Woodside Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nk104] 27/2/2023 13:31

Results are out:

Financial headlines

· NPAT of $6,498 million, up 228%
· Underlying NPAT of $5,230 million, up 223%
· Operating revenue of $16,817 million, up 142%
· Operating cash flow of $8,811 million, up 132%
· Free cash flow of $6,546 million
· Annual sales volume 168.9 MMboe
· Realised price of $98.4 per boe
· Unit production cost of $8.1 per boe
· Cash on hand of $6,189 million
· Liquidity at year-end of $10,239 million
· Net debt at year-end of $571 million and gearing of 1.6%
· Determined a fully-franked final dividend of US 144 cps, bringing the full-year dividend to US 253 cps

[nk104] 26/1/2023 11:42

AUD2.86 equals a dividend of £1.64 at an exchange rate of 1:1.74

That's still a 7.7% dividend yield at £21.40

[kiwi2007] 26/1/2023 00:48

Higher-Than-Expected Fourth-Quarter Hub Sales Support Revenue; No Change to AUD 43 FVE

We maintain our AUD 43.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside. The global top 10 independent hydrocarbon producer reported a 7% increase in fourth-quarter 2022 production to a record 51.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe. This was ahead of our 49.3 mmboe expectations and translates to record full-year output of 157.7 mmboe, coming in ahead of 153 mmboe-157 mmboe guidance. Exceptional plant reliability and favourable operating conditions featured. But we read no long-term implication from the outperformance. Woodside has maintained 2023 production guidance at 180 mmboe-190 mmboe, and we hold to the high end.

Fourth-quarter revenue fell 12% to USD 5.2 billion due to lower realised pricing. But this too was well ahead of our USD 4.7 billion expectations, with Woodside selling a higher-than-anticipated 29% of final quarter LNG volumes into gas hub indexes. The fourth-quarter JKM price came in at USD 38.60 per million Btu, or mmBtu, well ahead of the implied benchmark lagged contract LNG price of USD 13.65 per mmBtu. Overall price achievement came in at USD 98 per boe, down slightly on the third quarter's USD 102 per boe.

Despite fourth-quarter production and pricing beating our expectations, our 2022 EPS forecast is marginally lower at AUD 4.93. Higher-than-expected final period exploration write-downs are the driver. Woodside expensed USD 242 million in the fourth quarter, up 30% from the third quarter and against just USD 37 million for the entire first half.

Earnings are expected to be considerably softer in 2023, with hub gas prices including JKM materially lower than 2022. We use futures curves for near-term forecasts, with our midcycle forecast of USD 8.50 per mmBtu kicking in from mid-2024. JKM LNG futures for 2023 have declined around 40% to an annual average USD 20.75 per mmBtu versus USD 35.30 per mmBtu at time of last writing. This results in our 2023 EPS forecast being lowered 18% to AUD 3.58 and DPS down commensurately to AUD 2.86.

ASX closed today (Thursday).

MorningStar

[nk104] 25/1/2023 15:26

Fourth quarter report out

[kiwi2007] 29/12/2022 09:14

Natural gas price down 10.85% to US$4.71 per MMBtu. WDS down 4.5% on the ASX.

[kiwi2007] 02/11/2022 22:27

Looks like the Australian Labour government are going to impose some sort of windfall tax on energy co. profits.

[kiwi2007] 20/10/2022 20:09

Despite the favourable metrics, we lower our 2022 and 2023 EPS forecasts by 5% and 6% to AUD 4.98 and AUD 4.39, respectively. A softening in the futures curve for JKM (Asia LNG) is chiefly the cause. JKM averaged USD 47 per mmBtu in the third quarter and hit a peak above USD 70 per mmBtu. But futures have recently retreated to an average near USD 35 per mmBtu for 2023. Woodside sold 24% of third-quarter produced LNG at prices linked to hubs like JKM. Hub price volatility associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to continue to result in a rollercoaster for earnings, albeit from exceptionally high levels. Our AUD 4.98 2022 Woodside EPS forecast is nevertheless 620% above mid-pandemic 2020 levels.

Woodside has increased 2022 production guidance to 153-157 mmboe from 145-153 mmboe prior. We hold at a 155 mmboe estimate—we'd already assumed that all stops would be pulled to maximise output for a ravenous market.

[podgyted] 19/10/2022 23:04

If you annualise the Q3 revenue you get $23,500m compared with a Stockopedia forecast of $15,769 for 2022 and $17,354 for 2023.

