Wt Copper 1x S Discussion Threads

[dnfa1975] 01/6/2010 08:52

time to buy?

[contrarian2investor] 27/5/2010 22:26

abc125,

I am holding out for the China meltdown and the flash forward lows of the DOW (9775) being met and then breached.

I am scalping other spreadbet positions due to the fact that I chose not to close my Copper spreadbet at sub $300 lb. I hope that does not prove to be foolhardy.

My SCOP position remains intact and my target remains 45 plus.

All the best to you, I am pleased that you managed make a profit from your investment.

c2i

[abc125] 27/5/2010 21:11

Hi c2i

I sold out a couple of days ago because i felt we are in for a short term uptrend. I will buy back in when the next leg down in markets commences.

Good luck.

[contrarian2investor] 27/5/2010 13:22

Hi all,

The volatility continues.
-------------------------c2i



Copper Oversupply Leads to Downside Risk
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Copper Advances on Speculation U.S. Economy Will Feed Demand
May 27, 2010, 5:24 AM EDT

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose for a second day in London on speculation that an improving economy in the U.S., the world's second-biggest consumer, will feed demand.

A report today may show that the country's economy expanded at a faster pace in the first quarter than previously calculated. The U.S. recovery is "on track," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said. Purchases of new U.S. homes jumped last month and orders for durable goods rose, reports showed yesterday.

"We are still in the peak demand period for base metals," Randy North, a trader at RBC Capital Markets in London, said today by phone. "It's too early to go short," he said, referring to bets on lower prices.

Copper for delivery in three months rose $101, or 1.5 percent, to $6,880 a metric ton at 9:46 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. Futures for July delivery advanced 1 percent to $3.1115 a pound on the Comex in New York. All of the six main metals traded on the LME gained except tin.

Still, copper is headed for a second straight monthly drop, hurt by concern about Europe's sovereign-debt crisis and potential steps by China to restrain its surging economy. The metal has slid 7.4 percent in May on the LME.

"Until the European mess clears up, we're going to see prices" moving within ranges, North said.

Stronger Dollar

The European crisis has helped to pull copper prices down by weighing on the euro and boosting the dollar. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals more expensive in terms of other monies.

Copper rose today as the U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's strength, fell for the first time this week, dropping as much as 0.9 percent. China, the biggest copper user, said a report that it's reviewing foreign-exchange holdings of euro assets is "groundless."

Prices also climbed as copper stockpiles tracked by the LME shrank for an eighth day in a row.

"The fundamental backdrop remains supportive for base metals, with macroeconomic data surprising to the upside and inventories at the LME declining," Stefan Graber, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Singapore wrote in a report today.

Inventories fell 0.3 percent to 477,775 tons and are headed for a third monthly drop in a row. Including those monitored by exchanges in Shanghai and New York, they totaled 737,618 tons, the lowest since February. Bookings to remove metal from LME warehouses fell 4.9 percent to 23,650 tons.

Aluminum for three-month delivery on the LME added 0.5 percent to $2,025 a ton. Zinc climbed 1.1 percent to $1,910 a ton and lead increased 2.7 percent to $1,910 a ton. Tin was unchanged at $17,575 a ton and nickel rose 2.1 percent to $21,550 a ton

[contrarian2investor] 21/5/2010 11:38

Hi all,

Here is an article that might be of interest.




c2i

[contrarian2investor] 18/5/2010 11:14

Hi all,

The volatility continues. Copper clinging onto $3.00 lb. Lets see what the YANKS do this afternoon.
-------------------------c2i

Copper Advances in London on Dollar, Reduced Austerity Concern
May 18, 2010, 5:24 AM EDT

By Anna Stablum

May 18 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose in London, rebounding from the biggest two-day slump since December 2008, on a weaker dollar and on reduced concern that austerity measures may threaten Europe's economic recovery.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's strength, fell after five gains in a row. Concern about the effect of pared budgets yesterday helped the euro to slide to the lowest level against the dollar since April 2006. Only high-deficit countries including Spain and Portugal will be ordered to make more cuts, European finance ministers said.

"With the dollar weaker and fears regarding destabilization of the euro receding, a bit of risk appetite has crept back into the market and encouraged buying in base metals," said Randy North, a trader at RBC Capital Markets in London.

Copper for delivery in three months rose $160.25, or 2.5 percent, to $6,630.25 a metric ton at 9:46 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The contract slid 9.6 percent in the prior two sessions and yesterday touched the lowest intraday price since Feb. 9. Futures for July delivery gained 2.4 percent to $3.0035 a pound on the Comex in New York.

The dollar index dropped as much as 0.3 percent. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals cheaper in terms of other monies. The gauge has advanced 11 percent this year as LME copper has dropped 10 percent.

Spain's Budget

Greece's debt crisis won't unleash a continent-wide austerity drive with the potential to tip the economy back into a recession and further undercut the euro, the ministers said. Spain this month unveiled the largest budget cuts in at least 30 years to reduce its deficit, and Portugal pledged to slash wages and raise taxes.

