Wt Physica Gold Discussion Threads

[5benny] 22/2/2008 16:44

sorry to but in Arf Dysg, but all etf's can be found here-
hope this helps.

5benny

[arf dysg] 22/2/2008 16:27

spob, you have a list of ETFs in the header relevant to precious metals. May I make a request? It would be very useful to have the EPIC mentioned for each ETF.
Thanks.

[spob] 21/2/2008 17:48

From Times Online

February 21, 2008

Spooked investors rush to the safety of gold

Peter Stiff and Agencies

The price of gold could spike to above $1,000 per ounce after it reached a record high today as investors seek a safe haven from volatile global equity markets.

The price of gold hit a record high of $948.60 as it also emerged that China had now surpassed the US as the second largest consumer of the percious metal behind India.

The stability of the gold market has led to it becoming a refuge from equity markets, with analysts suggesting it could lead to the price per ounce rising further.

Daniel Hynes, a metals strategist at Merrill Lynch, said: "There is a real possibility of a spike above $1,000 an ounce, although I am not convinced at this stage about its longevity above that price."

China's total demand for gold rose 26 per cent to 326.1 tonnes in 2007, primarily driven by the jewellery market which exceeded 300 tonnes for the first since 1997, the World Gold Council and Shanghai Gold Exchange said.

Gold sales in China totalled 363.3 tonnes last year, up 23 per cent, with trading volumes at the Shanghai Gold Exchange growing 46.3 per cent to 1828.13 tonnes.

[spob] 21/2/2008 08:13

Gold Rises to Record as Oil Sparks Demand for Inflation Hedge

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures rose to a record $949.20 an ounce after energy costs jumped to the highest ever, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.

Crude oil rose to a record for a second straight day, reaching $101.32 a barrel and extending the rally in the past year to 73 percent. Gold has touched a record 11 times this year, after jumping 31 percent in 2007 as U.S. inflation accelerated at the fastest pace since 1990.

``A strong close in oil helped drag gold to a record,'' said Tom Hartmann, a commodity broker at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``There's not a lot of people willing to sell the market. The big number on the table here is $1,000.''

Gold futures for April delivery traded at $947.80 at 5:05 p.m. in electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange after reaching the record. During floor trading, the contract closed at $937.80, up $8 from yesterday.

Gold for immediate delivery also climbed to a record $945.60 an ounce.

The precious metal has more than tripled in price during a seven-year rally. Last year's gain was fueled by Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts that helped send the dollar down 9.5 percent against the euro.

A housing slump and mounting subprime-mortgage losses spurred the Fed in September to initiate a series of interest- rate cuts, the first since 2003, to bolster the economy. The federal funds rate is at 3 percent, down from 5.25 percent in mid-September.

`Relatively Low' Rates

Interest-rate futures show a 90 percent chance the Fed will cut the benchmark lending rate to 2.5 percent by March 18, compared with a 68 percent chance a week ago.

Fed officials said ``relatively low'' interest rates may be needed for some time to counteract a slowing U.S. economy, according to minutes of conference calls and a late January meeting that were released today.

Gold last reached a record on Jan. 30 after the Fed slashed rates.

``Central governments are choosing economic activity over sound currency,'' Chip Hanlon, who helps manage $1.4 billion as president of Delta Global Advisors Inc. in Huntington Beach, California, said yesterday in an interview. ``They're not serious about fighting inflation, so gold continues to benefit.''

[spob] 21/2/2008 08:11

Merrill Lynch sees $1,000 gold by 2009

Analysts also forecast silver prices as well

By Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 2/20/2008 9:36:00 AM

Merrill Lynch analysts Michael Jalonen and Jeffrey Schok have increased their gold price forecasts to an annual average of $1,000/troy ounce by 2009, citing stagnant production and robust jewelry demand. They also are predicting increased silver prices. Supporting their view is the fact that these precious metals are selling at a three-week high in Asia as a rise in crude oil and a weakening U.S. dollar boosted the appeal of bullion as a hedge against accelerating consumer prices.

The analysts now expect gold to average $925/oz this year and $1,000/oz in 2009 (up from $750/oz and $800/oz respectively), saying in a Mineweb.com report that "the higher gold prices should be supported by positive supply-demand fundamentals." The analysts expect global mine production to be stable in 2008, "chiefly as a result of lower than anticipated supply from new mines and lower grades at maturing operations," they wrote.

