Wt Nat Gas 2x Discussion Threads

[grantclarke] 10/9/2010 10:11

Aug27
Twelve of 27 analysts, or 44 percent, forecast gas futures for October delivery will rise on the New York Mercantile Exchange through Sept. 3. Seven, or 26 percent, predicted prices will decline and eight said there would be little change. Last week, 41 percent of participants said gas would fall. Gas yesterday settled at the lowest level since Sept. 28.

"The decline in prices has been at odds with the natural gas storage data," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. A narrowing surplus is a "trend that normally correlates with an intermediate-term rally in natural gas prices."

[mart] 07/9/2010 11:49

wig
Like to post that on the general gas thread as well 'cos I'm sure it's of general interest.
thanks

[wig123] 07/9/2010 11:39

07/09 12:37 - CFTC: Natural-Gas Speculators Boost Net-Short Position

(This article was originally published Friday.)


NEW YORK(Dow Jones)--Large noncommercial traders increased their net-short position in natural-gas futures this week, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported Friday.

Speculative, or noncommercial, traders added 1,062 contracts to their long position in futures-only contracts and 1,572 contracts to their short position, yielding a net-short position of 163,706, up 510 from the previous week.

Open interest decreased by 12,088 contracts from the previous week to 816,477.

In futures and options combined, noncommercial traders were net short by 104,698 contracts, up 256 from the previous week.

Commercial traders were net-long in futures-only contracts by 129,734 contracts, 1,337 less than the previous week. These traders cut 3,689 contracts to their long position and cut 2,352 contracts from their short position.

The net-long position is the difference between the number of long positions, or bets that prices will rise, and short positions, or bets that prices will fall.


Week Ended Previous
Aug. 31 Week
NYMEX GAS FUTURES ONLY
Long
Noncommercial 113,993 112,931
Commercial 357,416 361,105
Short
Noncommercial 277,699 276,127
Commercial 227,682 230,034

NYMEX GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS COMBINED
Long
Noncommercial 169,345 165,957
Commercial 367,897 373,313
Short
Noncommercial 274,043 270,399
Commercial 299,697 304,078

Money managers, such as hedge funds, increased their net-short position in Nymex natural-gas futures to 127,457, up 80 from the previous week, after adding to both long contracts and short contracts.

The CFTC began splitting large traders into four categories in September 2009. Money managers and other reportables comprise the previous "noncommercial" column, while swap dealers and producers, merchants, processors and users were broken out of the commercial category.


Week Ended Previous
Aug. 31 Week
NYMEX GAS FUTURES ONLY
Long
Producers/Users 96,291 103,314
Swap Dealers 180,800 177,359
Money Managers 95,015 91,658
Other Reportables 18,978 21,273
Short
Producers/Users 113,709 115,575
Swap Dealers 33,648 34,027
Money Managers 222,472 219,035
Other Reportables 55,227 57,092

NYMEX GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS COMBINED
Long
Producers/Users 100,093 108,078
Swap Dealers 169,519 166,288
Money Managers 146,888 141,426
Other Reportables 22,457 24,531
Short
Producers/Users 118,521 120,430
Swap Dealers 82,891 84,701
Money Managers 218,449 214,611
Other Reportables 55,595 55,788

[romeoandjuliet] 03/9/2010 13:40

Come on the hurricanes.

Naturual gas historically likes Septembers!

[mrbitt] 31/8/2010 07:15

Reasonable start ;-)

[mrbitt] 29/8/2010 14:01

posted on iii by Wig123

[indigo85] 26/8/2010 09:18

Got to be a bounce on the cards.

[romeoandjuliet] 25/8/2010 12:25

Did I say 65?

Think i might wait for 53!

[wine is good] 14/7/2010 19:55

69 and they are mine ;-)

[indigo85] 14/7/2010 19:49

67 and I'll be in.

[romeoandjuliet] 14/7/2010 15:43

65 will be tempted

[wig123] 08/7/2010 14:43

itchy finger here ;-) 68 might be tempting

[wig123] 08/7/2010 13:09

C2, you tempted here yet?

[contrarian2investor] 21/5/2010 19:30

wig123,

Sadly no. I just nipped in for 100 points and ran like a scared pup.

How did you week pan out?

c2i

[notanewmember2] 19/5/2010 19:55

Gas, a classic case of - A market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Wait for the ichimoku clouds to turn green for a new uptrend


and

[contrarian2investor] 19/5/2010 19:39

wig123,

It's time to come and play again. You know to want to!
----------------------------------------------------------

Hi all,

What a difference a day makes.
------------------------------c2i

MAY 18, 2010, 10:13 A.M. ET.US GAS: Futures Climb In Anticipation Of Weather-Related Demand

By Jason Womack Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Natural-gas futures moved higher Tuesday as traders buy back contracts in anticipation of summer and increased weather-related demand for the fuel, despite high levels of natural gas in storage.

