Woodside Energy Share Discussion Threads

[kiwi2007] 19/10/2023 03:58

Event analysis
Woodside: Heartening Progress on Development Projects

Our AUD 45 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside stands. The global top 10 independent hydrocarbon producers reported lower-than-expected third-quarter production and price achievement though we read no long-term implication from the fact. Rather we are heartened by reported progress on development projects.

Shenzi North in the United States achieved its first production in September 2023, ahead of the 2024 target, and the Scarborough/Pluto Train 2 LNG project in Western Australia was 46% complete at the end of the period, versus 38% at the end of June 2023. The Sangomar project in Senegal is 90% finished, while the Trion field development plan has been approved by the Mexican regulator. Progress reinforces confidence in our projection for Woodside to increase group production by around 20% to around 225 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2027. Scarborough/Pluto Train 2 is the most important element in that target, adding over 35mmboe, scheduled for first production in 2026.

A strong operating result from Pluto LNG helped Woodside deliver an 8% increase in third-quarter production to 47.8mmboe, following the completion of maintenance activities. While up, this was still about 5% below our expectations, and offset by a 5% decline in average price achievement to USD 60.20 per boe. We consequently reduce our 2023 EPS and DPS forecasts by 11% and 8% to AUD 2.34 and AUD 1.95, respectively. The dividend equates to a handy 5.3% fully franked yield at the current share price. Woodside narrowed 2023 production guidance to 183-188mmboe from 180-190mmboe. Our new target is 186mmboe, down from the high end of prior guidance.

Woodside shares are more than double AUD 17.50 October 2020 lows, but at around AUD 37 remain materially undervalued in 4-star territory. Cost-effective delivery of Scarborough/Pluto T2 is a key catalyst for price appreciation.

[garycook] 28/9/2023 03:27

Up today in Oz 2.6% at 36.50,or converted 1920p.

[gateside] 27/9/2023 14:56

Not sure why WDS is not moving up in line with BP & Shell

[anhar] 07/9/2023 09:21

Sterling value of US80¢ interim divi announced: 62.849601p

[kiwi2007] 23/4/2023 11:26

."...things appear to be tracking well for Woodside. The company hasn't changed 2023 production guidance of 180 million-190 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe, a 20% increase on 2022 including a full period's contribution from the merged BHP Petroleum assets—we remain at a high-end 190mmboe. Woodside says it is making good progress on all major growth projects in Australia and globally. Scarborough/Pluto Train 2 is now 30% complete, and Sangomar is on path for first oil later this year. In the Gulf of Mexico, Trion aims to be FID ready this year and Mad Dog Phase 2 achieved first production in April 2023. We increase our 2023 EPS forecast by 8% to AUD 2.62. However, our 2024 EPS forecast softens to AUD 1.80 from AUD 1.96, capturing a higher PRRT assumption.."..MorningStar

Forward PE of 18+ in 2024 ???

[kiwi2007] 21/4/2023 00:33

FIRST QUARTER REPORT FOR PERIOD ENDED 31 MARCH 2023

[kiwi2007] 20/4/2023 04:30

Down lately folling a pullback in oil prices - There are also concerns that proposed tax changes in Australia could hit Woodside.

According to PERPLEXITY (AI) "There are proposed changes to the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) in Australia, which could affect Woodside, the country's largest independent natural gas producer. Macquarie analysts estimated that these changes could reduce Woodside's valuation by 2% to 5% "

[gateside] 09/4/2023 20:34

Updated Investor Relations Calendar added to header

[kiwi2007] 16/3/2023 20:23

LNG spot price in Asia has been trending lower since mid-December and ended at $13.50 mmBtu in the week to March 10.

This is down 64% from the northern winter peak of $38 per mmBtu reached in the week to Dec. 16, and also 81% below the record high of $70.50, hit in late August.

[smith99] 16/3/2023 17:08

Amazing value here now. One has to wonder in the current market will they actually become even cheaper?

[kiwi2007] 08/3/2023 04:23

Ex-Div on a bad day for ASX energy stocks.

[kiwi2007] 27/2/2023 21:43

MorningStar:

Record 2022 Dividend and No-Moat Woodside Is Well-Positioned for Growth Expenditure

We keep our AUD 44.50 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside. The global top 10 independent hydrocarbon producer reported a 220% increase in underlying 2022 net profit after tax to USD 5.2 billion, slightly ahead of our USD 5.1 billion expectation. It declared a 37% increase in final dividend to USD 1.44, ahead of our USD 1.37 expectation, on a 73% payout. It brings the full year to a record fully franked USD 2.46 (AUD 3.75) on a 74% payout, for a hefty 10.8% yield at the current share price.

We slightly rein in our 2023 EPS and DPS forecasts, by about 4% to AUD 2.42 and AUD 1.94, respectively. Softening Japan Korea Marker, or JKM, (spot Asia LNG) futures are the key detractor. Woodside says it will sell 20%-25% of equity LNG volumes on hub indexes such as JKM in 2023, close to 2022's 23% actual. JKM futures have softened in recent months to back below USD 20 per mmBtu, including an average of USD 16 per mmBtu for the balance of 2023. LNG comprises just over half of Woodside's sales revenue. Hub price volatility associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a rollercoaster for earnings and dividends, and may continue to do so.

Our AUD 1.94 2023 DPS forecast equates to a fully franked yield of 5.3%, back from rarefied 2022 levels, but healthy nonetheless. We assume an 80% payout ratio, at the high end of Woodside's 50%-80% target range. There is the possibility the ordinary payout could be reduced in preference for specials and/or share buybacks, acquisitions notwithstanding.