The Merrill Lynch analysts also raised their 2008 silver price forecast from $14/oz to $15.50 since demand will outpace the expected world output increase by as much as 5%. "For 2008, we are forecasting a 5% increase in year-on-year mine output to 675 million ounces as several new mines ramp up (San Cristobal and San Bartolome in Bolivia, Palmerejo, Alamo Dorado, Ocampo and Delores in Mexico), and Manatial Espejo in Argentina," they write. "Looming in the future is the giant Pascua mine in Chile."

[scribbler101] 21/2/2008 01:40

spob - glad we are in agreement.

[abundance99] 10/2/2008 00:22

Platinum going mental! It seems to be a lot more dependent on South Africa with its energy shortages. Seeing the pound drop as has been long suspected has me thinking of throwing a bit more money that way. Oil also starting to interest me. Anything near $80 and I'm in (although with the pound dropping that might not be as good a deal as I could have had earlier in the high $80s).

[leedskier] 07/2/2008 14:33

right on cue, the Fed dropped the price of gold before the NYSE opened.

[leedskier] 01/2/2008 22:02

Gold Sinks to Give Back All of the Week's 2.4% Gains as Fed Vows to Fix Banking Crisis, Dollar Bounces
Gold Prices sank $25 in thirty minutes at the US open on Friday as the Federal Reserve vowed to fix the world's on-going credit crisis with a series of $60 billion cash auctions every fortnight – precisely the sum that analysts at Goldman Sachs earlier warned US banks may lose in 2008 on bad commercial real estate and subprime residential mortgage investments.

After rising to new all-time highs above $936 per ounce, the Gold Market had already begun ticking lower as the opening bell drew near despite news that US employment pay-rolls shed 17,000 jobs in Jan.

Wall Street economists had expected a 55,000 increase.

The Gold Price then lost another 2.1% in the sharpest fall since May 2006 when the US Census Bureau said Construction Spending rose in Dec. The ISM Manufacturing index also showed a surprise increase for last month.

Back in Washington, the US Fed – which has now slashed Dollar lending rates by 225 basis points to 3.0% since the global banking crisis began last summer – put no time-limit on its new, extra-ordinary auctions of banking liquidity, promising to hold them every two weeks "for as long as necessary to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets."

[spob] 29/1/2008 20:40

Yes i have been long gold from around 440 GBP.

I have a portfolio of around 8 oil stocks from Jan last year which i regard as a very very long term locked ( throw away the key ) portfolio. Not to be touched, come what may. I take very little interest in the daily price moves of those and just focus on my other investments.

[abundance99] 29/1/2008 20:30

Hi again spob,

I think you are right re the management price fees above. According to etfsecurities website, when we buy PHAU insetad of getting a whole 1 / 10 of an ounce of gold, we actually get 0.997018 which reflects the amount taken off in the annual fee (0.39% pa I believe).

This leads to the slight distortion. Thanks for the pointer.

Have you joined the party yet? And what do youreckon re oil - will the recession push you to sell some?

[abundance99] 28/1/2008 20:20

Everything bubbling along nicely. $1000 may be here soon! And more value to come with the devaluing dollar. Tempted to buy more but hesitant as I already have a large % of my investments here and you never know when a pullback might come.

[spob] 08/1/2008 10:58

Management fees price erosion ?

Best to contact etf securities direct to confirm.

[abundance99] 07/1/2008 19:55

Anyone know why PHAU is not trading at 1 / 10th of the gold price in dollars any more? If you look at the PHAU chart and the kitco one above PHAU is slightly below. Any ideas why?

[dasv] 07/1/2008 19:04

long on PHAU today. Also bought RRS.

[abundance99] 20/12/2007 20:55

Despite the drop, with the fall in the pound PHGP set a new closing high.

[abundance99] 18/12/2007 14:16

Gold setting up a nice looking pennant. If it can close above 810 it'll be away again.

[abundance99] 18/12/2007 11:08

A good reason to hold gold and other commodities:

[abundance99] 17/12/2007 16:41

Bought sugar today (SUGA). Just made a technical breakout. Supplies this year looking like they won't meet demand. It's partly a play on the high oil price (high oil price means that Brazil will turn more sugar into ethanol and export less) so you might be interested spob.