Wasps 22 Discussion Threads

[dandigirl] 14/1/2021 12:26

cj45: If you don't want any risk, you are looking in the wrong place.
Suggest you consider National Savings or a major U.K. bank.
Making lots of money with no risk is a non-sequitur.

[cj45] 13/1/2021 23:53

Just to be clear; I am just an amateur investor trying to make lots of money with no downside risk. I am not a rugby/wasps fan.

I've read every post on this chat thing and a lot of the information on the wasps website.

My conclusion are as follows;

1)Sports clubs are money pits that go up in value.
2)The independent valuation on the wasps website is absolutely pointless
3)If I buy I would be buying on the hope that either a) someone else is stupid enough to lend money to a loss making rugby club and the bonds get refinanced or b) a stadium that is half empty at the best of times can be liquidated at more than more than £24 million

Right?

[aringadingding] 13/1/2021 16:18

Hi All, I think the kick up in the price in Nov last year was related to an announcement of government funding. Just noting for interest that I only realised quite late! Though it was very much aligned with wider market rally so who knows I guess.

Dandigirl - I agree the Silver Lake thing is an interesting example of private investment in sport. There are two sides to the debate in the instance of rugby (versus e.g. F1): On the one hand you could argue broadcasting revenue could not conceivably increase massively, but on the other hand, each club is like its own mini brand that is well established, people need things to watch on tv, it's better to watch than football (ha) but not as popular right now etc. So I think rugby ticks some great boxes for investors. Anyway just thoughts.

cj45 - In my experiences such valuations are created by taking the asset, looking at what profitability would be at a reasonably high or successful level of occupancy, then applying a multiple e.g. 8x EBITDA. However, I have not seen this level of detail for the valuation of the stadium.

Main thing I wanted to say - Yes you could say I am talking my own book here but this club is absolutely on fire at the moment in so many ways! You can just tell from the individual efforts of people like Barbeary or Odogwu that the team psychology is exactly where it should be. They are so good to watch and deserve their successes. I think the price of this bond is just kind of stuck at the current valuation before the next revelation or first communication from the management team as to what the refinancing/repayment might entail, but I just can't see it being refinanced at a major discount when the club is where it currently is. I make more numerical assessments in prior posts but this is where I currently see it - psychology matters too!

[cc2014] 13/1/2021 09:11

cg - I suggest a good place to start would be to read the 200 posts on here.

[cj45] 13/1/2021 00:02

I am considering buying this bond. But the valuation report on the website and prospectus tells us nothing at all. Where have they got the £50 million valuation from? What is it really worth?

[dandigirl] 12/1/2021 13:48

On the one hand we read that the finances of the top clubs are being decimated. Was it a £1m per month?

On the other it appears that a US entity, Silver Lake, are to take a stake in the All Blacks.

That's a little ray of sunshine to lift the COVID gloom.

[dandigirl] 30/11/2020 22:53

aringadingding: The thinking at the beginning of your main para pretty much accords with mine and probably O_dog's. Using your calculation, we were of the view that the value of the security was greater than the value attributed to it by the then price. Nothing else mattered.

Not sure why the kick-up today. 40,000 t/o shown on LSE site.

Anyway, at today's closing, we are both showing a profit having averaged down.

Which gives us a dilemma: Do we stay or do we go? While tempted to sell, we have decided to stay awhile longer.

[aringadingding] 30/11/2020 15:57

I think we are in definite danger of inferring good news from a high price and bad news from a low price... tempting but not the right way to look at it. Particularly for this security: It's a bond; It's quite close to maturity; It has a lot of retail ownership; It is too small cap for professional money managers to be very interested. That's a lot of reasons for it to be volatile.

However(!)...

The bottom line for this security for me, without getting into probability weightings of outcomes, little tree diagrams etc, is this: I think it can be refinanced at 75p at least. That is 75% of £35m or £26m. This assumes that DR, or other Directors, have kept the business afloat with cash between now and then (as I say before, we strongly suspect DR has some significant net worth due to the cash taken out at the launch if nothing else). That cash could be directors' loans or equity, it doesn't really matter than much. So can you imagine how many private debt funds or institutional lenders would be interested in looking at the refinancing of Wasps rugby club in 2022, with circa £50m of security? I can tell you it is a lot. Look at how many England players there are there - it's just a massive appeal to be involved in something like that. If you run a big fund and have made loads of money, and are a man, there is a pretty good chance you like to watch rugby at the weekend. I'm saying I think it stacks up on the fundamentals AND will be of appeal to multiple parties.

So - congratulations those who bought in in recent months.

[fastcat99] 30/11/2020 12:03

Big move today - just wonder if it is sustainable - and when the Company will make a statement or publish its now significantly overdue accounts. The 65% gain over the last month is so far pure speculation

[ozzie_dog] 30/11/2020 11:36

Wow! I didn't have to wait long.