Woodside hasn't changed 2023 production guidance of 180-190 mmboe, a 20% increase on 2022 including a full period's contribution from the merged BHP Petroleum assets. We sit at a high-end 190 mmboe. Exploration and development expenditure guidance is for USD 6.3 billion-USD 6.9 billion, more than double 2022 levels and around half of which is for Scarborough and Pluto Train 2 (now 25% complete and on track for first production in 2025). We sit at the midpoint of USD 6.6 billion.

2023 Dividend forecast down dramatically from the August forecast.

[nk104] 27/2/2023 13:33

Dividend announcement:

As announced as part of its full year results published today, the Directors of Woodside Energy Group Ltd ("Woodside" or the "Company") have determined a final dividend of US 144 cents per share, bringing the full-year fully franked dividend to US 253 cents per share.

The dividend is expected to be paid on 5 April 2023 to shareholders on the register at 5.00pm AWST on 9 March 2023.

Woodside dividends are determined and declared in US dollars. However, shareholders will receive their dividend in Australian dollars unless their registered address is in the United Kingdom (in which case they will receive their dividend in British pounds), in the United States of America (in which case they will receive their dividend in US dollars) or in New Zealand (in which case they will receive their dividend in NZ dollars).


Now unless my maths has gone completely to pot, a 144 U.S. cents dividend at an approximate rate of £1:$1.2 means approximately 120p per share!

[nk104] 27/2/2023 13:31

Results are out:

Financial headlines

· NPAT of $6,498 million, up 228%
· Underlying NPAT of $5,230 million, up 223%
· Operating revenue of $16,817 million, up 142%
· Operating cash flow of $8,811 million, up 132%
· Free cash flow of $6,546 million
· Annual sales volume 168.9 MMboe
· Realised price of $98.4 per boe
· Unit production cost of $8.1 per boe
· Cash on hand of $6,189 million
· Liquidity at year-end of $10,239 million
· Net debt at year-end of $571 million and gearing of 1.6%
· Determined a fully-franked final dividend of US 144 cps, bringing the full-year dividend to US 253 cps

[nk104] 26/1/2023 11:42

AUD2.86 equals a dividend of £1.64 at an exchange rate of 1:1.74

That's still a 7.7% dividend yield at £21.40

[kiwi2007] 26/1/2023 00:48

Higher-Than-Expected Fourth-Quarter Hub Sales Support Revenue; No Change to AUD 43 FVE

We maintain our AUD 43.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside. The global top 10 independent hydrocarbon producer reported a 7% increase in fourth-quarter 2022 production to a record 51.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe. This was ahead of our 49.3 mmboe expectations and translates to record full-year output of 157.7 mmboe, coming in ahead of 153 mmboe-157 mmboe guidance. Exceptional plant reliability and favourable operating conditions featured. But we read no long-term implication from the outperformance. Woodside has maintained 2023 production guidance at 180 mmboe-190 mmboe, and we hold to the high end.

Fourth-quarter revenue fell 12% to USD 5.2 billion due to lower realised pricing. But this too was well ahead of our USD 4.7 billion expectations, with Woodside selling a higher-than-anticipated 29% of final quarter LNG volumes into gas hub indexes. The fourth-quarter JKM price came in at USD 38.60 per million Btu, or mmBtu, well ahead of the implied benchmark lagged contract LNG price of USD 13.65 per mmBtu. Overall price achievement came in at USD 98 per boe, down slightly on the third quarter's USD 102 per boe.

Despite fourth-quarter production and pricing beating our expectations, our 2022 EPS forecast is marginally lower at AUD 4.93. Higher-than-expected final period exploration write-downs are the driver. Woodside expensed USD 242 million in the fourth quarter, up 30% from the third quarter and against just USD 37 million for the entire first half.

Earnings are expected to be considerably softer in 2023, with hub gas prices including JKM materially lower than 2022. We use futures curves for near-term forecasts, with our midcycle forecast of USD 8.50 per mmBtu kicking in from mid-2024. JKM LNG futures for 2023 have declined around 40% to an annual average USD 20.75 per mmBtu versus USD 35.30 per mmBtu at time of last writing. This results in our 2023 EPS forecast being lowered 18% to AUD 3.58 and DPS down commensurately to AUD 2.86.

ASX closed today (Thursday).

MorningStar

[nk104] 25/1/2023 15:26

Fourth quarter report out

[kiwi2007] 29/12/2022 09:14

Natural gas price down 10.85% to US$4.71 per MMBtu. WDS down 4.5% on the ASX.

[kiwi2007] 02/11/2022 22:27

Looks like the Australian Labour government are going to impose some sort of windfall tax on energy co. profits.

[kiwi2007] 20/10/2022 21:09

Despite the favourable metrics, we lower our 2022 and 2023 EPS forecasts by 5% and 6% to AUD 4.98 and AUD 4.39, respectively. A softening in the futures curve for JKM (Asia LNG) is chiefly the cause. JKM averaged USD 47 per mmBtu in the third quarter and hit a peak above USD 70 per mmBtu. But futures have recently retreated to an average near USD 35 per mmBtu for 2023. Woodside sold 24% of third-quarter produced LNG at prices linked to hubs like JKM. Hub price volatility associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to continue to result in a rollercoaster for earnings, albeit from exceptionally high levels. Our AUD 4.98 2022 Woodside EPS forecast is nevertheless 620% above mid-pandemic 2020 levels.

Woodside has increased 2022 production guidance to 153-157 mmboe from 145-153 mmboe prior. We hold at a 155 mmboe estimate—we'd already assumed that all stops would be pulled to maximise output for a ravenous market.

[podgyted] 20/10/2022 00:04

If you annualise the Q3 revenue you get $23,500m compared with a Stockopedia forecast of $15,769 for 2022 and $17,354 for 2023.

But no doubt it'll fall.

Oz market yet to open - we'll see what tomorrow brings.