Wt Copper 1x S Discussion Threads

[contrarian2investor] 11/3/2010 16:09

Hi all,

Breaking News 15:47 hrs

So expect further volatility.


Biggest aftershock hits Chile on inauguration day

Associated Press

Thursday, 11 March 2010



c2i

EDIT: HALF SHORT SPREADBET CLOSED AT $336

[contrarian2investor] 26/2/2010 16:49

Hi all,

Here is an article that I found via a commodity blogger which might be of interest.

c2i
---------------

February 25, 2010
Barclays Capital (NYSE: BCS) Copper Prices
Barclays Capital Copper Prices

Barclays Capital (NYSE: BCS), the investment arm of Barclays PLC, is high on copper prices for 2010, saying they see them going as high as $8,000 a ton in just the first half of 2010.

This is quite a change from projected prices of about $6,875 a ton for 2010, $7,000 a ton in 2011, and up to $8,500 in 2012.

The problem I have with these numbers is I think they are being offered on the assumption we are in an actual economic recovery, when in fact we aren't, as data from all over indicate.

With China cutting back significantly on copper imports this year, it does make you wonder where this demand is going to come from, with some throwing out it will be from Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries.

One possible event that could make this happen is the hoarding of copper in anticipation of potential future shortage which would in fact drive up prices significantly for those countries without copper reserves set aside like China has.

[abc125] 25/2/2010 16:36

good news.copper way overpriced.

[dnfa1975] 25/2/2010 11:31

cooking with gas

[spob] 25/2/2010 01:08

Thanks c2i


Goldman Sachs Closes Copper Bet on Recovery Outlook (Update1)

February 24, 2010,

By Stuart Wallace

Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ended its recommendation to bet on higher copper prices because of concern that economic recovery in developed markets is not "yet on solid footing."

The bank recommended buying copper for delivery in June on Feb. 5, since when the contract on the London Metal Exchange advanced 13 percent. Goldman may recommend the trade again should prices decline, analysts Allison Nathan, Jeffrey Currie and Tiger Chen said in a report today.

Copper more than doubled on the LME last year as investors anticipated that economies recovering from the steepest slump since World War II would use more commodities. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by the bourse have more than doubled since July and prices dropped 3.5 percent this year on speculation that mines will expand supply faster than gains in demand.

"Despite recent positive signs in Developed Market, we do not believe that DM is yet on solid footing," the analysts wrote in the report. "We, therefore, still view DM demand as a key risk to our view."

Demand from China, the world's biggest copper consumer, for global supplies may weaken because prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are now close to those in London, discouraging arbitrage trading, the bank said.

Goldman expects the three-month LME copper contract to trade at $8,125 a metric ton in six months and $7,840 in 12 months. The contract was at $7,090 as of 1:46 p.m. in London.

[contrarian2investor] 24/2/2010 22:46

Hi all,

I found the article below and thought it might be of interest.
You can never tell with GS. It might be factual then again it might be spin.

My SCOP holdings are in my bottom drawer for the long-term.
I will however trade copper via my spreadbetting account until it falls below $3 lb in the hope it hits $2.50 lb at some point.

Goldman Sachs Closes Copper Bet on Recovery Outlook (Update1)
February 24, 2010, 09:34 AM EST



c2i

[spob] 23/2/2010 18:29

just ring them up if you want to deal instantly

[abc125] 23/2/2010 16:27

yep, thats how i had to do it last week and today. I put in a fill and kill order.

I hope its not too difficult when i come to sell.

[spob] 23/2/2010 16:14

Sometimes, i have to put in an order and wait for execution

I could ring up, but i usually just put in an order

Barclays Stockbrokers

[abc125] 23/2/2010 13:42

Does anyone have difficulty buying/selling scop? I cannot get direct market buy/sell quotes with TDW.

[abc125] 22/2/2010 22:19

yep, went short last week, will add again in the next few days. Might even turn into a nice long term play.

Its a no brainer!

[spob] 22/2/2010 15:22

Just gone short copper again

up almost 20% since last exit


LME copper stocks still rising !

[contrarian2investor] 19/2/2010 17:52

Hi all,

Copper futures fell as low as $3.21 lb before hitting a high of $3.36 lb. So it would appear the bulls (the YANKS like to use soaring copper prices as a proxy for positive sentiment, which just adds to their spin)are back in charge. I am now back on the sidelines. Awaiting the next reversal of the current trend.

Please feel free to add comments in spob and my absence.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 18/2/2010 23:16

Those yanks know how to play the markets don't they.
How long before Gordon follows?

Metals just got slammed.
Lets see how things get played out during Friday's trading.
Could copper fall back to test 61.8% Fib at $3.17 lb?
Most of today's leveraged buyers will be cursing the US Fed tonight & tomorrow .

c2i
----------

Release Date: February 18, 2010
For release at 4:30 p.m. EDT

The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday announced that in light of continued improvement in financial market conditions it had unanimously approved several modifications to the terms of its discount window lending programs.

