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WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd

22.00 (1.53%)
24 May 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Woodside Energy Group Ltd LSE:WDS London Ordinary Share AU0000224040 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  22.00 1.53% 1,462.00 1,460.00 1,464.00 1,464.00 1,418.00 1,418.00 39,750 16:12:52
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs 13.99B 1.66B 0.8743 32.00 53.13B
Woodside Energy Group Ltd is listed in the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker WDS. The last closing price for Woodside Energy was 1,440p. Over the last year, Woodside Energy shares have traded in a share price range of 1,368.00p to 2,006.00p.

Woodside Energy currently has 1,898,749,771 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Woodside Energy is £53.13 billion. Woodside Energy has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 32.00.

Woodside Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 76 to 96 of 125 messages
Chat Pages: 5  4  3  2  1
Not sure why WDS is not moving up in line with BP & Shell
Sterling value of US80¢ interim divi announced: 62.849601p
."...things appear to be tracking well for Woodside. The company hasn't changed 2023 production guidance of 180 million-190 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe, a 20% increase on 2022 including a full period's contribution from the merged BHP Petroleum assets—we remain at a high-end 190mmboe. Woodside says it is making good progress on all major growth projects in Australia and globally. Scarborough/Pluto Train 2 is now 30% complete, and Sangomar is on path for first oil later this year. In the Gulf of Mexico, Trion aims to be FID ready this year and Mad Dog Phase 2 achieved first production in April 2023. We increase our 2023 EPS forecast by 8% to AUD 2.62. However, our 2024 EPS forecast softens to AUD 1.80 from AUD 1.96, capturing a higher PRRT assumption.."..MorningStar

Forward PE of 18+ in 2024 ???

Down lately folling a pullback in oil prices - There are also concerns that proposed tax changes in Australia could hit Woodside.

According to PERPLEXITY (AI) "There are proposed changes to the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) in Australia, which could affect Woodside, the country's largest independent natural gas producer. Macquarie analysts estimated that these changes could reduce Woodside's valuation by 2% to 5% "

Updated Investor Relations Calendar added to header
LNG spot price in Asia has been trending lower since mid-December and ended at $13.50 mmBtu in the week to March 10.

This is down 64% from the northern winter peak of $38 per mmBtu reached in the week to Dec. 16, and also 81% below the record high of $70.50, hit in late August.

Amazing value here now. One has to wonder in the current market will they actually become even cheaper?
Ex-Div on a bad day for ASX energy stocks.

Record 2022 Dividend and No-Moat Woodside Is Well-Positioned for Growth Expenditure

We keep our AUD 44.50 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside. The global top 10 independent hydrocarbon producer reported a 220% increase in underlying 2022 net profit after tax to USD 5.2 billion, slightly ahead of our USD 5.1 billion expectation. It declared a 37% increase in final dividend to USD 1.44, ahead of our USD 1.37 expectation, on a 73% payout. It brings the full year to a record fully franked USD 2.46 (AUD 3.75) on a 74% payout, for a hefty 10.8% yield at the current share price.

We slightly rein in our 2023 EPS and DPS forecasts, by about 4% to AUD 2.42 and AUD 1.94, respectively. Softening Japan Korea Marker, or JKM, (spot Asia LNG) futures are the key detractor. Woodside says it will sell 20%-25% of equity LNG volumes on hub indexes such as JKM in 2023, close to 2022's 23% actual. JKM futures have softened in recent months to back below USD 20 per mmBtu, including an average of USD 16 per mmBtu for the balance of 2023. LNG comprises just over half of Woodside's sales revenue. Hub price volatility associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a rollercoaster for earnings and dividends, and may continue to do so.

Our AUD 1.94 2023 DPS forecast equates to a fully franked yield of 5.3%, back from rarefied 2022 levels, but healthy nonetheless. We assume an 80% payout ratio, at the high end of Woodside's 50%-80% target range. There is the possibility the ordinary payout could be reduced in preference for specials and/or share buybacks, acquisitions notwithstanding.

Woodside hasn't changed 2023 production guidance of 180-190 mmboe, a 20% increase on 2022 including a full period's contribution from the merged BHP Petroleum assets. We sit at a high-end 190 mmboe. Exploration and development expenditure guidance is for USD 6.3 billion-USD 6.9 billion, more than double 2022 levels and around half of which is for Scarborough and Pluto Train 2 (now 25% complete and on track for first production in 2025). We sit at the midpoint of USD 6.6 billion.

2023 Dividend forecast down dramatically from the August forecast.

Dividend announcement:

As announced as part of its full year results published today, the Directors of Woodside Energy Group Ltd ("Woodside" or the "Company") have determined a final dividend of US 144 cents per share, bringing the full-year fully franked dividend to US 253 cents per share.

The dividend is expected to be paid on 5 April 2023 to shareholders on the register at 5.00pm AWST on 9 March 2023.

Woodside dividends are determined and declared in US dollars. However, shareholders will receive their dividend in Australian dollars unless their registered address is in the United Kingdom (in which case they will receive their dividend in British pounds), in the United States of America (in which case they will receive their dividend in US dollars) or in New Zealand (in which case they will receive their dividend in NZ dollars).

Now unless my maths has gone completely to pot, a 144 U.S. cents dividend at an approximate rate of £1:$1.2 means approximately 120p per share!