But no doubt it'll fall.

Oz market yet to open - we'll see what tomorrow brings.

[podgyted] 19/10/2022 22:48

Q3 looks good to me - but who knows.



Lets see what this insane market makes of it.

[kiwi2007] 11/10/2022 03:47

From MorningStar..

Market Underestimates Earnings Resilience Coming via Growth Projects and Domestic Gas Stability.

ecommendation impact (last updated: 10/10/2022)
--

Event analysis
Market Underestimates Earnings Resilience Coming via Growth Projects and Domestic Gas Stability.

Woodside, Santos, and Beach Energy have all benefited from rising oil and gas prices. However, despite share price appreciation, we think value still exists. And if energy prices remain elevated for longer than expected, value may be even greater. That's possible given the energy crisis in Europe. Of the three Australia-based oil and gas producers we cover, Woodside has the greatest exposure to global prices and has benefited the most from international events. For Woodside, only about 20% of production is attributable to domestic gas, where prices are steadier. Beach by contrast has about 60% of production serving the domestic gas market, while Santos sits between those two at about 40%. Domestic gas has a number of positives, with capital intensity lower than for export gas, and pricing under term contracts with consumer price index escalators. But lower margins and shorter field lives mean Beach is potentially more exposed to operating and capital cost inflation with less of the commensurate export pricing upside that Santos and especially Woodside enjoy.

Santos trades at a near-40% discount to our fair value estimate, the market underpricing for Barossa gas and new oil project growth. Realised prices are below those for Woodside, but margins are comparable. Santos has longer field life and stronger production growth than peers and a still comfortable balance sheet. Returns were spoiled by cost overruns last decade. But new investments under the watch of CEO Kevin Gallagher have generated attractive returns.

Woodside shares trade at a circa 25% discount to our fair value estimate, insufficient credit being given for Scarborough/Pluto T2. Strong realised prices reflect a favourable product mix and comparatively higher spot exposure. Returns on invested capital are tempered by liquid natural gas capital expenditures, including for Scarborough/Pluto T2. But returns should improve upon T2's start up in 2026.

DPS 22 - A$383.3 EPS 528
DPS 23 - A$271.8 EPS 464
Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates.

[gateside] 08/9/2022 07:29

Ex dividend this morning for 109 US cents - approx 95p

[loganair] 05/9/2022 16:02

OPEC and allied oil-producing countries, including Russia, on Monday agreed to cut their supplies to the global economy by 100,000 barrels per day in order to bolster sliding prices.

Oil prices soared on the OPEC+ news, extending earlier gains. International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 3.9% to $96.63 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures jumped 3.6% to $90 a barrel.

[gateside] 05/9/2022 13:48

(Alliance News) - Uniper SE and Woodside Energy Group Ltd on Monday said they signed an agreement to supply up to 800,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas per year to Europe.

German energy company Uniper has signed an agreement with Australian energy firm Woodside, which will see Woodside supply LNG to Europe from January 2023 up to 2039. The firms emphasise that the deal will supply Germany, which has no LNG ports. In July, the country announced it plans to finish building a floating LNG terminal by the end of 2022.

[kiwi2007] 31/8/2022 00:43

Recommendation impact (last updated: 30/08/2022) MorningStar
--

Event analysis
Woodside's First-Half 2022 Shines With Better Still to Come

We make no change to our AUD 43.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside. The global top-10 independent hydrocarbon producer reported a better-than-expected 414% increase in underlying first-half 2022 net profit after tax to USD 1.82 billion, 13% ahead our USD 1.62 billion forecast. Woodside also paid its largest interim dividend since 2014, up 271% to AUD 1.52 per share, a shade below our AUD 1.54 forecast, equivalent to a healthy annualised 8.5% fully franked yield at the current share price.

However, we read no implication for our midcycle estimates. Profit outperformance against our expectation reflects a lower-than-expected interest rate and lower net debt balances on which that rate was calculated. Lower net debt levels reflect strong cash conversion, cash balances transferred from BHP Petroleum, and net asset sale proceeds. The interest rate was 1% versus 2.8% in the PCP, while Woodside received a completion payment of USD 1.08 billion for the BHP Petroleum merger and an additional capital contribution from Global Infrastructure Partners for Pluto Train 2.

