Watkin Jones Share Discussion Threads

[hybrasil] 09/12/2022 08:44

TU 4/10/22
“Two market sales that were planned to close in September have been impacted by the recent market volatility and these are now planned to transact in FY 2023”

In my book this is obfuscation “close” in legal speak means completion. They now talk about “plan to transact”

As I read this they don’t have a contract.

The “plan” seems to be in the directors mind.

This is a short with a share price that will end up within 12 months below NAV unless market volatility ends

[goodpick] 08/12/2022 14:42

Hybrasil thats true you are right - investor appetite will slow due to the current interest rate environment. This created underperformance at the last year end update.

Looking forward to further factual updates from the company - until then we have to sit tight.

[hybrasil] 08/12/2022 13:14

Good pick

That’s exactly the point I am trying (and not very well!) to make

Effectively I am saying that sales will not happen at the rate of and the value at they happened in the past.

That’s all

[goodpick] 08/12/2022 13:06

Thank you Jonwig

If you read the progressive reaearch and the investors chronicle and other analysts for example - valuation recommendations are based on future earnings multiples for a business like this.

This has been explained to Hybrasil previously when he tried to compare WJG to REITs but he chose to ignore and has brought back the same debate.

Hybrasil lets have a discussion about the lat Progressive reaearch which is around future cashflowa and earnings…

[jonwig] 08/12/2022 12:57

Look at the current assets, inventories. They are low.
In a traditional housebuilder, work in progress and completed homes are held on the balance sheet under inventories, because it largely builds on spec.
WJG builds to order and earns a profit from assets owned by others.
Hence it shouldn't be valued in the same way as a "normal" housebuilder.

[riverman77] 08/12/2022 12:48

This has been covered before - WJG is a capital light business - it forward sells its property rather than holding on balance sheet, so more akin to an asset manager than a traditional property company. Therefore NAV less relevant.

[zangdook] 08/12/2022 12:25

Hmm...scratches beard...hmm...maybe it is an active business generating profit and not just a pile of dead assets up for sale?

How much above tangible NAV would you value it?

[hybrasil] 08/12/2022 12:17

£157m - £13m (intangibles)= £144m divided by 256 m shares in issue. That equates to an NAV of 56 p. So why in this period of interest rate issues is it trading at 80%+ above Nav.

[1ultimate] 08/12/2022 12:08

I’m loading up here, should be at least £1

Imho DYOR

[zangdook] 08/12/2022 10:59

1. Never believe anything on advfn

2. At 31 March the NAV of the company was £157,574,000. I'm sure you can find out the shares in issue and work it out, but it won't be 28p

3. Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkin_Tudor_Jones ho ho zat you, hybrasil?

[hybrasil] 08/12/2022 10:24

Goodpick
Go back through my 20 years of posting on Advfn. I assure you I have not ever worked for wjg or anyone associated with it.
I do however own student housing. It is unlike this share worth its asset value.

So answer my question. What is the NAV?

[goodpick] 08/12/2022 09:41

Chat forums are great places for disgruntled present or former employees to vent i am sure.

[hybrasil] 08/12/2022 08:52

Advfn has the NAV at 28p. Is that right?

[hybrasil] 05/12/2022 15:38

Melody

It’s not. Where I am (and it’s not London) forward sales have stopped

Swiss Paul. Past tense. Banks loved it

[1ultimate] 05/12/2022 10:47

Nice drop today, I’ve been loading up…… can see this closing back around £1

Imho DYOR

[swiss paul] 04/12/2022 23:19

you forget about the buy to rent market. Banks lov it

[melody9999] 04/12/2022 21:11

I get it Hybrasil. The question is whether this slowdown in sales that you are probably right to predict is already priced into the share price at this level?

[srpactive] 04/12/2022 20:04

Rishi will be flooding the universities with Indian
students.

Very happy to be here.

dyor

[hybrasil] 03/12/2022 10:00

Look I am going on and on and on. I fully accept some will find it annoying.

What I am trying to convey is that in the current interest rate environment forward sales are a thing of the past.

WJG s model is the site acquisition construction and sale.

Edit. Also see today’s news on black stone property fund limiting withdrawals

It’s share price if they have to hold the assets they construct will be decimated.

That’s all!

[bothdavis] 02/12/2022 22:18

If who don't make the investment?

Surely WJG, only have to talk to clients and work out together where they want the buildings or conversions to go?

[hybrasil] 02/12/2022 17:26

And if they don’t make the investment?

[goodpick] 02/12/2022 15:56

Bothdavis - good point - the investment isnt made until a seller is found….
That is the forward sale model
A lot of research is done on location / rents / university quality / competition etc they have a whole team of analysts on it

[bothdavis] 02/12/2022 15:51

Surely, unless you are asked to build a cerain property for a client, all building is speculative? The questions to a builder are: Is it in the right place, will anyone want to buy it at a reasonable price?

[farnesbarnes] 01/12/2022 11:57

It was foreign students coughing up for WJG digs. And the pandemic put the spanner in the works there. UK students rough it.