Like the closure of a number of extraordinary credit programs earlier this month, these changes are intended as a further normalization of the Federal Reserve's lending facilities. The modifications are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and do not signal any change in the outlook for the economy or for monetary policy, which remains about as it was at the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). At that meeting, the Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and said it anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The changes to the discount window facilities include Board approval of requests by the boards of directors of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks to increase the primary credit rate (generally referred to as the discount rate) from 1/2 percent to 3/4 percent. This action is effective on February 19.

In addition, the Board announced that, effective on March 18, the typical maximum maturity for primary credit loans will be shortened to overnight. Primary credit is provided by Reserve Banks on a fully secured basis to depository institutions that are in generally sound condition as a backup source of funds. Finally, the Board announced that it had raised the minimum bid rate for the Term Auction Facility (TAF) by 1/4 percentage point to 1/2 percent. The final TAF auction will be on March 8, 2010.

Easing the terms of primary credit was one of the Federal Reserve's first responses to the financial crisis. On August 17, 2007, the Federal Reserve reduced the spread of the primary credit rate over the FOMC's target for the federal funds rate to 1/2 percentage point, from 1 percentage point, and lengthened the typical maximum maturity from overnight to 30 days. On December 12, 2007, the Federal Reserve created the TAF to further improve the access of depository institutions to term funding. On March 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve lowered the spread of the primary credit rate over the target federal funds rate to 1/4 percentage point and extended the maximum maturity of primary credit loans to 90 days.

Subsequently, in response to improving conditions in wholesale funding markets, on June 25, 2009, the Federal Reserve initiated a gradual reduction in TAF auction sizes. As announced on November 17, 2009, and implemented on January 14, 2010, the Federal Reserve began the process of normalizing the terms on primary credit by reducing the typical maximum maturity to 28 days.

The increase in the discount rate announced Thursday widens the spread between the primary credit rate and the top of the FOMC's 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 percentage point. The increase in the spread and reduction in maximum maturity will encourage depository institutions to rely on private funding markets for short-term credit and to use the Federal Reserve's primary credit facility only as a backup source of funds. The Federal Reserve will assess over time whether further increases in the spread are appropriate in view of experience with the 1/2 percentage point spread.

[blingbling123] 18/2/2010 16:29

dropped quite a bit. $36 would be a good re entry. A bit worried about a blow of top on the dow to 12000 though!

[contrarian2investor] 18/2/2010 16:07

Hi all,

In the last hour copper along with the other metals has risen.
Copper taking out the 50% Fib retracement level of $3.27 lb.
It will be interesting to see if it closes the week out above that level.

c2i

[whiterussians] 18/2/2010 15:09

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell in New York as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's strength, gained as much as 0.4 percent. A stronger dollar makes metals priced in the currency more expensive for holders of other monies. Copper also slid without demand from China, where markets are closed this week for the Lunar New Year holiday.

[contrarian2investor] 18/2/2010 11:49

spob,

I already have a holding of SALU after reading a similiar article in NOV 09.
---------------------

I wanted to add that "those entities" buying copper on the LME via sterling or the euro. Now have less buying power following the past 2 months depreciation of said currencies. With potentially more depreciation loomimg they will cease buying and increase their deliveries of previously warehoused copper. Or they may even re-sale previously warehoused stock at higher prices ( or parity) of last summer.

c2i

edit: Time 12.25 18/2/09 SURPLUS INVENTORY

LIMA, Feb 17, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --

TOP STORIES:

Peru Govt Suspends Small Copper Gold Miner After Protests

In an unexpected move, Peru's government suspended the mining rights of a small copper and gold miner Wednesday. The reason given was objections by resident communities in the area.

STORIES OF INTEREST:

WBMS: Global Copper Market In 209,300 Ton Surplus In 2009

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The global copper market was in a 209,300 metric ton surplus in 2009, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

WBMS: Global Aluminum Market In 587,000 Ton Surplus In 2009

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The global aluminum market was in a 587,000 metric ton surplus in 2009, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

UPDATE: WBMS: Global Zinc Market In 207,000-Ton Surplus In '09

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 207,000 metric tons in 2009, up 14% from the surplus in 2008, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

UPDATE: WBMS: Global Nickel Market In 3,000-Ton Surplus In '09

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The global refined nickel market was in a slight surplus of 3,000 metric tons in 2009, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

UPDATE: WBMS: Global Tin Market In 12,900-Ton Surplus In 2009

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The global refined tin market was in a modest surplus of 12,900 metric tons in 2009, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

WBMS: Global Lead Market In 19,900 Ton Deficit In 2009

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The global lead market was in a 19,900 metric ton deficit in 2009, the World Bureau of Metal Statistics said Wednesday.

MARKETS:

BASE METALS: NY Copper Rises On Data; Gains Limited By Dollar

Copper futures settled modestly higher Wednesday when housing and industrial data were seen as supportive for copper demand, but with the gains limited since the economic reports also sent the dollar sharply higher.

BASE METALS: Metals End Mostly Lower, Consolidate After Rally

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Base metals were mostly lower on the London Metal Exchange Wednesday as they consolidated the large gains made since the start of the week.

[dnfa1975] 18/2/2010 08:10

COPA going down, SCOP should go up...