Wt Copper 1x S Discussion Threads

[golfer25] 20/1/2011 14:46

down you pig!

[golfer25] 20/1/2011 12:48

copper under pressure

[golfer25] 20/1/2011 07:32

china gdp 10%+ Lets hope china raise rates again

[golfer25] 19/1/2011 22:36

Hopefully this is the top of the ridiculous spike for copper

[golfer25] 19/1/2011 16:18

Cant belive no posts since November

[golfer25] 19/1/2011 15:43

JUst got stuck in

[contrarian2investor] 16/11/2010 20:31

I hope all you guys have been loading up over the last few days at sub 30. If the $ continues its appreciation short-term and Asia continues to tighten. Then COPPER will/should fall sharply towards at least $3.50 lb.

c2i

[abc125] 05/11/2010 21:59

Copper nearly at $4lb! Unbelievable.

I might have a look at scop in jan. I can't see markets making a meaningful pullback until then.

[tommyttrades] 27/10/2010 15:31

Took the plunge today ...Ok for sub$32

Looking to hold all through next week at minimum and as a hedge against a larger trade I've made elsewhere on TSX

[tommyttrades] 26/10/2010 11:05

Another ETF..

J.P. Morgan has filed paperwork with the SEC for a "J.P. Morgan Physical Copper Shares" ETF.

To be held in warehouses..One of those warehouses in Liverpool was recently broken into and copper & nickel stolen

[wig123] 08/10/2010 10:23

08/10 10:17 - FOCUS: Asian Downstream Copper Demand Weak; Low Visibility

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Downstream copper demand in Asia is sluggish and falling according to some market participants, just as the bullish consensus among analysts at banks and brokers reaches an unprecedented fever pitch.

Copper rallied to $8,326/ton Wednesday, its highest level since mid-2008 Wednesday, driven by fund buying which is ostensibly based on solid and improving fundamentals, but also clearly related to indications that the Federal Reserve will undertake more monetary easing measures.

Copper is up 6% since the last Federal Reserve meeting on September 21 while ever more bullish price projections are coming thick and fast with Goldman Sachs suggesting in a report this week that copper could hit $11,000/ton next year.

This is in contrast to the situation in the physical market in Asia where spot premiums are falling and demand appears to be slackening.

"It's changed in the last two or three months. Most of our customers are pushing orders out. Our book-to-bill ratio is now below 1," said an executive at a major European copper fabricator in Singapore.

The book-to-bill ratio refers to the demand to supply ratio. A ratio below 1 means it has less orders than it can deliver.

"We have key customers in Taiwan who have cut orders by 30% to 40%. Taiwan is good leading indicator of what is happening in the China market," he said.

This view was echoed by an executive at one of Taiwan's biggest trading houses.

"I agree with that 110%. Our visibility has dropped to below one month," said Tim Tu, President at United Metals Enterprise.

"We can't talk about 2011 at this stage. I'll sit down with clients in November and see what's changed," he said.

A trading manager at a major physical broker in Singapore said supply of semi-fabricated stocks in China is "abundant" while premium bids for refined copper in Shanghai bonded warehouses are below producer premium levels of $80.

"Trading houses are seeing bids of as low as $50 so they are unwilling to let go of stock as long as they have enough cash. I'm not sure where all this copper will go," he said.

Participants say the major worry remains China's overheated property market with many taking the view that the government would take further restrictive measures against speculation and mal-investment, potentially blunting a key source of copper demand.

This is supported by the recent trading pattern in China with spot copper prices trading at a persistent discount to futures prices indicating actual physical demand is subdued.

"China has reasonably high levels of inventory," said UME's Tu.

Nor have China-based participants shown any inclination to chase recent gains on the London Metal Exchange, with Shanghai copper trading at a deep and consistent discount to London contracts.

The bullish case for copper mainly relies on stagnant mine supply growth, something no-one disputes.

The demand side is another matter though, with no real visibility on China's off-exchange stockpile and estimates of 'apparent' or 'implied' demand much less reliable than the mine or smelter output data on the supply side.

Falling LME inventories certainly point to a tighter market, but LME warehouse stocks at 372,000 tons are still around double the average levels in 2007 and 2008 and there's no guarantee the trend won't reverse if demand is in fact weakening.

"We have a stockpile of 7,000 tons (off exchange) in Singapore and 2,000 tons on the way. We are not ordering any more," said the executive at the fabricator in Singapore, which buys copper directly from Codelco

[spob] 08/10/2010 04:00

I see so many trading opportunities right now, but cant win em all

Perhaps I should liquidate everything and start over

[spob] 08/10/2010 03:59

havn't traded copper since earlier in the year


pretty maxed out elsewhere at the moment

would have to close other positions to short copper right now

but would wait for a downtrend before doing so

[contrarian2investor] 01/9/2010 12:55

Hi all lurkers/non posters,

As COPPER nears $3.50 lb I will be looking to repurchase SCOP. As SCOP will be sub 35.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 22/6/2010 19:21

Hi all,

Lots of visitors but no recent posts.