Copper stockpiles tracked by the LME fell 0.2 percent to 483,150 tons. Bookings to remove metal from inventories dropped 3.8 percent to 18,350 tons.

Aluminum for three-month delivery on the LME rose 1.7 percent to $2,024.50 a ton and lead gained 1.1 percent to $1,825 a ton. Zinc climbed 1.3 percent to $1,925 a ton, tin advanced 0.7 percent to $17,300 a ton and nickel gained 1 percent to $20,900 a ton.

Stockpiles of aluminum in LME-monitored warehouses rose for the first day in 17. They have dropped 2.6 percent this year. Between 75 percent and 80 percent of LME inventories of the lightweight metal are tied into financing agreements, Deutsche Bank AG estimates. A single party held 30 percent to 39 percent of aluminum stockpiles, according to exchange figures as of May 13.

Chinese Demand

Aluminum consumption in China, the world's largest user and maker, may expand 20 percent this year as the economy extends a recovery, according to CBI China Co. Demand may increase from 14.02 million tons in 2009, Eric Zhang, an analyst at the Shanghai-based commodities research and forecasting company, said in a phone interview.

Immediate-delivery metal's discount to the three-month price, the so-called contango, widened to $26 a ton from $25 in the previous session. It reached $22 on May 14, the lowest since July. A wider gap signals increased availability of metal.

On the futures market, one party accounts for more than 40 percent of aluminum short positions, or bets on lower prices, expiring in June, LME data from May 13 showed. The biggest bet on a price gain expiring in May accounted for over 40 percent.

--With assistance by James G. Neuger and Stephanie Bodoni in Brussels. Editors: Dan Weeks, John Deane.

[abc125] 17/5/2010 17:26

Hi c21

I've been holding scop since feb having bought a bit early. But nicely in profit now. I shall hold for the long term, since I expect another bear market may be not too far away.

[contrarian2investor] 17/5/2010 16:27

Hi all,

Copper hits $295 lb.

Come on SCOP followers lets be hearing you.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 11/5/2010 13:41

Hi all,

If you look at your charts today for Copper you will see that its descent ceased at 12.40pm just below $313. My best guess is that the GS trading desk started buying early. It will be interesting to see whether Copper holds above $315 today. Otherwise we can look forward to sub $310 and potentially another test of $300 this week.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 10/5/2010 18:58

Hello spob,

Where are you hiding?
What have you been doing/trading since you last post?

c2i

[dnfa1975] 08/5/2010 11:44

is this traded in the us?

[dnfa1975] 07/5/2010 11:53

copper spot price tanking

[contrarian2investor] 07/5/2010 11:23

Hi all,

Copper finding massive resistance at $300 lb.

Copper Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Since January in London
May 07, 2010, 5:54 AM EDT

Bloomberg By Anna Stablum



May 7 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell in London, heading for the biggest weekly drop since January, on concern Greece's debt crisis may affect other nations. Nickel was on course for its worst one-week performance since October 2008.

The Group of Seven plans to hold a conference call today to discuss the crisis, according to Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan. That signals finance chiefs from the most-developed nations may see escalating risks from Greece to the global economic recovery. Concern about the crisis helped U.S. equities to tumble the most in a year yesterday.

"The key concern is if the problems in Greece are going to spread," said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London, adding that the world rebound is under threat. "If you have a problem in Greece, that can impact European banks, which hold Greek bonds. Therefore, you get this knock-on effect."

Copper for delivery in three months fell $75, or 1.1 percent, to $6,873 a metric ton at 10:12 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The contract has dropped 7.5 percent this week, the most since the week ended Jan. 29. Futures for July delivery slipped 0.1 percent to $3.114 a pound on the Comex in New York, falling for a fifth day.

Prices slid even as the U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's strength, fell for the first day this week. A weaker dollar makes metals priced in the currency cheaper in terms of other monies. The index is still up 3.6 percent this week after two straight weekly advances.

Greek Bailout

The euro has lost 11 percent against the dollar this year on concern a 110 billion-euro ($142 billion) bailout for Greece is too little to calm markets and keep the crisis from spreading to other countries. Europe consumes 20 percent of global copper output and 15 percent to 25 percent of aluminum, zinc, nickel and lead production, according to Barclays Capital.

The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday tumbled as much as 9.2 percent, or 998.50 points, before rebounding to close 3.2 percent lower. The intraday decline was the biggest percentage loss during a session since 1987 and largest point drop ever.

"The panic has been overblown," Standard Chartered's Smith said. "I don't think it is taking into account that things are generally improving and most likely this will all blow over."

Reports this week showed that U.S. factory orders unexpectedly rose in March and sales climbed the most since November 2007, while the number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits last week dropped to the lowest level in a month. Personal spending climbed the most in five months in March as incomes increased for the first time this year.

U.S. Employment

Nickel for three-month delivery on the LME dropped 0.3 percent to $21,975 a ton. Yesterday the contract touched $20,450, the lowest level since Feb. 26. The metal, mainly used in stainless steel, has tumbled 16 percent this week.

