Wetherspoon ( J.d.) Share Discussion Threads

[blusteradjuster] 22/1/2021 09:34

Israel: 7-day average cases peaked 16th Jan and have fallen 10% since.

Could be restrictions, could be vaccine - likely both.

As the non-vaccinated population continues to test positive and the vaccinated not, the efficacy percentage will rise above 33% - and trend towards the 90+% achieved in trials.

[pierre oreilly] 22/1/2021 09:31

Go in hospital with a broken leg. You'll get a covid test. If you die of your broken leg within the next month, you are a covid death.In order to get through drug testing, which is a ten year process, researchers and the regulators were told to look for safety not efficacy (not both, which takes10 years at least). The gov wanted testing done pin nine months, and that's how they did it. They are reasonable sure the approved vaccines are safe enough, but the efficacy is a massive question mark - they are singing it. The give priority was to sick stuff in people's arms asap for political reasons. The +80 age group are simply the phase 3 testing group. If some dropped dead, then easily explained away, so gov risk minimised.It's likely the gov will soon admit that the vaccines aren't working at 95% efficacy after all.

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 09:26

Hospital admissions continue to rise and half the population has had the first jab .We will open in weeks .Really ?

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 09:23

I'm glad you mentioned Israel Israel coronavirus cases soar even as it pushes on with vaccine driveLockdown extended amid estimates B.1.1.7 variant will account for most new infections by March   January 21, 2021 6:27 pm by Mehul Srivastava in Tel Aviv and Clive Cookson in LondonCoronavirus infections in Israel are soaring among those yet to be vaccinated, straining hospitals and forcing the government to extend a strict lockdown even as the country continues its breakneck vaccination drive.Close to 2.3m Israelis - out of an adult population of just over 6m - have received their first shot of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, which provides some protection after 10 days of the jab. Just over 600,000 have received their second jabs, the government said Thursday.But with daily new infections climbing past 10,000 this week and a record 720 deaths so far this month, hospital admissions continue to rise. The B.1.1.7 variant, first detected in the UK during the autumn, is tied to at least 40 per cent of new infections and the government estimates it will account for the vast majority of new infections by March.

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 09:19

You're chances of getting the virus are 70 percent, are you going to rave it up at wetherspoons .

[blusteradjuster] 22/1/2021 09:18

Copied from elsewhere...




Those efficacy percentages will go up week by week.

Obviously they're only 'newsworthy' (to the clickbaiters) early on when acquired-immunity-driven divergence hasn't lifted the efficacy number that much.



Clalit, Israel's largest healthcare provider, covering most of the population, compared the medical records of 200,000 vaccinated over-60s with the same number belonging to unvaccinated people.

For two weeks after the first dose, both groups tested positive for the virus at roughly the same rate.

But then those vaccinated started to show 33% fewer new infections than the others.

"This is very early protection," said Clalit chief innovation officer, Ran Balicher, who is also a public health professor advising the government.

And "already there is a 33% fall".

Infections continued to decline after that.

But there were too few for Prof Balicher to calculate by what percentage.



The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine's Prof Stephen Evans said: "It is not sensible to compare efficacy derived from an observational study of this type, which is subject to many biases, with the efficacy derived from randomised trials [such as those performed to test the vaccine in the first place]."

But the early evidence does follow roughly the same trend seen in Pfizer's clinical trials, which involved tens of thousands of people.

In those trials, the rate of new infections in the vaccinated and control groups also diverged after two weeks.

And that gap kept widening for more than 100 days after the first dose.

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 09:17

You are only protected at 30 percent until the second jab that gives you up to 95 percent .You can come up with all the words you like it won't change it lol .

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 09:15

Read this .hTTps://www.whas11.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine-covid-normal-immunity-virus-pandemic-end/417-f53a0e57-70b7-439a-9404-3dee535afef6

[blusteradjuster] 22/1/2021 09:13

You need to read-up on what 'efficacy' actually means..


"That's 3 months after the first jab that only gives 30 percent protection."

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 09:12

They have also said even after you have the vaccine act as though you have the virus as they are not sure you can transmit it .So they will not stop restrictions until the whole population is vaccinated .There are still many vulnerable in the younger age group .They will open ,but not without restrictions and that must affect profits this year..

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 09:05

Of course cases will come down but there is no absolute proof these vaccines are going to be as effective as predicted after the 12 week lag of the second dose .That's 3 months after the first jab that only gives 30 percent protection. Pubs will have restrictions for months and Imo will not reopen until late April /May at the earliest. Wetherspoons is a longterm buy if you are a buyer as 2021 will be another bad year for the industry. Do you really see pubs going back to normality anytime soon without restrictions. Not a chance and the open borders could easily let another strain of virus in that this vaccine will not work on .Nothing this year is certain.

[johnwise] 22/1/2021 08:59

VIDEO

The COVID Response Has All but Destroyed My Home Town of Rutland

[blusteradjuster] 22/1/2021 08:58

Reported hospital deaths (7-day average) fell yesterday for the first time this year.



The last 7-days hospital admissions fell for the first time this year yesterday too.




The situation will improve from here - similar to after Easter 2020 but even more rapidly because this time we have vaccines.

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 08:30

Sorry 141,000 .Even worse . The total number of NHS hospital beds in England, including general and acute, mental illness, learning disability, maternity and day-only beds, has more than halved over the past 30 years, from around 299,000 in 1987/88 to 141,000 in 2018/9, while the number of patients treated has increased significantly.

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 08:15

Its how many beds the NHS can tolerate .Did you see the guy gasping for air on news night last evening . It was like something out of a horror film .Horrendous.

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 08:12

Who gives a sh1te what barmy tory backbenchers think .

[gozzie2] 22/1/2021 08:11

Lol 7000 to 20000 a year .Theres 7000 a week and that's with restrictions. How many without. The hospitals have 38000 covid patients. How many beds do you think they have .There are only 170000 in the entire country .We shouldn't Tolerate these peddling cr@,p.

[kreature] 22/1/2021 07:55

what Society is willing to tolerate?

Does society have a choice?

[blusteradjuster] 22/1/2021 07:39

Backbench Tory MPs are putting the pressure on the prime minister with the Covid Recovery Group calling for a "gradually unwrapping" of society from early March.

In the end, it is going to come down to what society is willing to tolerate.
UK chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty has spoken about "de-risking" Covid.
His point is that we will reach a situation at which the level of death and illness caused by Covid is at a level society can "tolerate" - just as we tolerate 7,000 to 20,000 people dying from flu every year.

Sociologist Prof Robert Dingwall, who advises the government on the science of human behaviour, believes that point will be reached sooner rather than later.

"I think we will see a pretty rapid lifting of restrictions in the spring and summer.
"There are some sections of the science community that want to pursue an elimination strategy - but once you start seeing fatality levels down at the level of flu I think the public will accept that."

[gozzie2] 21/1/2021 22:30

I'd do this with John wise kreature and guitar lol .hTTps://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1703503427818

[gozzie2] 21/1/2021 22:24

Having said that I'd forgotten there are 75 million knuckledraggers that voted for trump LOL .

[gozzie2] 21/1/2021 22:22

Someone sensible now in the Whitehouse. Watch their cases start to fall in the future. At least they have a chance now with someone intelligent running the show .

[gozzie2] 21/1/2021 22:20

Lol watch his movie .John wise Barmp0t

[guitarhaggis] 21/1/2021 22:19

Gozzie- Of course you did, we all believe you.

Anyhow I'm off, wasted far too much time here already.