Natural gas for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange recently traded 7.1 cents, or 1.61%, higher at $4.469 a million British thermal units. The front-month contract reached a high of $4.494/MMBtu earlier in the session.

Natural gas prices have been moving steadily higher as traders, who had bet on falling prices, buy back contracts ahead of summer -- which brings more demand for the fuel for electricity generation and the potential supply disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico from hurricanes.

Gene McGillian, an analyst with Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., said the natural gas market appears to have discounted high levels of natural gas in storage and spring weather, which has tempered demand for the fuel.

"The market is turning its attention to the next season," McGillian said, noting that the "pressure is on the upside right now."

However, high levels of natural gas in storage are also expected to limit price advances.

Jim Ritterbusch, president of the energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday that high gas inventories "will quell commercial buying interest at these higher levels."

Natural gas in U.S. storage for the week ended May 7 stood at 2.089 trillion cubic feet -- 4.9% higher than last year and 18.4% above the five-year average. Inventories have swelled this year as producers ramped up drilling in prolific onshore natural gas fields known as shales and winter heating demand for gas faded.

At the same time, weather forecasts are predicting warmer-than-normal temperatures across key natural gas demand centers. The National Weather Service is predicting above-normal temperatures in the Northeast, the Midwest and in parts of the Southeast and Texas from May 23 to May 27.

"Gas keeps pushing higher, apparently on hopes that an expected heat wave between May 22nd and May 26th covering most of the Midwest and East Coast will generate enough cooling demand to make a significant dent" in stored gas, Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst with MF Global in New York wrote in a note to clients.
---------------------------
US GAS: Futures Tumble On Global Economic Concerns
05/19/2010 02:21PM


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures tumbled Wednesday on global economic concerns that roiled the broader commodities and equities markets.

Natural gas for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 18.4 cents lower, or 4.24%, at $4.158 a million British thermal units after reaching a low of $4.131/MMBtu earlier in the day.

Natural gas futures slid on concerns about Europe's debt crisis and a report that U.S. mortgage delinquencies rose to a record in the first quarter. Gas traders have been eyeing economic data closely for signs of a rebound that would boost energy demand.

"Industrial demand has been the biggest Achilles heel for natural gas for the last couple of years," said Chris Jarvis, the president of Caprock Risk Management, an energy investment and analysis firm.

Ample supplies and moderate temperatures were also pressuring gas prices lower Wednesday. But if market expectations of a smaller-than-normal build in U.S. gas inventories for last week pan out, gas futures could pare losses on Thursday.

Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show a below-average build in gas inventories because of brisk temperatures in the major gas-consuming regions last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 78 billion cubic feet of gas were added to storage during the week ended May 14, according to the average prediction of 23 analysts and traders in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

The EIA is scheduled to release its storage data Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT. The storage estimate falls short of last year's 100 bcf build in storage for the same week and the five-year average build for that week, which was 93 bcf.

If the estimate is correct, inventories as of May 14 will total 2.167 trillion cubic feet, about 17% above the five-year average and 3.6% above last year's level for the same week.

Unusual late-season cold last week sparked demand for natural gas for heating, leading to a modest injection of gas into storage, traders and analysts predicted. Rising industrial demand as the economy improves is also boosting gas consumption, and gas producers are starting to pull back in response to low prices, said Bill Costello, the president of Bull Run Energy Research in Boston, Mass.

"We do think industrial demand is improving and we believe we are starting to see some signs of activity moderating on the drilling side," Costello wrote in a note to clients.


-By Christine Buurma, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2143; [e-mail]

[indigo85] 18/5/2010 11:16

Whatever it was in July or October 2009, or Jan 2010 should get things moving. But I'm no expert!

[contrarian2investor] 18/5/2010 11:07

indigo85,

What in your view would Natural Gas need to reach in order to register on the long-term chart?

c2i

[indigo85] 18/5/2010 10:56

Appears to be rising nicely. When it registers on the long-term chart I will be impressed.

[contrarian2investor] 14/5/2010 11:46

wig123,

Sadly my Natural Gas spreadbet got stopped out at 4.311 just now, profit of 400 points. I had placed a tight stop-loss because of the behaviour of crude oil this morning.

I'll be back with another spreadbet at some point. I will wait to see how Natural Gas behaves when the CME opens later today. I intend to hold unto my NGAS etf. However I have place a 5% stop-loss there also. Because I always buy it back at a later date.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 13/5/2010 17:53

wig123,

The CEO of MHG! You must be very well connected? All the best with that one.

c2i

[wig123] 13/5/2010 17:29

Typical C2 ;-( I am using reverse psychology in future on my trading. When I want to press the buy button I am gonna press the sell instead and visa versa. Had I have done it in the past I would of been super loaded by now.


As I type, gas up 2.15% @ 4.38 the price turned within seconds of me selling having sat on lnga for weeks ! Conspiracy !!!!! , coupled with the fact I went to cash this morning on my other holdings, not a good day. But didnt lose out, and having spoke with the ceo of MHG today I am happy that I added further there for a longer term view.