Wt Copper 1x S Discussion Threads

[contrarian2investor] 04/5/2010 15:54

tommyttrades,

You are most welcome. I just pleased for myself and fellow holders that SCOP is finally heading in the right direction.

I take it therefore that you are already in profit?

It will be interesting to see how the Asian markets deal with today's fall in Copper. I would expect further falls overnight if support fails at $3.20 lb.

c2i

edit Some heavy buying today, including some for nearly £2m. The smart money are adding significantly to their previous holdings.

Time/Date Price Volume Trade value Type
15:57:23 39.02 500..... .........19,510.00 AT
15:46:11 38.95 50,000..... 1,947,500.00 AT
15:44:12 38.96 600............. 23,376.00 AT
15:35:26 39.02 49,000.....1,911,980.00 AT
15:35:25 39.00 1,000.......... 39,000.00 AT

[tommyttrades] 04/5/2010 15:32

Thanks for all the contributions c2i...

I have been buying here for the last cpl of weeks.

[contrarian2investor] 04/5/2010 12:34

Hi all,

COMMODITIES MAY 4, 2010.China Slowdown Pounds Copper



c2i

[contrarian2investor] 04/5/2010 12:32

Hi all,

Bloomberg

Copper Falls to Nine-Week Low as Chinese Manufacturing Slows
May 04, 2010, 5:28 AM EDT

By Anna Stablum

May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Copper fell to a nine-week low in London on concern about the outlook for demand after manufacturing in China, the world's largest user, expanded at a slower pace last month.

A purchasing managers' index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics fell to a six-month low of 55.4. The drop indicated that government efforts to prevent China's economy from overheating may be starting to bite.

"The second half of the year is going to be less upbeat on prices than the first half," said Michael Jansen, an analyst at JPMorgan Securities Ltd. in London. "China is going to slow from very high numbers."

Copper for delivery in three months fell $195, or 2.6 percent, to $7,235 a metric ton at 9:49 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The contract slid as far as $7,233.50, the lowest intraday price since Feb. 26. Futures for July delivery lost 0.3 percent to $3.284 a pound on the Comex in New York.

Copper producers BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group paced declines in the U.K. benchmark FTSE 100 Index after Australia unveiled a plan to impose a 40 percent tax on resource companies' profits. The shares didn't trade yesterday, when U.K. financial markets including the LME and the London Stock Exchange were closed for a national holiday.

Lending Boom

Concern about a potential weakening of Chinese demand contributed to LME copper's 4.6 percent decline in March after two monthly gains in a row. The country's economy expanded 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in almost three years, and property prices rose by a record in March after an unprecedented boom in lending.

China's policy makers two days ago ordered banks to hold more of their assets as reserves for the third time this year. They have also sought to rein in the nation's property market. Construction uses a quarter of all the copper produced, according to the Copper Development Association.

"I don't think China Inc. will fall off a cliff," JP Morgan's Jansen said. "It is just that property has been a vehicle for wealth creation over the past five to 10 years."

BHP, the world's biggest mining company, dropped as much as 4.1 percent, and Rio Tinto fell as much as 5.2 percent. Industry expansion and acquisitions plans may stall because of the plan to increase taxes on mining companies whose profits have surged A$80 billion ($74 billion) in the past decade.

LME Stockpiles

"These proposed taxes reduce the very cash flows that are reinvested in maintaining or expanding existing Australian mines and in developing new operations," Mick Davis, chief executive officer of copper producer Xstrata Plc, said today in a statement.

Inventories of metal tracked by the LME fell for a sixth day, slipping 0.5 percent to 496,975 tons, the lowest level since Dec. 30. Bookings to remove metal from warehouses slid for a fifth day, dropping 8.9 percent to 24,075 tons.

Copper stockpiles monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose for a fourth week to the highest since at least 2003, data from the exchange showed on April 30.

"We think prices will soften, peaking in the second quarter and gradually easing," said David Wilson, director of metals research at Societe Generale SA. Nickel, two-thirds of which is used in stainless steel, has gained 41 percent this year, the most among the six main metals traded on the LME.

Global output of nickel will jump 6.8 percent this year, the most since 2000, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Still, worldwide demand will exceed production by 17,500 tons, according to the median estimate of 14 analysts in the Bloomberg survey between April 26 and April 30.

Aluminum fell 2 percent to $2,211 a ton and tin slipped 0.1 percent to $18,230 a ton. Lead dropped 2.7 percent to $2,171 a ton and zinc declined 2.1 percent to $2,236 a ton.

