Wt Physi Silv � Discussion Threads

[spittingbarrel] 13/3/2025 18:01

Great interview!

[skyship] 13/3/2025 17:06

Sprott on silver BOOM!!!

[cassini] 13/3/2025 16:25

Odd stuff going on at PSLV (via Maneco64 channel on YT)

[cassini] 12/3/2025 17:19

Hope so. Silver's such a tease...

[skyship] 12/3/2025 13:30

Now 5months since we last hit 2450. Looks to be headed there again in short order:


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[skyship] 26/2/2025 11:09

Looks like a retrace, kiss & go off the 50day SMA. As long as the 2200 level holds at the 200day SMA - BULL run reigns supreme...


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[sigmund freud] 14/2/2025 14:10

i have some fres, but it can be a dog. hold au, ag (real and paper), blackrock gold & gen, and gpm. don't think i will ever be completely sure with any miner, but good luck to those with a lot of skin in the mining game

[skyship] 14/2/2025 14:01

Cassini - thanks for that - a good resume on the position.

Rather confirms my buy & hold PHSP as a medium term play on the rising Gold/Silver.

I do hold a few American Eagles (silver dollars) and a few First Majestic roundels (1 oz). But only c£2000'worth.

Buying a silver stock is a whole different story; though could be a good thing if Aussie or Canadian.

I prefer to hold Greatland Gold (GGP) - my largest holding by quite some distance!

[sigmund freud] 14/2/2025 13:57

PHSP costs me less than holding the real stuff, but i keep clear of LISL. the costs of storing gold are quite a bit less than holding silver. i prefer to watch PHSP than PHAG, because as a uk-based investor with assets in £, the £ price is far more important to me.

the PHSP chart also has a lot less further to go to decade+ highs in Ag price than PHAG has.

the long term chart says this has quite a long way to go up. ignore the short term fluctuations.

as for financial catastrophe, there will be plenty of warning to switch out of asset-backed "paper" gold into the real stuff. unless putin drops the bomb on us, in which case i will have far more to worry about like food and water. silver coins will be much more useful than gold in that situation for the day to day stuff.

[cassini] 14/2/2025 12:58

SKYSHIP,

The trouble with the PM ETFs is that they charge an annual fee as you no doubt know, I think it's about 0.49%? from memory for PHSP. It's subtracted from the ETF price so it's 'unseen' by the holder.

Now 0.49% isn't a large annual fee and it will be quite acceptable to most people - indeed I held PHSP for something like 7 to 8 years (in fairness to me, life got busy) when I went underwater on silver back around 2012 and didn't break even until 2020. However, I believe the ETF is priced around one ounce of silver so we can see that, priced at £24/oz it has since 2007 lost a few quid compared to the current silver price of about £27.45/oz.

The situation with the geared ETFs like LSIL2(?) or LSIL3(?) is incomparably worse mind you as they suffer from something I believe is called stochastic drag (?), a numerical effect caused by their reset at the close of each day.

I can see where you're coming from though as (a) physical silver has VAT charged on it unlike here and (b) of course holding large enough amounts of physical silver to be worthwhile is something of a logistical nightmare and may well attract CGT (unless coins of the realm). Then there's the buy/sell spread from a dealer.

So I may be contradicting my original post here, but yes, outside proxies like silver miners etc, a silver ETF is probably the only practical way to hold silver (the silver coin-stackers won't agree but they're secretly waiting for a financial collapse ;0) but it would perhaps be a more efficient approach to use ETFs to trade silver based on periods of favourable market forces rather than dumping cash into PHSP say like it was Premium Bonds then sitting back and waiting ;0)

I believe I'm right in saying there is no Stamp Duty on PHSP/PHGP so that is not a factor against trading.

Then there's the whole 'buy 'n hold' versus 'trading' argument which I won't get into here.

The situation is rather different with gold, in that physical ownership and the logistics of buying are easier than with silver, no VAT and no CGT on coins of the realm. Also, ardent goldbugs will tell you that 'if you don't hold it, you don't own it'. There is an insurance aspect to holding physical PMs, in that in a breakdown or reset of the monetary system, as commodities they should survive any such event and retain their worth, whereas something like a PM ETF has various liabilities associated with it, like who really owns the PMs, are there any counterclaimants in the event of a systemic financial reset and whether confiscation is a possibility.

That might appear like a fantastical scenario but IMO the West has, by and large, painted itself into a fiscal corner and we saw smaller countries' financial systems implode in 2008. The world financial system was not 'fixed' by the actions of governments back then. Really, IMO they just printed a LOT of money and used that to lubricate things but this just kicked the can down the road. I'm not sure how it's going to get out of it except either by chicanery or a financial 'event', but the end of the road looms closer and I don't think there's far to go now. Next five years should see it run out...

