Woodside Energy Share Discussion Threads

[podgyted] 19/10/2022 23:48

Q3 looks good to me - but who knows.



Lets see what this insane market makes of it.

[kiwi2007] 11/10/2022 04:47

From MorningStar..

Market Underestimates Earnings Resilience Coming via Growth Projects and Domestic Gas Stability.

ecommendation impact (last updated: 10/10/2022)
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Event analysis
Market Underestimates Earnings Resilience Coming via Growth Projects and Domestic Gas Stability.

Woodside, Santos, and Beach Energy have all benefited from rising oil and gas prices. However, despite share price appreciation, we think value still exists. And if energy prices remain elevated for longer than expected, value may be even greater. That's possible given the energy crisis in Europe. Of the three Australia-based oil and gas producers we cover, Woodside has the greatest exposure to global prices and has benefited the most from international events. For Woodside, only about 20% of production is attributable to domestic gas, where prices are steadier. Beach by contrast has about 60% of production serving the domestic gas market, while Santos sits between those two at about 40%. Domestic gas has a number of positives, with capital intensity lower than for export gas, and pricing under term contracts with consumer price index escalators. But lower margins and shorter field lives mean Beach is potentially more exposed to operating and capital cost inflation with less of the commensurate export pricing upside that Santos and especially Woodside enjoy.

Santos trades at a near-40% discount to our fair value estimate, the market underpricing for Barossa gas and new oil project growth. Realised prices are below those for Woodside, but margins are comparable. Santos has longer field life and stronger production growth than peers and a still comfortable balance sheet. Returns were spoiled by cost overruns last decade. But new investments under the watch of CEO Kevin Gallagher have generated attractive returns.

Woodside shares trade at a circa 25% discount to our fair value estimate, insufficient credit being given for Scarborough/Pluto T2. Strong realised prices reflect a favourable product mix and comparatively higher spot exposure. Returns on invested capital are tempered by liquid natural gas capital expenditures, including for Scarborough/Pluto T2. But returns should improve upon T2's start up in 2026.

DPS 22 - A$383.3 EPS 528
DPS 23 - A$271.8 EPS 464
Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates.

[gateside] 08/9/2022 08:29

Ex dividend this morning for 109 US cents - approx 95p

[loganair] 05/9/2022 17:02

OPEC and allied oil-producing countries, including Russia, on Monday agreed to cut their supplies to the global economy by 100,000 barrels per day in order to bolster sliding prices.

Oil prices soared on the OPEC+ news, extending earlier gains. International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 3.9% to $96.63 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures jumped 3.6% to $90 a barrel.

[gateside] 05/9/2022 14:48

(Alliance News) - Uniper SE and Woodside Energy Group Ltd on Monday said they signed an agreement to supply up to 800,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas per year to Europe.

German energy company Uniper has signed an agreement with Australian energy firm Woodside, which will see Woodside supply LNG to Europe from January 2023 up to 2039. The firms emphasise that the deal will supply Germany, which has no LNG ports. In July, the country announced it plans to finish building a floating LNG terminal by the end of 2022.

[kiwi2007] 31/8/2022 01:43

Recommendation impact (last updated: 30/08/2022) MorningStar
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Event analysis
Woodside's First-Half 2022 Shines With Better Still to Come

We make no change to our AUD 43.00 fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside. The global top-10 independent hydrocarbon producer reported a better-than-expected 414% increase in underlying first-half 2022 net profit after tax to USD 1.82 billion, 13% ahead our USD 1.62 billion forecast. Woodside also paid its largest interim dividend since 2014, up 271% to AUD 1.52 per share, a shade below our AUD 1.54 forecast, equivalent to a healthy annualised 8.5% fully franked yield at the current share price.

However, we read no implication for our midcycle estimates. Profit outperformance against our expectation reflects a lower-than-expected interest rate and lower net debt balances on which that rate was calculated. Lower net debt levels reflect strong cash conversion, cash balances transferred from BHP Petroleum, and net asset sale proceeds. The interest rate was 1% versus 2.8% in the PCP, while Woodside received a completion payment of USD 1.08 billion for the BHP Petroleum merger and an additional capital contribution from Global Infrastructure Partners for Pluto Train 2.

Despite this, our 2022 EPS forecast drops slightly by 5% to AUD 5.33 after we increase operating cost expectations given inflationary conditions in the industry currently. Woodside guided for 2022 production of 145-153 mmboe and we're at the extreme upper bound, confident all stops will be pulled out to maximise production for a ravenous market. Our 2023 EPS forecast rises 9% to AUD 5.42 given rises in Brent crude and Japan Korea Marker LNG futures since our last research report. The JKM recently hit an eye-watering USD 70/million Btu, a far cry from sub-USD 2.00/mmBtu lows during 2020's pandemic nadir.

