Wasps 22 Discussion Threads

[135791113] 19/11/2020 12:47

Not showing yet in my HL account, but sure it will do at some point.

Don't really see the point of ringing them now. Maybe in 10 days or so if it's still not there.

[dandigirl] 19/11/2020 10:52

Hi. No response and still no interest.

[emmarg] 19/11/2020 08:42

hi dandigirl, did A J Bell, say when it would be credited and what was the issue ?. i am also waiting for my payment

[dandigirl] 19/11/2020 07:57

Still not credited by A J Bell as of this a.m.

[dandigirl] 18/11/2020 14:20

Have chased A J Bell this a.m.

[fastcat99] 18/11/2020 12:39

Yes- Redmayne

[dandigirl] 17/11/2020 10:34

goldmachine: thanks - suggests payments remitted by WASPS but awaiting posting to our dealing accounts by our providers.

[goldmachine] 17/11/2020 08:19

Have received payment into my Eqi account this morning

[fastcat99] 16/11/2020 18:44

Based on timings last May, my calculation is that we should expect payments to appear tomorrow (Tue) afternoon - but would appreciate a post from anyone who gets it first

[jgh03] 16/11/2020 17:36

Not showing in my Hargreaves Lansdown or AJ Bell accounts either ...
I trust it'll be there soon.

[dandigirl] 16/11/2020 17:09

Interest still not showing on our A J Bell accounts.

[aringadingding] 16/11/2020 09:58

@Ozzie_dog... it's still there my friend, press the 'previous' button to take you back to older posts than the most recent. I responded to your points indeed.

[a0002577] 15/11/2020 19:41

I'm really surprised that no-one has said "when dealing with Wasps watch out for the sting in the tail"

I'm also amazed at Dandigirl's "reason" for buying more which was

"The reason for buying more was to average down and hopefully get to an average price more in line with value and again hopefully reduce our losses.".

[aringadingding] 15/11/2020 17:02

@Fastcat99 ok thank you for these comments. Seems like attending that meeting was useful and thank you for passing on the info also.

Re. the warwick uni land stadium... I'm afraid I can't see anything major in that text you pasted. How better (or how else) could CCFC support their negotiating position than with a credible alternative? Obviously Warwick uni would be keen (in the absence of other things to do with the land - they seem to have a fair amount of space on campus, I have been there quite recently).

I confess the details of how a ground share arrangement could be disadvantageous to either/both clubs are not well known to me. I am not a sports mad person. However I think it works in Bristol and if the league organisers are amenable to the scheduling issues, then a bit of rolling grass and painting lines seems ok to me. So from this point we seem to be talking about management teams seeing sense and getting on well with other management teams... Not a given but not impossible. It is a part of the picture but not the whole picture anyway.

I confess also I have not dug into the details of government policy/prl funding either, however some of the text you paste above seems quite encouraging.

Re. future re-financing it is just early stage speculation, from me anyway.

[fastcat99] 14/11/2020 18:16

@aringadingding - thanks for your comments, fully agree this makes a fascinating 'Case Study'

1. Yes, I heard with my own ears the voting figures which I have posted here (and which I have also tried to spread more widely in the professional financial community, as I am always seeking rational, transparent communication and 'good' pricing, so no-one suffers unduly).

2. I think we can forget about the Football Club having longterm interest in the Arena. Coventry Telegraph Nov 12 included the following STATEMENT:
“Coventry City Football Club and the University of Warwick are pleased to provide an update to fans and to our community regarding progress in the development of a new stadium.
“Work between the Football Club, its owners and the University of Warwick has been ongoing since the announcement of the project in July, with a number of meetings both between the organisations and with external parties having taken place and much work going on behind-the-scenes, with the aim of developing a new home for the Sky Blues.
“In the FIRST WEEK of November the leadership of the University of Warwick, and the owners and management of Coventry City Football Club, held a further productive and very positive FORMAL meeting to assess the progress to date of a partnership which would see the University provide agricultural land on the edge of its main campus to the Club for the development of a visionary and environmentally friendly new stadium and centre of sporting excellence.
“Significant progress was made at that meeting, and the EFL have been updated regarding the positive steps that have been made and have welcomed the news.
“Though details have to remain commercially confidential at this stage, we look forward to being able to share information once we are able to, and working with key stakeholders to make this important project a success for everyone.
“The Club and the University do not expect to issue a further statement on the project until early in 2021, when we hope to be able to share further details on this exciting project with Coventry City’s fans and the community.”

3. That said, a temporary post-lockdown arrangement with CCFC could be a real win-win, and with a bit of wishful thinking it might actually be seen as a factor in the Chief Executive's paras 2b) and 2c) of the letter addressed to Bondholders on 6 October (pp14-20 of the Consent Memorandum). This is pure speculation on my part not based on anything I have heard publicly or privately.