What do I know though?

[skyship] 14/2/2025 09:13

Cassini - "I think ETFs are an ideal vehicle for trading the ups and downs, not long term buy and hold."

Well, I hold PHSP as a long term Buy & Hold - & very happy to be doing so; especially as breaking through 2400 today.

Q: What would you recommend as a long term Buy & Hold for silver?

[hazl] 12/2/2025 15:11

It's up now guys.

[cassini] 12/2/2025 15:06

Well, that bounce came from a hot US inflation print...

[action] 11/2/2025 13:25

Dropped like a stone. Why? Anyone

[action] 11/2/2025 10:10

Will Silver demand take hit due to tariff war brewing in turn lower price for metal?

[skyship] 10/2/2025 08:31

Gold will do well in 2025 but silver prices will do much better - AuAg Fund’s Strand
Kitco Media……By Neils Christensen ….. Feb 04, 2025
The Leading News Source in Precious Metals

Kitco NEWS has a diverse team of journalists reporting on the economy, stock markets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining and metals with accuracy and objectivity. Our goal is to help people make informed market decisions through in-depth reporting, daily market roundups, interviews with prominent industry figures, comprehensive coverage (often exclusive) of important industry events and analyses of market-affecting developments.


While gold is expected to perform well this year, with one firm predicting prices hitting $3,300 an ounce, investors are also being encouraged to pay attention to other metals.

Despite gold's expected success in 2025, Eric Strand, founder of the boutique precious metals firm AuAg Funds, anticipates that silver will perform even better. In his latest silver outlook, Strand said he expects silver to retest its 2011 all-time highs near $50 an ounce.

Strand’s bullish outlook comes as silver tests initial support near $32 an ounce. At the same time, silver continues to struggle to get out from under gold’s shadow, with the yellow metal trading near record highs above $2,800 an ounce. The gold/silver ratio (GSR) has declined from its one-year high but remains elevated above 88 points. The ratio’s long-term historical average is around 60 points.
“Currently, the GSR stands at a high 90:1, making silver particularly attractive as an investment,” Strand said. “Our short-term target for 2025 is for GSR to go towards 70:1, then gradually to 50:1, and then over several years, to 30:1. A GSR of 70:1, combined with a gold price of 3,000 – 3,300 USD, would give a silver price of 42 – 47 USD per troy ounce, which would be equivalent to an annual return of +45% and +62% respectively.”

Strand said he is bullish on silver this year due to its dual role as both a monetary and critical industrial metal.
Regarding its monetary role, Strand said silver is an attractive inflation hedge as governments, led by the U.S., continue deficit spending to support a struggling global economy.

“As we wrote in our Gold Outlook, the US, led by Trump, wants to avoid a ‘bust’ at all costs to create a positive ‘boom’ sentiment. The price to be paid for continuing stimulating the economy is monetary inflation,” he said in the report. “An inflationary boom creates an environment where commodity prices, including silver, surge. And it’s not just the U.S.—global debt levels are reaching new record highs. The money supply in the system is growing rapidly without any substantial growth being created, resulting in each monetary unit losing value, driving up the price of monetary metals like silver.”

Looking at silver’s industrial allure, Strand said demand for solar energy will continue to drive interest in the precious metal. Additionally, he noted that silver’s unique properties — being the most conductive metal for electricity and heat — make it a critical component in the high-tech evolution and electrification of the global economy.

At the same time, the supply of silver has not kept pace with insatiable market demand.

“After several years of deficit in supply relative to demand, we are facing a situation that will have a major impact on the price of silver. A physical shortage could trigger a price surge, potentially doubling silver’s value in a short period,” Strand said. “In addition, demand is inelastic, as we will not consume less silver regardless of price increases. This is due to silver’s irreplaceable properties and the fact that the amount of silver used per product is relatively small, meaning price surges rarely impact the final product's cost significantly.”;

[skyship] 01/2/2025 10:15

Analysts tip silver to outperform gold as supply deficit persists
Go to Colin Hay author's page
By Colin Hay - Small Caps - January 30, 2025

Substantial silver deficit
The Washington-headquartered Silver Institute reported overnight that it expected the global silver market to remain in a sizeable deficit in 2025 for a fifth consecutive year.

It also forecast that industrial demand would remain the key driver of the favourable silver supply/demand backdrop, with volumes projected to hit a new record high.

According to the institute’s latest report, concerns about President Trump’s anticipated tariff policies have fuelled short covering and deliveries of silver (and other precious metals) into Chicago Mercantile Exchange warehouses since late 2024.

Coupled with rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties, this has underpinned a healthy recovery in silver prices since the start of 2025.

China weighs on sentiment
“Over the same time, silver investment has faced several challenges [such as] ongoing concerns about the prospects for the Chinese economy,” the institute reported.