Our 2022 DPS forecast decreases 4% to AUD 4.00, but our 2023 forecast increases 9% to AUD 4.33, mirroring EPS moves. These equate to fully franked yields of 11.2% and 12.1% respectively at the current share price. But much will depend on the trajectory of energy prices, which will likely be volatile.

[nk104] 30/8/2022 11:12

Payment date 6 October.

[kiwi2007] 30/8/2022 04:33

Only one full month of the full merged company in this half year.
The fact that it's rather more of an LNG producer then an oiler will be a real bonus over the next few years.

[podgyted] 30/8/2022 00:50

Looks good.

Interim Dividend of 109c - about 4.4%.

"The profit for the six months ended June 30, beat estimate
of around $1.49 billion, according to Visible Alpha." (Actual $1.82 billion.)

Will probably fall in this market - we'll see in the morning.

[nk104] 25/8/2022 10:55

Looking forward to the results. Hopefully Woodside is an oil company that isn't frightened of paying dividends to its owners.

[kiwi2007] 23/8/2022 22:04

SEGMENT REPORTING RESTATEMENT AND OTHER ITEMS

PERTH, AUSTRALIA / ACCESSWIRE / August 23, 2022 / Woodside's half-year 2022 results are scheduled for release on 30 August 2022.

The results will include the first financial statements and reserves and resources update issued for the company following completion of the merger with BHP's petroleum business (BHPP). Further context on changes to Woodside's reporting and other items in the half-year 2022 results is provided below.

Segment reporting restatement

The half-year 2022 financial statements will be represented under four segments to align with Woodside's management and business structure:

· Australia - covers Woodside's operating assets, exploration and development activities in Australia

· International - covers Woodside's operating assets, exploration and development activities outside Australia

· Marketing - includes third-party LNG trading activities, activities related to the sale and purchase of Corpus Christi cargoes and LNG optimisation activities

· Corporate/Other - corporate and all other activities unable to be allocated.

To enable a comparison of prior period performance, table A.1 "Segment revenue and expenses" has been restated using the new segments for the full-year 2021, half-year 2021 and full-year 2020 reporting periods. The restated tables are attached to this announcement and reflect Woodside prior to the merger with BHPP.

Woodside also intends to provide supplementary information by project in its half-yearly release which will include operating revenue; earnings before interest and tax (EBIT); earnings before interest, tax and depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA); depreciation and amortisation expense and production costs.....

more.....

[anhar] 01/8/2022 10:20

Aus "franking" is of no use to UK holders. We are taxed on the cash received as a foreign dividend with no credit for the franked amount, meaning we have to pay tax at our top rate on that cash divi.

This treatment is in contrast to those foreign divis where tax is actually deducted from the payment. In that case we are taxed on the grossed up figure with credit given for the foreign tax deduction, but only up to the person's UK top tax rate.

None of this applies to shares held in ISAs as no dividends there attract any UK tax.

So as you say, the true yield to UK taxpayers is the net cash divi divided by the share price, not the grossed up franked figure.

[kiwi2007] 01/8/2022 05:08

Is the Woodside share price a buy for its 13% dividend yield?

*Dividend expectations

The broker Ord Minnett thinks that at the current Woodside share price, it’s going to pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 13.6% in FY22 and then 8.6% in FY23.

Macquarie believes that Woodside could provide a grossed-up dividend yield of 15.3% in FY22 and 8.1% in FY23.

One of the biggest estimates of all comes from Morgan Stanley – it’s predicting that Woodside will pay a grossed-up dividend yield of 18% in FY22 and 16.4% in FY22.

By most accounts, those yields are big.

hxxps://www.fool.com.au/2022/06/24/is-the-woodside-share-price-a-buy-for-its-13-dividend-yield/

*These estimates assume they'll be fully franked and franking is only of value to tax payers in Aus and NZ I believe. Maybe UK and US holders get some other benefit frpm the franlking?
Anyway, to get the actually cash dividend divide by 100 and multiply by 70 for fully franked shares on the ASX or NZX..

[kiwi2007] 25/7/2022 03:47

No-Moat Woodside's Second-Quarter 2022 Sizzles. We Increase our FVE to AUD 43.

We increase our fair value estimate for no-moat Woodside by 8% to AUD 43. Key is a sharp decline in the AUD/USD exchange rate to 0.69, versus circa 0.72 levels at the time of our last note. But a very strong second-quarter 2022 operating performance also contributes.

The now global top-10 independent hydrocarbon producer reported a 60% increase in second-quarter production to 33.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, or mmboe. This was a strong result considering only one month's contribution from the newly merged BHP Petroleum assets. On a like-for-like basis versus the first quarter of 2022, Pluto production increased 32% courtesy of the Interconnector (see below) and Enfield Area production increased 63% bouncing back after a period of maintenance. Wheatstone was a small detraction given Woodside's minority 13% equity position, production down 35% during a turnaround.

