Warpaint London Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave46] 21/9/2023 09:19

This years H1 adjusted eps was 6.5p, up 25% on last year. So simply taking that growth for the year: last year adj eps was 11.2p, +25% gives 14p adj eps for the year. Their broker (the only broker covering them) has 14.4p. I do expect them to beat forecasts but can’t see 20p. It’s always been H2 weighted due to Christmas.

[johnkidd1] 21/9/2023 08:28

EPS last year was 8p.The 46 pc revenue rise in first half almost doubled profits. A good Christmas with second half of Yr weighting should produce approx 12p EPS equaling roughly 20p earnings. 300p share price. Gives approx pe of 15 or 14 if earnings suprise on upside.

[3ootuk] 20/9/2023 20:22

I wonder what the plan is for excess cash? Just a slightly better dividend?
Not really enough for a special dividend yet and no point wasting it buying back shares in a fickle market.
I wonder if there's another beauty business area they could expand in to that compliments make up that would stand alongside their current products? Beauty creams/anti aging stuff could fit and also bridge a generation gap. Anti wrinkle for the oldies, creams for the youngsters?

[melody9999] 20/9/2023 19:19

Shore: Our forecast is predicated upon H2 revenue growth of 16%
Company: Continued positive business momentum post period end, with unaudited Group sales for the eight months to 31 August 2023 of £54.5 million (8 months to 31 August 2022: £37.5 million)

TY 54.5 - 36.7 = 17.8 post period end
LY 37.5 - 25.2 = 12.3

So % growth in H2 to date is 5.5/12.3 ie over 40%

[kiwihope] 20/9/2023 17:54

I think they may beat fy consensus. Company says 2nd half weighting

[big7ime] 20/9/2023 16:32

Nah, 320 more likely next week after tip from ST. Will see who is closer

Personally think you’re mad trying to trade this one, it’s not often you get such a good share, trying to make out its easy to trade is daft, it’s not and you are sure to get caught out and then pay higher to buy back, which going by your past posts you must have on sev occasion

Only 2500 traded at 306, so you’re pretty small time, can’t see much profit in it either, not worth the bother. Just hold for multibagger opp

[disc0dave46] 20/9/2023 16:01

Sorry but don't see how you get a PE of 15x if they achieve FY23e of 14.4p eps (that's their brokers forecast). Unless I'm wrong on todays price that's a PE of 21x.

[qsmeily456] 20/9/2023 15:55

c£3 to 272

QsmeIly456

12 Sep '23 - 23:09 - 1468 of 1502 Edit
0 0 1
And down u go closed and bought in losers 🤣

QsmeIly456

13 Sep '23 - 15:23 - 1471 of 1502 Edit
0 0 1
Top up at these levels 👩‍c92;️👩‍✈ᥧ9;👩‍✈️㊃5;

c274 to c306

Easy 💰👩‍✈️👩‍c92;️🤣

[johnkidd1] 20/9/2023 15:45

As for valuation If profits for second half read through to Christmas period it would confirm my calc of PE for 2023 of 15.

[techtrader5] 20/9/2023 15:43

Super results, now expect good press not least from Inv Chronicle. My tgt looking too low now at 370p but will revise this on full results prob well into 400s maybe higher. As someone said it’s nice and steady. The chart is fab and if the market turns from bear to bull, this share will be in demand.

[johnkidd1] 20/9/2023 15:39

Inflation is not going away anytime soon and int rates will likely remain high for at least 18 months as elevated oil prices feed through to inflation. Higher for longer int rates. Disposable incomes for most will continue to be under pressure. W7L will be a major star going forward with the right products in the places millions shop most. What's not to like with increasing cash, profits and margins. Expect upgrades after Christmas.

[big7ime] 20/9/2023 15:38

Never understand the gibberish from Qsmelly, thought he’d sold at 150 actually, anyhow now watch the share price fly 😝

[disc0dave46] 20/9/2023 15:28

So your fantasy short is what?, 301?

[qsmeily456] 20/9/2023 15:21

Took profits 1st thing....now wearing 🩳🩳. Great med hold but at spike ahead and expecting pull back to the 270 280 range....💰🍾🥂9315;

[disc0dave46] 20/9/2023 15:18

Wish you well, quality business.I get a peg of 0.8x (FY23 eps growth from 11.2p to f/cast 14.4p, +28% eps growth with PE21x). So still value but on a PE it's not IMO. Will admit I'm on the fence and happy to see as it may now decline as folks move from consumer defensives, who knows.

[big7ime] 20/9/2023 14:37

So you sold on results Dave, never wrong to take a profit but I’m here for the long run where it could be a multiple of today’s share price I don’t think it’s at all pricey for that level of growth, assuming it continues. A p/e of 15 for a co that’s not growing then fine but W7L looks to be just getting going. I never look at eps in isolation, more importantly the PEG here is only 0.25 so in effect 4x this price and it wouldn’t look expensive by that metric. Should see some upgrades too. Dyor

[kalai1] 20/9/2023 14:24

Warpaint posted its Interims for the 6 months ended 30th June 2023 this morning. The Group recorded strong growth in sales during the period across all geographic regions, to achieve a record first half, reflecting the focus on growing sales of the Group's branded products. Group sales were up 46% to £36.7 million, gross profit margin increased to 39.1%, adjusted EBITDA was up to £7.9 million and statutory profit was up to £6.3m. The balance sheet remains strong with cash up to £7.1m and no debt. Valuation is a little unhelpful with forward PE ratio up to 19.2x, but the share price remains in a solid uptrend and has strong positive momentum. BUY...

...from WealthOracle

[disc0dave46] 20/9/2023 12:57

johnkidd1
The forecast for this FY is 14.4p, so on a fairly punchy rating at the moment of 21x, quality business but may be ahead of itself IMO. FY25 eps forecasts equates to a rating of 15x at todays price which is fair but am I prepared to pay 2 years up front?…..at the moment I’m reluctant to and will sit on hands for a while as the lipstick effect may decline as folks disposable incomes increase.

[big7ime] 20/9/2023 11:59

Profit up 80% and gaining momentum into this half, yeah I think it’s gonna rise over the next few months. 😋 Steady as she goes the way I like it..

[3ootuk] 20/9/2023 08:43

The real news is how many more stores they are getting in to.

[kiwihope] 20/9/2023 08:36

May rise in next day or so

[ynot68] 20/9/2023 08:26

Exceptional results the norm now with W7, somehow always denied the immediate spike on release, happy to hold this beauty for cap gain and divi, onwards and upwards!

[johndoe23] 20/9/2023 08:25

I totally agree, one of highest conviction holdings

[johnkidd1] 20/9/2023 08:23

Read forward for full year PE of around 15 at today's share price. High sales growth and 10m plus in the bank. Nice divi too. Won't be selling this gem.

[johndoe23] 20/9/2023 08:13

Seller will sell in to any rise