“[This] helps explain the elevated gold:silver ratio that has persisted.”

The new study forecast that global silver demand is likely to remain broadly stable at 1.2 billion ounces in 2025, with gains in industrial applications and retail investment offset by weaker jewellery and silverware demand.

Silver industrial fabrication is tipped to grow by 3% this year, with volumes on track to surpass 700 million ounces for the first time.

While growth in the automotive industry is anticipated to slow, the institute believes that greater vehicle sophistication, the electrification of trains (albeit at a reduced pace) and ongoing investment will boost silver demand.

Consumer electronics boost
Gains are also expected in the consumer electronics market, as the development of artificial intelligence systems continues to boost product offerings.

Demand for silver in the “other” industrial category should edge higher, mainly due to some upside in the ethylene oxide sector.

While physical investment in silver is also tipped to increase by 3% due to improving demand in Europe and North America, weakness in India is anticipated to cause silver jewellery demand to fall by 6%.

At the same time, global silver supply is forecast to grow by 3% in 2025 to an 11-year high of 1.05Boz, with silver mine production also expected to rise 2% to a seven-year high of 844 Moz.

[cassini] 30/1/2025 17:42

I got back in a couple(?) of weeks ago - shouldn't have sold really.

I saw this:



from a YT channel (Maneco64) I follow. The chap that runs the channel put out a second video in the same day, filmed after a golf game judging by his attire (!) something he never does, so he obviously thinks his news important.

He said that the BoE has stretched gold delivery out from a few days to 4-8 weeks, the implication being they have run out of immediately deliverable gold (no doubt it's all loaned out again as paper gold).

The run on gold seems to emanate from the USA where it would appear people are importing/repatriating gold to avoid potential tariffs from Trump.

This could potentially trigger some sort of default which could trigger some interesting price action.

I don't know any more than the next man of course but Maneco64 (Mario Innecco - one time bond trader and now gold fan and offerer of contrarian economic views as he puts it) is not generally an excitable sort, so it's interesting he's excited about this news...

Will this affect silver too? Possibly not as not so many people want to take delivery of silver due to its bulk.

[skyship] 30/1/2025 17:07

ZEROHEDGE:

Silver’s potential is undeniable—and 2025 could be the year it truly shines. Whether you’re an investor, a tech enthusiast, or just someone looking to protect their wealth, silver demands your attention this year.

Expanding Role in Electronics


Silver is critical in the manufacturing of electronic components. With the global surge in demand for smartphones, tablets, and other personal devices, the need for silver continues to climb. Its superior conductivity and thermal properties make it irreplaceable in these technologies.


Jewellery and Fashion Trends



Silver’s resurgence isn’t confined to industrial or tech use. The jewelry market remains strong, with silver becoming more popular due to its affordability compared to gold. Its aesthetic appeal is also fueling demand in luxury fashion and wearable accessories.


Silver’s Role in the Expanding Space Industry


As humanity pushes further into space exploration, silver’s thermal conductivity and durability are finding applications in spacecraft and satellite manufacturing. With space exploration becoming a multibillion-dollar industry, silver is cementing its role in this frontier.


Silver Supply Is Under Pressure


While demand for silver is soaring, mining output is struggling to keep up. Geopolitical tensions, labor shortages, and rising extraction costs have tightened supply chains. Major producers like Mexico and Peru reported declines in output last year, and 2025 isn’t looking much better. Scarcity drives value—and silver’s scarcity could push prices to new heights.


A Resurgent Market Breaking Records


Silver ended 2024 at its highest price in over a decade. Silver's price increased by nearly 35% in 2024 (outperforming gold's 32% gain), reaching a 12-year high of $32.33 per ounce on May 20, 2024.



Why? Because silver isn’t just an industrial metal—it’;s a safe haven. In times of economic turmoil, silver shines, offering a refuge for investors when traditional markets falter.


The Technology Edge: Silver in the Future


From 5G networks to medical devices and even space exploration, silver’s future versatility is unmatched. These innovations aren’t hypothetical; they’re happening now, and they’re driving up demand for this indispensable metal.

[skyship] 30/1/2025 15:56

Hopefully headed up to the top of the trendline:


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[skyship] 17/1/2025 16:42

3yr Gold v. 3yr Silver. Silver got some catching up to do:


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[skyship] 13/1/2025 14:26

May need to kiss 2200 again before a further move ahead...

[cassini] 10/1/2025 15:24

Gold at all-time Sterling highs, be nice to see silver able to say the same!

[skyship] 10/1/2025 13:26

The 200day SMA provided the support, now moving ahead again quite nicely; broken North of the 50day SMA but needs to break 2310 to challenge recent peaks:


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