Similarly on a like-for-like basis, exclusively former BHP Petroleum asset performance included a 57% production increase from Bass Strait, and a 3% increase from northern hemisphere assets. An offshore Bass Strait fuel gas pipeline was redirected in June 2022 to increase production capacity enabling Woodside to supply additional gas into the eastern Australian domestic gas market.

Also impressive, average pricing on a like-for-like basis increased materially. Pluto price achievement rose 20% and the condensate price jumped 17%. Accelerated Pluto gas transported through the Pluto-Karratha Gas Plant Interconnector resulted in additional LNG production and sales of uncontracted cargoes into the high-priced LNG market.

We increase our 2022 and 2023 EPS forecasts by 2% and 6% to AUD 5.29 and AUD 4.98. The stronger 2023 rise factors stronger futures for Brent crude and the Japan Korea Marker. We exclude as exceptional items from 2022 EPS AUD 200 million noncash derecognition of provision for Corpus Christi and AUD 420 million in BHP Petroleum merger costs, totalling around AUD 0.60 per share pretax.

1 GBP = 1.73682 AUD (Was just over $2 to the GBP only 2 years ago)

Forecast yield 13.7% (2022) and 12.6% (2023) fully franked for the lucky Aussies.

MorningStar...

[kiwi2007] 27/6/2022 03:53

Good news and a bump on the ASX today.


Friday, 24 June 2022
BUMI APPEAL DISMISSED
Woodside and Armada Balnaves Pte Ltd (Bumi) have been engaged in the Western Australian Supreme Court proceedings brought by Bumi (Armada Balnaves Pte Ltd v Woodside Julimar Pty Ltd CIV/1408/2016) with respect to Woodside’s termination in March 2016 of the services agreement for the Armada Claire FPSO.
The Supreme Court trial was held in February – March 2019. The Supreme Court found in favour of Woodside in January 2020 and dismissed Bumi’s claim.
Bumi subsequently appealed the Supreme Court’s decision to the Western Australian Court of Appeal (CACV/31/2020), and the appeal was heard in July 2021.
In a judgment issued today, the Court of Appeal has found in favour of Woodside and dismissed Bumi’s appeal

[gateside] 17/6/2022 08:06

Can't see oil prices falling much any time soonhTTps://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Is-27-Million-Bpd-Below-Oil-Production-Target.html

[pherrom] 16/6/2022 11:17

blueliner - I am also with HSBC ID. I had the same letter but messaged them with the fact that WDS were trading on LSE.

Their reply: "I apologise for the confusion, we have been told the information we received towards the end of May is now null and void.

We are awaiting a further update from BHP as to what stock we are
due to receive and if it is going to indeed listed on the LSE, as
you have mentioned."

And I sold my in specie shares through them on 8th June.

I am not surprised, as I find them incompetent, but it would be expensive to transfer out at £15 per holding.

[blueliner] 16/6/2022 09:09

I started yesterday adding to my 'dividend in specie' holding of WDS in my HL ISA.
This follows confirmation (phone call) yesterday that HSBC InvestDirect cannot deal in the LSE listing even though they show on my account page. Originally HSBC said they couldn't handle it at all and would just forward me the proceeds.

So for the sake of paying £15 to HSBC am transferring the specie stock to HL so at least the entire holding will be with the same broker.

[irenekent] 16/6/2022 08:20

Still awaiting share certs or any form of confirmation of my holding from Computershare.

[nk104] 15/6/2022 15:01

Share your line of thinking but I think there's a difference between the two.

4 per cent of Shell revenue is UK, I think it's about 10 per cent for BP. BP also has the status of a company that can be easily pushed around.

But I'm not putting new money into either.

[gateside] 14/6/2022 16:03

In comments coinciding with listing, Woodside Energy’s chief executive Meg O’Neill warned a recently announced windfall tax will harm government attempts to revive Britain’s oil and gas industry.

“When governments change the rules without a whole lot of consultation or engagement, that’s a bit of a red flag for us,” O’Neill said in an interview in The Times, adding the windfall tax showed Britain was “not a particularly conducive place to invest”.

That is exactly why I am investing more here in WDS and not in BP. & SHEL

[pherrom] 13/6/2022 12:04

So is £16.81 the taxable amount of the in specie dividend?

[garycook] 12/6/2022 14:39

HL,Gave me a value of £3,458.58 on 204 shares.So giving SIV of 1695.38p per WDS share.

[calougra2000] 12/6/2022 08:41

and WDS closed Friday at 1915p. waiting for production and trading updates.