Copper Falls on Speculation Yesterday's Climb Was Exaggerated
June 22, 2010, 8:35 AM EDT


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Copper Prices Rise for Second Day as Chinese Imports May Climb
June 22, 2010, 1:09 PM EDT


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JUNE 22, 2010, 1:40 P.M. ET.Chile Peso Closes Slightly Weaker On Euro, LME Copper Tumbles

By Carolina Pica Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

SANTIAGO (Dow Jones)--Chile's peso ended moderately weaker against the dollar Tuesday on the tumbles in the euro and copper prices in London.

The peso ended at CLP532.10 to the dollar, versus Monday's close of CLP530.30, after trading in a range of CLP531.40 to CLP534.80.

The euro lost ground against the dollar midday Tuesday as optimism over possible appreciation of the Chinese yuan continued to fade and worries over the health of Europe's financial sector kept investors cautious.

In addition, worse-than-expected U.S. housing data contributed to investor pessimism, traders said.

As Europe is one of Chile's main trade partners, the peso often moves in the same direction the common currency does against the dollar.

Concerns over the the course the yuan will take also pulled down copper prices, with spot copper on the London Metal Exchange falling 2.2% from the previous session to $2.93 a pound, according to state copper commission Cochilco's daily market report.

The Andean nation is the world's leading copper producer, so its currency takes trading cues from LME and New York copper prices.

In the bond market, yields on inflation-indexed Chilean central bank bonds, or BCUs, ended lower as the market awaits the central bank's regularly scheduled auction of local sovereign debt on Wednesday.

On behalf of the government, the monetary authority will issue five-year, 20-year and 30-year bonds Wednesday.

The yield on five-year BCU bonds ended at 2.44%, from 2.49% Monday, while the yield on 10-year BCUs ended at 2.95%, versus 3.00% Monday. fnd @16

(Peso and bond yield closing quotes provided by Valor Futuro newswire.)

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 07/6/2010 15:13

tommyttrades,

Great article, much appreciated.
----------------------------------------------

Hi all,

Copper is now holding sub $290 lb and I have placed a closing target of $253.25 lb for my spreadbet that I have nervously held since $353.25 lb.
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LME copper slumps to eight-month low
By Jack Farchy

Published: June 7 2010



c2i

Yet I view a contrarian as anyone who looks at the current news and thinks, "What if it doesn't happen like that at all?"

[tommyttrades] 05/6/2010 09:33

Glad I've not tinkered or taken profits yet..Providing excellent cover.

Small article below from the SHFE

SHFE to lift minimum margin requirements for copper, zinc contracts
Interfax
4 June 2010
22:52


Shanghai. June 4. INTERFAX-CHINA - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) announced on June 3 that it will lift the minimum margin requirements for copper and zinc futures contracts on June 10 by 0.5 percent, to 8.5 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.

The minimum margin requirements for all other contracts traded on the SHFE will be raised to 10 percent in an attempt to reduce price-fluctuation risk around the Dragon Boat Festival, which falls on June 16.

Levels for most contracts will return to their pre-holiday status on June 17. For copper and zinc, however, minimum margin requirements will remain at 8.5 and 7.5 percent for the foreseeable future. This is due to recent zinc and copper price instability, the announcement noted.

The price of the most traded 2010 September copper contract on the SHFE fell from its recent high of RMB 64,070 ($9,383.42) per ton in mid April to RMB 53,380 ($7,817.81) per ton on June 3. Meanwhile, the price of the most traded 2010 September zinc contract on the SHFE fell from RMB 19,930 ($2,918.86) to RMB 15,010 ($2,198.3) per ton during the same period, mirroring the trend for copper and zinc contract prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at China's State Information Center, said at a May 29 Shanghai conference that the copper price in 2010 would be "rather volatile." Paul Robinson, a senior industry analyst with CRU Group, said on the same day that he expects the price of copper in 2010 to stand between $7,000 and $7,200 per ton.

Michael Jansen, a senior analyst with JP Morgan, feels that copper prices could reach a peak between June and July of this year.

A copper trader surnamed Wang told Interfax that the spot copper price on the Chinese market will most likely hover around between RMB 51,000 ($7,469.24) and RMB 55,000 ($8,055,07) in June.

"I also expect that copper prices will be higher in the second half of the year than they were in the first," he added.

[dnfa1975] 02/6/2010 08:13

scop rising

[contrarian2investor] 01/6/2010 22:36

bushtuckaman,

Thanks for the link, much appreciated.
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Hi all,

China worries are eating away at Copper again, so hopefully we will see sub $300 lb shortly.

Commodities' Biggest Drop Since Lehman Is Bear Signal (Update4)
June 01, 2010, 5:16 PM EDT



c2i

[bushtuckaman] 01/6/2010 09:26

I don't hold any SCOP but this may be of interest