4. As for a).future government policy on reopening stadiums; b).government financing; c).PRL funding - who knows?!
From end September everything went awry, due to worsening COVID and progressive clampdowns, giving rise to Boris' prognostic that we should expect closures to continue for 6mths, immediately countered by PRL predicting several clubs would go bust unless supported. Nigel Huddleston's replies to parl questions on 30 September reconfirmed the 5-Stage Plan as being just on 'pause' and contained two 'policy' statements on finance:
"We have asked for detailed financial returns from all major spectator sports to see what support they need. We expect those returns by the end of today, and any club in immediate financial distress should alert its sports governing body." and "those with the broadest shoulders will be expected to carry the greatest burden, which means that where possible we expect them to contribute to the financial support for clubs lower down, particularly in football"
The next big event (end of lockdown) is entirely within control of govt, so surely THIS TIME they will be ready with a comprehensive plan - even ahead of December 2 ??

5. Finally I have been reassured that the Full Accounts for Wasps Finance plc up to June 30 would be communicated as soon as this 'Consultation Period' ended - that is now due, and for me it is acid test of the transparency and good faith which the Board continues to preach.

I don't really understand the speculative posts here on possible terms for future refinancing - whether with regard to substance, rationale or process.
The Board has repeatedly assured Bondholders that their Security has not been diluted by the adopted changes, but clearly the mechanisms giving absolute priority to payment of future coupons are no longer in place.

Collision between Irresistible Force and Immovable Object rarely results in sweet and fair compromise.

[dandigirl] 14/11/2020 12:08

... and now we wait for our interest which should arrive early next week.

Yes, I read that there were on-going discussions with HMG. Not putting a lot of store by that. Oliver Dowden is hampered by what Sunak will provide.

Suspect DR would be asked to stump up too, something that he may not be willing to do, understandably.

Anyway, 77.25 would suit us fine and dandy!

[aringadingding] 13/11/2020 17:01

Fastcat99 thank you for the recent comments - where did you get that by the way? From being dialled in to the call?

I think this is an interesting case study really. Public markets tend to undervalue certain things and for me near dated bonds of distressed companies are one of them.

As for market makers, well if the security is generally trading at a low price, I doubt they would mind overall but I'm not an expert.

DR put in 20m when he bought wasps and took out 10m at the bond launch... it leaves 10m in... not small! Even if he suffers dilution as part of the refinancing (which he may or may not, depending on his cash available situation), if he can retain control and thus benefit other sides of his business holdings consequentially, it's good for him.

As I have said many times I think the highly visible low bond valuation could make CCFC less keen to do a deal to ground share and when that problem goes away the deal becomes more likely.

I agree with the comment above about how the real negotiation will start soon as to the buyout price of the refinancing. One of the reference points in such analysis is certain to be the 'no loss' assessment. I will do this here as I have not thought about it before: If a holder bought at 100 at issue and received 6.5 for 7 years that's 45.5. So if the refinancing is at 100-45.5 (=54.5) the buyers at issue break even. If they bought for less than 100 they are likely to be in profit and well let's just ignore those who bought above. I doubt holders would accept that, given the security available so it's one of those situations where parties need to agree what is reasonable so everybody saves face and gets a fair payout. Meeting in the middle is 77.25p per bond payout. 77.25 is still a lot higher than today though I would expect the bond to trade at below any offered buyout price until it was executed anyway due to execution risk.

All very exciting news for a Friday. OG and D_G I admire your respect for the sunk costs fallacy over and above portfolio diversification :-)

[ozzie_dog] 13/11/2020 10:17

I forgot exactly when, but I think that it might be later this month that the Gov is going to respond to the Premier league's rugby clubs request for financial assistance. That should cast some light on what Wasps need to do to get through this forthcoming season. It doesn't look possible that the vaccine could be administered widely enough for attendances to return this season, hopefully what the Gov does will facilitate the clubs survival to the time when the stadiums can once again have attendances.

[dandigirl] 13/11/2020 08:39

@Ozzie_dog:Absolutement! Still think that Wasps will not survive in its current form. The can has been kicked only a short way down the road. Doubt if the May 21 interest will be paid without another Mr Deep Pockets.

[ozzie_dog] 13/11/2020 07:38

@dandygirl That was my reason to invest again too, my weighted average price is now 59.1 pence, so if it does hit the fan, I'm hoping that I might get back close to or better than that. Plus of course the yield at 40 pence is almost 16.25%. I reckon my average weighted yield over the time invested if held until May 2022 would be about almost 10% I invested at various prices, in date order of 95.2, 72.26, 53.93, 51, 40.185 pence, I did try and buy a few times very near the bottom at about 28 pence, but there was nothing to buy (not in the amounts that I wanted), I even tried just £3k but still there was nothing available to buy. If I had been able to invest at 28 pence my weighted average price would have been under 40 pence.

If they do manage to refinance and pay the full £1, or it goes wrong and they pay at least higher than 59.1 pence) it is a capital gains tax free windfall.

[dandigirl] 13/11/2020 00:29

fastcat99 You are right, I didn’t want this to go through, but it has. I would rather it hadn’t. However, I am of the opinion that the stadium is worth more than the price put on it by the then price. Given that we bought near 100, we were facing a loss of around 60%. The reason for buying more was to average down and hopefully get to an average price more in line with value and again hopefully reduce our losses.

Having got this far it would be astonishing if the next interest payment isn’t made.

Accounts will be rubbish whenever they are published and tell us little, if anything, of the future apart from it being uncertain. N.B. We already know the current business model doesn’t work.

There are not that many market makers here and FWIW, our trades did not show on the LSE website. Undoubtedly others weren’t listed too.