Despite this, our 2022 EPS forecast drops slightly by 5% to AUD 5.33 after we increase operating cost expectations given inflationary conditions in the industry currently. Woodside guided for 2022 production of 145-153 mmboe and we're at the extreme upper bound, confident all stops will be pulled out to maximise production for a ravenous market. Our 2023 EPS forecast rises 9% to AUD 5.42 given rises in Brent crude and Japan Korea Marker LNG futures since our last research report. The JKM recently hit an eye-watering USD 70/million Btu, a far cry from sub-USD 2.00/mmBtu lows during 2020's pandemic nadir.

Our 2022 DPS forecast decreases 4% to AUD 4.00, but our 2023 forecast increases 9% to AUD 4.33, mirroring EPS moves. These equate to fully franked yields of 11.2% and 12.1% respectively at the current share price. But much will depend on the trajectory of energy prices, which will likely be volatile.

[nk104] 30/8/2022 10:12

Payment date 6 October.

[kiwi2007] 30/8/2022 03:33

Only one full month of the full merged company in this half year.
The fact that it's rather more of an LNG producer then an oiler will be a real bonus over the next few years.

[podgyted] 29/8/2022 23:50

Looks good.

Interim Dividend of 109c - about 4.4%.

"The profit for the six months ended June 30, beat estimate
of around $1.49 billion, according to Visible Alpha." (Actual $1.82 billion.)

Will probably fall in this market - we'll see in the morning.

[nk104] 25/8/2022 09:55

Looking forward to the results. Hopefully Woodside is an oil company that isn't frightened of paying dividends to its owners.

[kiwi2007] 23/8/2022 21:04

SEGMENT REPORTING RESTATEMENT AND OTHER ITEMS

PERTH, AUSTRALIA / ACCESSWIRE / August 23, 2022 / Woodside's half-year 2022 results are scheduled for release on 30 August 2022.

The results will include the first financial statements and reserves and resources update issued for the company following completion of the merger with BHP's petroleum business (BHPP). Further context on changes to Woodside's reporting and other items in the half-year 2022 results is provided below.

Segment reporting restatement

The half-year 2022 financial statements will be represented under four segments to align with Woodside's management and business structure:

· Australia - covers Woodside's operating assets, exploration and development activities in Australia

· International - covers Woodside's operating assets, exploration and development activities outside Australia

· Marketing - includes third-party LNG trading activities, activities related to the sale and purchase of Corpus Christi cargoes and LNG optimisation activities

· Corporate/Other - corporate and all other activities unable to be allocated.

To enable a comparison of prior period performance, table A.1 "Segment revenue and expenses" has been restated using the new segments for the full-year 2021, half-year 2021 and full-year 2020 reporting periods. The restated tables are attached to this announcement and reflect Woodside prior to the merger with BHPP.

Woodside also intends to provide supplementary information by project in its half-yearly release which will include operating revenue; earnings before interest and tax (EBIT); earnings before interest, tax and depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA); depreciation and amortisation expense and production costs.....

more.....

[anhar] 01/8/2022 09:20

Aus "franking" is of no use to UK holders. We are taxed on the cash received as a foreign dividend with no credit for the franked amount, meaning we have to pay tax at our top rate on that cash divi.

This treatment is in contrast to those foreign divis where tax is actually deducted from the payment. In that case we are taxed on the grossed up figure with credit given for the foreign tax deduction, but only up to the person's UK top tax rate.

None of this applies to shares held in ISAs as no dividends there attract any UK tax.

So as you say, the true yield to UK taxpayers is the net cash divi divided by the share price, not the grossed up franked figure.

[kiwi2007] 01/8/2022 04:08

Is the Woodside share price a buy for its 13% dividend yield?

*Dividend expectations

The broker Ord Minnett thinks that at the current Woodside share price, it’s going to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 13.6% in FY22 and then 8.6% in FY23.

Macquarie believes that Woodside could provide a grossed-up dividend yield of 15.3% in FY22 and 8.1% in FY23.

One of the biggest estimates of all comes from Morgan Stanley – it’s predicting that Woodside will pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 18% in FY22 and 16.4% in FY22.

By most accounts, those yields are big.

hxxps://www.fool.com.au/2022/06/24/is-the-woodside-share-price-a-buy-for-its-13-dividend-yield/

*These estimates assume they'll be fully franked and franking is only of value to tax payers in Aus and NZ I believe. Maybe UK and US holders get some other benefit frpm the franlking?
Anyway, to get the actually cash dividend divide by 100 and multiply by 70 for fully franked shares on the ASX or NZX..