--With assistance from Rebecca Keenan in Melbourne, Elisabeth Behrmann in Sydney and Glenys Sim in Singapore. Editors: Dan Weeks, Stuart Wallace.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 28/4/2010 11:06

abc125,

Nice to hear from you, I appreciate the company. The "clever money" as you call it have been buying for some time, they are no more astute than you or I.

I bought 50% of my SCOP when copper prices first went above US$ 340 lb and then added further tranches when it went above US$ 360 lb. So now I await the Chinese speculators running for cover as Copper heads towards US$ 300 lb. Which should send SCOP back above 41. I am currently sitting on 1.5% profit on what is a very large tranche of SCOP, so I am hoping that my patience will be further rewarded.

c2i

[abc125] 28/4/2010 00:29

trust the clever money to buy in one day b4 the markets tanked.

[contrarian2investor] 27/4/2010 16:39

Hi all,

I have just looked on the LSE website and the last 5 purchases of SCOP up to 27-Apr-2010 16:18:33 totalled over £2,076,000.

Time/Date Price.. Volume.. Trade.. value Type
15:33:33 35.69 ...500 ...17,845.00 AT
15:10:32 35.87 ..20,000.. 717,400.00 AT
14:47:51 35.90 ..1,250...44,875.00 AT
14:16:18 36.01 ...991 ...35,685.91 AT
14:16:18 36.01 .35,009. 1,260,674.09 AT

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 22/4/2010 15:50

Hi all,

I have just looked on the LSE website and the last 5 purchases of SCOP up to 14.23 hrs yesterday total over £500,000. Now that is reassuring.

Date .....Price..... Volume.... Trade.... value Type
12:44:23 35.79..... 500 .......17,895.00 AT
10:34:34 35.59 ....4,000....... 142,360.00 AT
14:39:51 21-Apr-10 35.60.. 800.. 28,480.00 AT
14:39:38 21-Apr-10 35.59.. 9,000.. 320,310.00 AT
14:23:45 21-Apr-10 35.70.. 1,000.. 35,700.00 AT


c2i

[contrarian2investor] 21/4/2010 08:52

Hi all,

Bloomberg article

China Copper Imports Rise for Second Month in March (Update1)
April 21, 2010, 3:28 AM EDT




c2i

[contrarian2investor] 07/4/2010 09:15

abc125,

Yes Coppper has to turn at some point, but IMO it is unlikely until the DOW commences its 5-10% reversal. Thanks for the link, because credit curbs will aslo have a huge impact, when they arrive in earnest.
-----------------------------

Hi all,

Here are two articles of interest:


Renewed fund buys could propel copper prices higher
By Josephine MasonPublished: Apr 6 2010 6:17PM
Fresh fund buying could propel copper prices higher again this week after the red metal touched $8,010 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday, traders and analysts said.

While prices dropped off toward the end of the trading day in London and on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, market participants predict there is enough support for another push this week.

Given the low liquidity levels, a rise above Tuesday's intraday high of $8,010 could be relatively easy, traders said.


---------------------------

April 7, 2010

Copper breaches $8,000 barrier but hot metal prices may soon cool



c2i

[abc125] 02/4/2010 00:33

Hi C2i

I'm still holding these as well. Copper price has got to turn down at some point.

[contrarian2investor] 31/3/2010 20:25

spob,

I am still holding my very large tranche of SCOP and willing to hold until copper corrects.

In the mean-time I have been trading in & out of my spreadbets on copper.

I opened another short this afternoon @$356.35. So we will have to see how that pans out. Copper is only 10% below its all-time high (spreadbet wise that would be above $390). IMO if/or when that is breached all bets are off.

c2i

[spob] 31/3/2010 19:03

No position at the moment

was stopped out on my last trade

[contrarian2investor] 31/3/2010 17:50

spob,

Great find.
A fantastic article and great additional comments.

What is your view of copper's current trend?

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 19/3/2010 10:01

Hi all,

As we near 1000 visitors to this thread. I wish to encourage all those that have not yet posted a comment/view/idea or article to do so. As it will increase our readership and expand our knowledge of the copper space.

Thanking you in advance.

c2i

[contrarian2investor] 17/3/2010 10:12

Hi all,

Please feel free to add comments/views/ideas following your visit to the thread.

Copper Advances as Dollar Declines, Boosting Investment Demand
March 17, 2010, 4:10 AM EDT



c2i