Results are out:

Financial headlines

· NPAT of $6,498 million, up 228%
· Underlying NPAT of $5,230 million, up 223%
· Operating revenue of $16,817 million, up 142%
· Operating cash flow of $8,811 million, up 132%
· Free cash flow of $6,546 million
· Annual sales volume 168.9 MMboe
· Realised price of $98.4 per boe
· Unit production cost of $8.1 per boe
· Cash on hand of $6,189 million
· Liquidity at year-end of $10,239 million
· Net debt at year-end of $571 million and gearing of 1.6%
· Determined a fully-franked final dividend of US 144 cps, bringing the full-year dividend to US 253 cps

AUD2.86 equals a dividend of £1.64 at an exchange rate of 1:1.74

That's still a 7.7% dividend yield at £21.40

Higher-Than-Expected Fourth-Quarter Hub Sales Support Revenue; No Change to AUD 43 FVE

We maintain our AUD 43.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside. The global top 10 independent hydrocarbon producer reported a 7% increase in fourth-quarter 2022 production to a record 51.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe. This was ahead of our 49.3 mmboe expectations and translates to record full-year output of 157.7 mmboe, coming in ahead of 153 mmboe-157 mmboe guidance. Exceptional plant reliability and favourable operating conditions featured. But we read no long-term implication from the outperformance. Woodside has maintained 2023 production guidance at 180 mmboe-190 mmboe, and we hold to the high end.

Fourth-quarter revenue fell 12% to USD 5.2 billion due to lower realised pricing. But this too was well ahead of our USD 4.7 billion expectations, with Woodside selling a higher-than-anticipated 29% of final quarter LNG volumes into gas hub indexes. The fourth-quarter JKM price came in at USD 38.60 per million Btu, or mmBtu, well ahead of the implied benchmark lagged contract LNG price of USD 13.65 per mmBtu. Overall price achievement came in at USD 98 per boe, down slightly on the third quarter's USD 102 per boe.

Despite fourth-quarter production and pricing beating our expectations, our 2022 EPS forecast is marginally lower at AUD 4.93. Higher-than-expected final period exploration write-downs are the driver. Woodside expensed USD 242 million in the fourth quarter, up 30% from the third quarter and against just USD 37 million for the entire first half.

Earnings are expected to be considerably softer in 2023, with hub gas prices including JKM materially lower than 2022. We use futures curves for near-term forecasts, with our midcycle forecast of USD 8.50 per mmBtu kicking in from mid-2024. JKM LNG futures for 2023 have declined around 40% to an annual average USD 20.75 per mmBtu versus USD 35.30 per mmBtu at time of last writing. This results in our 2023 EPS forecast being lowered 18% to AUD 3.58 and DPS down commensurately to AUD 2.86.

ASX closed today (Thursday).


Fourth quarter report out
Natural gas price down 10.85% to US$4.71 per MMBtu. WDS down 4.5% on the ASX.
Looks like the Australian Labour government are going to impose some sort of windfall tax on energy co. profits.
Despite the favourable metrics, we lower our 2022 and 2023 EPS forecasts by 5% and 6% to AUD 4.98 and AUD 4.39, respectively. A softening in the futures curve for JKM (Asia LNG) is chiefly the cause. JKM averaged USD 47 per mmBtu in the third quarter and hit a peak above USD 70 per mmBtu. But futures have recently retreated to an average near USD 35 per mmBtu for 2023. Woodside sold 24% of third-quarter produced LNG at prices linked to hubs like JKM. Hub price volatility associated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to continue to result in a rollercoaster for earnings, albeit from exceptionally high levels. Our AUD 4.98 2022 Woodside EPS forecast is nevertheless 620% above mid-pandemic 2020 levels.

Woodside has increased 2022 production guidance to 153-157 mmboe from 145-153 mmboe prior. We hold at a 155 mmboe estimate—we'd already assumed that all stops would be pulled to maximise output for a ravenous market.

If you annualise the Q3 revenue you get $23,500m compared with a Stockopedia forecast of $15,769 for 2022 and $17,354 for 2023.

But no doubt it'll fall.

Oz market yet to open - we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Q3 looks good to me - but who knows.

Lets see what this insane market makes of it.

From MorningStar..

Market Underestimates Earnings Resilience Coming via Growth Projects and Domestic Gas Stability.

ecommendation impact (last updated: 10/10/2022)

Event analysis
Market Underestimates Earnings Resilience Coming via Growth Projects and Domestic Gas Stability.

Woodside, Santos, and Beach Energy have all benefited from rising oil and gas prices. However, despite share price appreciation, we think value still exists. And if energy prices remain elevated for longer than expected, value may be even greater. That's possible given the energy crisis in Europe. Of the three Australia-based oil and gas producers we cover, Woodside has the greatest exposure to global prices and has benefited the most from international events. For Woodside, only about 20% of production is attributable to domestic gas, where prices are steadier. Beach by contrast has about 60% of production serving the domestic gas market, while Santos sits between those two at about 40%. Domestic gas has a number of positives, with capital intensity lower than for export gas, and pricing under term contracts with consumer price index escalators. But lower margins and shorter field lives mean Beach is potentially more exposed to operating and capital cost inflation with less of the commensurate export pricing upside that Santos and especially Woodside enjoy.

Santos trades at a near-40% discount to our fair value estimate, the market underpricing for Barossa gas and new oil project growth. Realised prices are below those for Woodside, but margins are comparable. Santos has longer field life and stronger production growth than peers and a still comfortable balance sheet. Returns were spoiled by cost overruns last decade. But new investments under the watch of CEO Kevin Gallagher have generated attractive returns.

Woodside shares trade at a circa 25% discount to our fair value estimate, insufficient credit being given for Scarborough/Pluto T2. Strong realised prices reflect a favourable product mix and comparatively higher spot exposure. Returns on invested capital are tempered by liquid natural gas capital expenditures, including for Scarborough/Pluto T2. But returns should improve upon T2's start up in 2026.

DPS 22 - A$383.3 EPS 528
DPS 23 - A$271.8 EPS 464
Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates.

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