"In the medium term, fundamentals do not look very positive, as there is potential of a large supply response," Standard Chartered's Smith said.

Inventories of copper tracked by the LME fell for a ninth day today, slipping 0.4 percent to 490,875 tons, the lowest level since Dec. 29. Stockpiles dropped in March and April. Bookings to remove metal from warehouses slid for an eighth day, declining 7.6 percent to 18,050 tons.

Copper stockpiles in Shanghai fell 8,301 tons to 181,140 tons this week, the bourse said on its website today.

Aluminum fell 0.3 percent to $2,096 a ton and lead declined 0.7 percent to $1,987 a ton. Zinc slid 1.5 percent to $2,083 a ton and tin dropped 0.9 percent to $17,539 a ton.

--With assistance from Timothy R. Homan and Shobhana Chandra in Washington, Mayumi Otsuma and Kyoko Shimodoi in Tokyo, and Darren Boey in Hong Kong. Editors: Dan Weeks, Stuart Wallace.

[tommyttrades] 05/5/2010 15:10

Similar scenario where I am using SCOP to hedge a large position in EMED whilst awaiting regulatory licences.

Actually added further,earlier today..Alas,I am NOT one of the £1m plus trades.

[contrarian2investor] 05/5/2010 14:39

Hi all,

So far we have had LOTS of tades including 6 purchases at £1m plus. With the $ index soaring this means that Copper could test $300 lb today &/or during Asian trading overnight.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 05/5/2010 13:07

Hi all,

Next support @ $310 lb followed by $300 lb.
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Copper May Decline in London on Stronger Dollar, Debt Concern
May 05, 2010, 5:55 AM EDT

By Anna Stablum

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Copper may fall in London on a stronger dollar and on speculation that investors might avoid commodities because of concern about countries' ability to control debts.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's strength, rose for a third day. The euro has slid 9.4 percent against the dollar this year on concern that efforts to contain the fiscal crisis in Greece, which is being bailed out by the European Union and International Monetary Fund, may fail to safeguard Europe's economic recovery.

"Our concern is that global bond markets will remain unconvinced that indebted nations will make sufficient strides to stabilize their debt," UBS AG analysts led by Olivia Ker in London said in a report today. "These concerns will rise in the face of any cyclical slowdown in the second half, and they raise the potential for increased risk aversion affecting the commodities and mining sector over the coming months."

Copper for delivery in three months slipped 50 cents to $7,025 a metric ton at 10:42 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The contract fell as much as 0.6 percent to $6,980, the lowest intraday price since Feb. 25. Futures for July delivery gained 0.2 percent to $3.1855 a pound on the Comex in New York.

Prices will average $3.44 a pound ($7,584 a ton) this year, 7 percent less than its prior forecast, UBS said.

'Contagion Effects'

The dollar index rose as much as 0.4 percent, heading for a third weekly increase in a row. Gains by the currency make dollar-priced metals more expensive in terms of other monies.

Officials reached agreement during the weekend on a 110 billion-euro ($146 billion) aid package for Greece. The country's crisis threatens "grave contagion effects" in the euro zone, Axel Weber, a European Central Bank council member, said today in a statement before German lawmakers in Berlin.

Copper also has been dragged down in recent weeks by concern that demand from China, the world's biggest consumer, may wilt as the government moves to control economic growth. Along with uncertainty about Europe's debt crisis, that will dampen metals demand in 2010's second half, UBS's Ker said.

"China looks to have finished its seasonal restocking early, we expect weak commodity imports for April and May to surprise the market, and demand momentum will fade further over the summer," she said.

LME copper declined 4.6 percent in April after two monthly gains in a row.

Stockpiles Shrink

Inventories of metal tracked by the LME fell for a seventh day today, slipping 0.7 percent to 493,275 tons, the lowest level since Dec. 29. Stockpiles dropped in March and April. Bookings to remove metal from warehouses slid for a sixth day, declining 12 percent to 21,150 tons.

"The developed world is now going through its most powerful restocking event since 1984," Ker said. "We expect restocking momentum to roll over in the third quarter, and we are forecasting negative sequential metals demand growth in the fourth quarter."

Nickel for three-month delivery on the LME slid after yesterday falling 7.2 percent, the most since Jan. 12, 2009. Lead and zinc today reached the lowest intraday prices since February.

Nickel fell 5.3 percent to $23,350 a ton and lead dropped 1.2 percent to $2,035 a ton. Zinc declined 1 percent to $2,125 a ton, aluminum fell 1.2 percent to $2,138 a ton and tin slipped 1.1 percent to $17,650 a ton.

--With assistance from Rebecca Keenan in Melbourne, Elisabeth Behrmann in Sydney and Glenys Sim in Singapore. Editors: Dan Weeks, John Deane.

c2i

[gb904150] 04/5/2010 19:23

I'm using SCOP to somewhat hedge my position in AXM, a mining company who have patented a copper leaching process that major(s) are interested in acquiring.

The higher the copper price, the richer the majors, the more they can pay for AXM or the tech....and vice versa.