery however.

[roguetraderuk] 10/10/2024 07:06

its a marketing ploy. most ev batteries will have max life cycles of 2000-3000 before they material see capacity drop off as well as output reduction. they will also begin to lose charge. given the cost of replacement its just not viable to save a few pence at the cost of battery life.

[alotto] 10/10/2024 06:53

Indiestu very good insight, I never looked at it from this prospective.
Regarding the EV battery usage to buffer the grid, that seems a great idea, but wouldn't an excess use of the battery reduce it's lifespan ?

[indiestu] 10/10/2024 06:37

That's a great question alotto. Over the last few years as an electrical engineer I have experienced the massive technology advances in many sectors that require increasingly vast amounts of electricity to operate. AI, EV's, Crypto mining, desktop CPU's and GPU's, medical, military. In the last year the focus has turned towards power efficiency as a realisation is dawning that there is insufficient electricity to fulfil all these requirements. I feel the price of PSU's will increase as the efficiency improves so the sell won't be the cheapest supplier at book cost but the cheapest supplier over the lifetime of the product. XPP just need to keep competing on quality and lifetime cost. I have a wider vision of the future that electricity will become further commoditised, traded with greater liquidity much like oil and this vision is playing out. You already have the ability to sell back excess power to the grid from your EV and purchase at off peak times. Large scale battery storage is the next step towards fully commoditising electricity. I continue to research and invest in the space but its still immature.

[alotto] 09/10/2024 16:04

Indiestu - do you think any technology changes (e.g., AI) could disrupt ZPP ability to operate as competitively as in the past?
I am asking as I know very little of the industry.

[indiestu] 09/10/2024 15:29

Granted. It's been tough on the electronics industry as organisations have held back on capex. This for me is a play on AI data centres and data centres in general. They all need consistent, smooth and reliable PSU's and any efficiency gains will come straight off their bottom line. these guys are the best in the game.

[alotto] 08/10/2024 07:22

I don't understand the struggle in the electronic industry. It is what it is but XPP seems on the path of recovery.
I hope the dividend will be maintained and covered by earnings.

[valhamos] 08/10/2024 06:50

The situation seems to have stabilised and first signs of recovery in XPP's semicap sector.

[vulgaris] 02/10/2024 16:03

Up almost 10%. What has occasioned this sign of life?

[yasx] 29/8/2024 06:27

It was unreasonable of the Board not to engage the bidder given it is highly unlikely they can improve the underlying business performance to get anywhere near the value of the proposed bid.

[kaffee] 21/8/2024 07:52

Not being particularly good at charting... but is that a Pennant in the last stages of completion ?

[alotto] 08/8/2024 06:20

Maybe the shareholders are aware of the long term potential and saw the offer too low to be worthy considering.

[yasx] 07/8/2024 19:10

What is baffling is why majority shareholders did not persuade the Board to engage with the bidder since the value of the potential offer is likely not to be reached for some considerable time, and may never be reached at all.

[valhamos] 07/8/2024 08:09

The slowdown in semis is well documented. AI is a small part and the exception. Taiwan Semi is doing well because Intel isn't (and to some extent that applies to Samsung). And then there's memory, particularly NAND, which has had massive de-stocking. A recovery in semi takes a while for higher utilisation rates to affect semicap orders but an increase in wafer fab equipment (WFE) is expected next year.

I'm more concerned about the XPP's reported slowdown in other sectors. The comment on healthcare which shrunk by 16% seems at odds with that reported elsewhere e.g. Volex who recently reported 15% growth in medical.

[alotto] 06/8/2024 06:34

Market cap reflects sentiment of future earnings, not past or current.
XPP is suffering a slowdown in all of his core businesses, but I wouldn't say that this is the new norm for xpp. The market may look positively at the actions taken to manage debt, costs and stock.
I'm baffled about the slowdown in semiconductors though. Especially when we are bombarded with news on how well the likes of NVidia and Taiwan Semi are doing.

[terminator101] 06/8/2024 06:26

£300 million mcap yet only £3.2m ebitda fir 6months. Good luck with that valuation.

[mammyoko] 19/6/2024 14:17

Firm again today. Market waking up to the realisation that a share's valuation is based on the anticipated stream of future returns and that that stream is very likely to be higher than current earnings.

Can see this getting back to the 1550 level quite quickly and then heading towards the indicated bid price as soon as restocking starts to occur.

[mammyoko] 18/6/2024 15:55

Held up well today. If they even get close to previous eps levels this is stupidly cheap. 85p forecast for FY5 on a forward pe of 20 would justify 1700 without bid interest in the background. We know that there's a willing buyer at 1950 so can't see this testing the lows again provided trading remains in line with expectations.

Would imagine that they are looking for closer to 2500 so initial bid was too far away to be worth allowing DD access. Even at 1950 not worth allowing DD if 2500 is their minimum expectation.

Once customers start to restock this will start to look as though it was what management descried it as - an opportunistic, low-ball offer from a competitor

[mortal1ty] 18/6/2024 06:47

Not in the next 6 months they won't.