Vpc Specialty Lending In... Share Discussion Threads

[rogerrail] 07/2/2024 22:25

Quite clearly with revenue income of 14p per share, the underlying loan book is relatively stable. Even more confounding then the utter stupidity of the actions of the board and its major shareholders ( ie the overpaid leaches acting as institutional fund managers pretending to be cleverer than thou ) at putting into process a wind down leading to the very opposite to the stated aims of narrowing the discount and maximising shareholder value. In effect a wind down of such a specialised asset backed loan book is a fire sale. Even greater stupidity would now be shown in persisting with the strategy now that we understand the impact on NAV of converting unrealised valuations to realisable valuations , which is particularly vexing at a time when similar funds are increasing NAV. Surely if not reversal of the strategy a least find a different approach even if it takes longer.

[nicholasblake] 07/2/2024 18:59

Could the decrease in FI proportion be because FI maturities have been used to pay down debt?

[creme de menthe] 07/2/2024 18:37

Meaningless waffle on their website such as ".
As disclosed throughout the year, the Company’s eCommerce investments saw a decline in unrealised market value of the equity investments
driven primarily by changes in comparable multiples and the terms of potential mergers within the space. The remaining value of the
eCommerce equity positions is £3.9 million at 31 December 2023"

Total bumfluffery.

Lets hope the 83p nav is acheivable by 2026.

[nil of] 07/2/2024 16:58

The board are clueless. Thats not a general statement they genuinely dont know portfolio details and the manager is running rings around them. Needs new board members like Hignosis to correct the manager pushing the board around.

[wilwak] 07/2/2024 16:54

There’s a little more detail in the factsheet on the website

hxxps://vpcspecialtylending.com/

They seem to be saying that have written down assets to realisation values.

I’m really hoping they know what they’re doing and 80p+ will gradually be heading our way.

I still have faith and certainly won’t be selling at the current share price. I’d be adding some more if anything.

[cousinit] 07/2/2024 16:47

Looks like the current high water mark of the original performance fee from Dec '21 is the trigger for any future incentive fees. That's the equivalent of about 98p per share from here vs 83p Dec '23 NAV.

These are also subject to the overall 5% return target on the NAV from 2017 which was c93p. That's probably not dissimilar to the high water mark level once dividends are included.

So any 'angle' for the manager to be cautious on the NAV now could be capital returns via tender. Increase stake, at a chunky discount. Allow others to exit at the first opportunity via tender (or lack of confidence via the market) and if the equity stakes surprise on the upside down the line then they have a disproportionate effect on the rump...

[williamcooper104] 07/2/2024 15:57

Yep that's possible I'm annoyed at why they didn't add some more commentary/explanation with the RNS Only had a small position; and plenty of other cheap places to put it so sold out

[cousinit] 07/2/2024 15:13

Thanks everyone for the comments. Appreciate the candid assessment Chucko.

My initial instinct on seeing this was to wonder whether the manager wind down incentive fees might be baselined from this NAV. Still need to check back on that point. Some other trusts have returned capital via tender offers and took a cautious position on NAV before actually parting with cash. Clearly we don't know the mechanism yet.

Some really wide dispersion going on. Back a couple of months ago ITs were generally being sold off en masse. Several have picked up a bid since but any bad news is being punished (and often also in adjacent names).

[williamcooper104] 07/2/2024 14:28

No shortage at moment of trusts trading at big discounts and liquidating

[redhill9] 07/2/2024 14:22

I'm pleased I'm not the only one struggling with understanding the comparison of monthly commentaries!

While the continued, and sharp, reduction on NAV is very disappointing the discount to 31 December NAV at todays share price is around 30%. Considering there should be a decent amount of dividend declared over the next year or so from continuing revenue income during the liquidation, there would have to be a very significant further reduction in NAV to make me sell at this stage.

[cc2014] 07/2/2024 14:22

I have also noted that the change in debt maturities from one month to the next in the factsheet have been odd.

My feeling is someone isn't paying close attention to the detail in the factsheets (or perhaps they are and are seeking to keep it oblique)

[spectoacc] 07/2/2024 14:01

They've nearly always outperformed and done well, and when they've not done well it's been obvious why.

I don't find this obvious, particularly not the quantum of it.

Haven't sold what is a relatively small holding, but would also note the Opportunity Cost out there.

[cousinit] 07/2/2024 12:54

I appreciate that Chucko and others have modelled this in some depth, but the commentary in the December update and the evolution of the allocations between Nov and Dec don't really seem to hang together (to me). Suggests either some lax terminology between equity (vs common, pref etc) and debt or that there has been some partial debt for equity swap alongside the equity write downs that are described?

[chucko1] 07/2/2024 11:33

I will wait for the full details, but it strikes me that one of the credit asset classes is hurting badly. And those losses within that class might be correlated, but perhaps they will provide decent details. There was a murmur of this a couple of months back. And losses of note on the credit assets is not what was supposed to be on the menu.

[wilwak] 07/2/2024 11:12

VPC are losing credibility with all this. I thought they were well respected.

Big fall in NAV. Small investors suffer again. Little wonder shareholders are nervous.

Let’s hope the worst is now behind us. I’d be happy with 80p capital return and some dividends in the meantime. Hoping.

[solarno lopez] 07/2/2024 11:03

Totally unloved even by Oak Bloke by the looks of things

[tag57] 07/2/2024 09:16

Latest NAV announcement out- 4.8p capital reduction for December. Balance sheet clean up for the end of the year maybe?

[dodger777] 30/1/2024 13:57

The winding down in the best interest of shareholders they said ..all they have done is destroy shareholder value with this nonsense.

[scrwal] 30/1/2024 13:17

It's the uncertainty that's a killer.

[creme de menthe] 30/1/2024 09:35

Presumably sellers do not want to wait until 2027 for the end of return of capital.

[panshanger1] 30/1/2024 08:32

New 52 week low

[waterloo01] 30/1/2024 08:30

Looking weak. Have they put anything out?

[neilyb675] 19/1/2024 11:34

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