Vpc Specialty Lending In... Share Discussion Threads

[smidge21] 11/3/2024 20:16

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/vsl-ating

[solarno lopez] 11/3/2024 08:38

Are the shares a gift at this level ?

[feddie] 09/3/2024 11:31

Good news that “The Company and its advisers have resolved the technical issues” related to the capital return mechanism. Shareholders should expect that a circular with next steps “will be released in the near future” to be voted in the GM. Hopefully the circular will contain an updated view on dividends and a more defined plan for capital return, even if the latter seldomly works as planned (Based on past similar cases)

[cousinit] 09/3/2024 10:51

Chucko, agree.

One thing did jump out at me though.

72% of NAV in (asset backed?) loans

The top 10 positions total £127m

That suggests a long tail (which I didn't think was the strategy) as 10th position £3m and £40m outside top 10?

[chucko1] 08/3/2024 15:54

Monthly just out. Five pages rather than the normal three, with good detail on top 10 holdings in both equity and asset backed. If only they had thought to do that a while back! Now it is possible to see a little more clearly what is causing capital variations, the source of the previous few months' NAV grief. The commentary is far more detailed, as though someone had asked them to get their fingers out.

Some interesting activity which suggests all is far from lost wrt equity and convert stuff.

[spectoacc] 06/3/2024 13:22

Seems it wants to test the ATL.

[rambutan2] 23/2/2024 22:36

If i remember correctly, they do hold approx 20% in another fund they run, so have every incentive to do a good job you would have thought.

[riskvsreward] 23/2/2024 20:03

It is looking cheap on paper if the management and the NAV can be trusted, but that is the million dollar question. My caution arguing against buying more is that if it is such a bargain why don't I see the insiders like the directors and fund managers piling in?

[chucko1] 23/2/2024 16:53

30 fvcking percent????????

Now I know why you are called "2wild". Mind you, I have been adding apace. I am not sure how much cash they have, as they have been paying off any borrowing as fast as they can. Also, they cite only a 1% cash holding in their asset breakdown.

At prices near 55p, the odds are stacked in your favour, according to my modelling. But 30% is toppy as we can never know everything. And we are not always right.

[2wild] 23/2/2024 15:54

Well, I've been top slicing The rips on my top 10 holdings and reinvesting here Apps prices between 54.6 and 56.2 pence this week. I got a bit carried away and now, have just over 30% of my portfolio in VSL. We know They have tens of millions of pounds in cash. Just waiting to Be returned to shareholders.

[solarno lopez] 22/2/2024 11:21

So are we buyers or sellers ?

[chucko1] 22/2/2024 10:28

Be that as it may, bought a few more. Decision as to whether to cover entirely at current rising level. Whatever the lunacy, as per aforementioned SLF/KKV/SSL, it can pay to look through it all and focus on the financial arithmetic, which is pretty strong.

It would take notable credit losses to derail this entirely, and the way the US economy is holding up implies a lower chance of this, as well as the credit loss history which is impressively slight.

This typo may just be a one-off (and happens elsewhere, occasionally), but helps to form an impression, amongst other events, they really do not give a damn anymore. It's difficult to see a route to them getting any performance benefits - the high water being way, way off, and so the fund is no more than a declining annuity from here. The reputational hit is mild and one they can explain away, I suppose.

[spectoacc] 22/2/2024 08:55

Amendment out 54 minutes after the market opened - surprised there's not even the most cursory of checks.

Edit - interesting how when you have to leave the safety of eg CGT, SGLN, ERNS, CSH2 to take a punt on something like VSL, now much more reluctant you are than if it was just cash.

[chucko1] 22/2/2024 08:32

This is getting SLF-esque!

Who would have thought?

[spectoacc] 22/2/2024 07:33

Perhaps not enough.

[grahamg8] 22/2/2024 07:31

OMG can't even get the RNS right. I take it the XD date is 29 February. How much are these guys being paid?

[tag57] 21/2/2024 00:08

I missed that wilwak. I don’t understand why the gross revenue has halved since 31st July next year. The loan repayments shouldn’t have had such an effect.

[chucko1] 20/2/2024 22:38

It may well not, but in terms of total return, it is a small part of the calculated IRRs that I have shown above.

In any event, to the extent that capital is returned, one would not expect a 2p on that part. (you can always buy more shares with the returned capital at the calculated IRR, which should be higher, anyway). But we still await how capital is actually going to be returned. Whatever, looking at this from a running yield point of view is only on yesterday's menu. It's in wind down - duh. Even if management said that the 2p would be paid until the end of 2024, or later, they also said that some capital would (or did they mean "could") be returned in Q4 2023. Right.

[wilwak] 20/2/2024 20:54

The last monthly factsheet shows the gross revenue declining now that investments and gearing are reducing.

The monthly fees are taking a good chunk of the gross revenue now. I’m not sure that 2p is still covered by income.

[tag57] 20/2/2024 18:07

Now on a 15%+ yield while the current 2p divi lasts

[waterloo01] 20/2/2024 17:15

I also sold some last year but am keeping a reasonable number, for the same reasons you have been discussing. Interesting that Capital one buying Discover financial. Not direct comparison but shows is interest in this end of the market

[chucko1] 20/2/2024 17:01

I only bought what I did having sold on the initial RNS. The later fuller description of what the heck December had been all about suggested they have been being almost ultra-conservative. But without explicit talking about the state of the eCommerce non-pure equity assets, and all comments being tangential at best, it's hard work gaining full confidence.

But hence the low, low price.

Remarkable that there was no explicit comment about how they have been repaying the credit facilities. It is as though they are thumbing their noses to the proletariat, or perhaps have grown to hate their investors. Dunno.

[octopus7] 20/2/2024 16:45

I hold a large amount (as proportion of my portfolio) of VSL and will probably buy more but not before either the next monthly update, or other announcement, in the hope of more clarity first.

[chucko1] 20/2/2024 16:39

I generally do not care who the seller is. Maybe the fellow(s) who bought the stuff I sold up above. Who knows?

Lot of opportunities, yes, and this is another one. GABI is better, but has yet to fully play out - and has better visibility. But this one will quite possibly have decent trading opportunities at some stage and the model awaits further data, and I await further instructions!