[ozzie_dog] 28/11/2020 10:16

Thanks, but actually rather than calculating my weighted average, I simply read from the HL page, and it turns out that it was/is not correctly stated, it is actually 62.2p (not 59.1p). But obviously I am happy enough to be higher than the offer price, considering where it was just a couple of weeks ago.

[dandigirl] 26/11/2020 19:31

Tonight's closing prices from the LSE:

Bid/Offer - 60.50/66.50

Having averaged down, our losses have reduced significantly.

Ozzie_dog: Looks like you are back in the black! Well down!

[emmarg] 21/11/2020 12:03

Received mine yesterday....better late than never !

[ozzie_dog] 21/11/2020 07:27

@dandigirl, I agree with you. I too asked my HL if everything was OK, and although I was aware that someone below had said that they had been paid on their platform, I do not know them, and (absolutely no offence intended at all) for all I knew they could have just been trying to wind up fellow forum members. Although I wasn’t particularly bothered about the interest itself, it was more about, are Wasps (although intending to pay it) struggling with liquidity, and therefore in an even worse position that I had thought. But despite that, the £90 interest that I didn’t receive for the extra 3 days that it took to receive (over 2 working days which I think is acceptable) would be better in my pocket, than either HL’s and/or Wasps, but as I implied that was merely a distant secondary consideration of no real consequence to me.

[dandigirl] 20/11/2020 22:52

So as to be clear, both should be held to account. Settlement was due last Friday. Funds should have been remitted by Wasps in good time. The earliest that payment might have been received, it appears, is Tuesday. From then, it could have been down to AJBell's admin. That said, AJB credited today a dividend due today. The obligor clearly paid in good time for AJB to credit on time.

fasrcat: agree but there should not be any delays - they have had 6 months to prepare, after all - and as above both appear to have to answer but the initial delay was down to Wasps.

13579..: far too simplistic. There is more more to consider that just selling now or waiting until 5/22. You appear to be of the view that holders are going to receive 100p in the £ at maturity? Right? IMV we aren't. We are going to have to take a write down - the only questions are how much and when? With that in mind and as above having averaged down, we think we will hang around for a while longer.

Price to buy tonight is now up to 58. To sell 53.5. Do I expect the price to continue to rise - no.

Interesting times. :)

[135791113] 20/11/2020 18:42

@Fastcat - my thinking exactly. Once one person gets paid the rest will, it's really not an issue.

@Dandigirl - If you think Wasps are in a perilous financial situation surely the best thing to do is sell your holding? You are holding a coupon with a redemption value of £100 to be repaid in a few years time, and you seem worried about the interest payment of a few percent.

[a0002577] 20/11/2020 17:44

AJ Bell aka You Invest - have just credited my two accounts with the payment.

[fastcat99] 20/11/2020 17:42

dandigirl - the coupon was credited to direct holdings at Equiniti on Tuesday, and on several other platforms on Wednesday; that is, more or less exactly the same delay as on all previous occasions. If you want to gun for "unprofessional behaviour", I would look at your service provider, not the original payer.

With regard to your anxiety - once one Bondholder's coupon is paid, everyone else's is assured - you shouldn't have given this a moment's thought once you saw Goldmachine posting early on Tuesday morning.

[dandigirl] 20/11/2020 17:11

Excuse me but the due date was the 13th. Today is the 20th! Wasps have had months to prepare for payment which should have been received by platforms last Friday if there was an intention to settle in a timely manner. It is the norm to receive payments on due date, not more than a day late. Given Wasps precarious financial condition, I was not comfortable that it was going to be paid. Indeed, the lateness suggests Wasps have been scrabbling around to accumulate sufficient funds. They are unprofessional and their behaviour should not be condoned.

[135791113] 20/11/2020 12:07

It'll all be automated anyway, when they get the money from Wasps it will just get processed and paid out.

I refuse to believe that any person has to be involved for each of the hundreds of thousands of different investments which all pay out income, dividends etc.

I also don't understand why everyone is so impatient. Wasps have said they'll pay it. If in 10 days time it's not there then fair enough, but chasing when it's one day later than a different platform is wasting everyone's time.

[fastcat99] 20/11/2020 11:40

The idea that HL actually 'chased Wasps Finance', or indeed that different platform-operators received payment at radically different times, just beggars belief. They will all say anything that comes into their head to cover up poor backoffice procedures.

[tarrier76] 20/11/2020 11:40

Received in my HL ISA

[ozzie_dog] 20/11/2020 10:51

HL just emailed me to say that the Wasps bond interest will be credited to my account todat

[aringadingding] 20/11/2020 10:24

I too am in the 'waiting for aj bell' boat. I think there may have been a delay relating to the fact that on the div record date we were technically holding 'provisional consent' shares (bonds) not actual shares (bonds). However in fact I spoke to them a few days ago and was assured that I was still entitled to the interest receipt despite this technicality (which is what I would expect!). I'm sure it will come through in the next few days.

[tarrier76] 20/11/2020 09:57

Just spoken to HL - they say they haven’t received payment yet but will chase Wasps Finance and give me a call back later.