Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 12/3/2024 08:22

The final sentence is also interesting - perhaps they're suggesting special dividends here?

"we are focused on enhancing shareholder value and, inter alia, continue to monitor and review our ongoing requirements in terms of the cash required to deliver our strategy"

[jaf111] 12/3/2024 08:22

Indeed it is very good…..although why couldn’t they issue the RNS at the normal 7.00am 🤔

Have topped up….

[rivaldo] 12/3/2024 08:14

The trading update is out - and it's terrific:

- a PBT of £4.75m! Including the £1.1m gain on Indulgence's properties, but it's a great headline....
- Shire Foods made a core PBT of £3.86m (up from £2.78m), up almost 40%....
- the cash pile is up to £23.74m, against a £24.8m m/cap!
- NAV is up to £14.82 per share and £37.5m

Even better:

- investment opportunities are improving
- and re Shire:

"We have been encouraged, however, by the levels of new business opportunities we are seeing in Shire and remain cautiously optimistic for the remainder of the year"

In the year when JL so sadly passed away, congrats to Nick in particular.

[rimau1] 11/3/2024 12:28

I bought in last week for the first time, sucked up the spread on the basis that the marketcap is in cash and shire is essentially free. Downside is the illiquidity and lack of corporate action, a trade sale and company wind-up would add a lot of value here.

[rivaldo] 11/3/2024 11:55

Worth noting that in the last week (assuming that the 1075p trades are buys) there's been 5,652 shares bought and none sold, i.e around £60,000, with no effect on the share price. Which is most unusual for this stock. Presumably there's a seller in the background, but it's also good to see the stock getting bought up.

Hopefully this'll clear the way for after the results - or perhaps a trading update soon given last year's was on 14th March.

[rivaldo] 13/2/2024 07:19

News that Aldi is spending £550m this year expanding its store network, and wants to grow it's current 1,000 stores to 1,500. Which should be good for Shire:

[cockerhoop] 08/1/2024 16:04

I saw Naughty Vegan as moving Shire up the value chain rather than being just a contract manufacturer.

[cockerhoop] 05/1/2024 13:14

Yep, they lost their main listings in Morrisons. The No Chicken Chip Shop Curry Pies were actually pretty good. Disappointing as there could have been some really nice hidden value in the brand. Obviously Indulgence failing meant the Naughty Vegan Cheesecakes also hit the buffers undermining the range.

[zoolook] 05/1/2024 12:31

I think the last time the “Naughty Vegan” brand was mentioned in an RNS was in the 2022 finals: “A number of products manufactured by us won awards in 2021, not least the BBC Good Food Christmas Taste Awards 2021, in which our product won the Best Vegan Main category. Naughty Vegan, the Group's own vegan brand, won The Grocer's Best Vegan Party Food Award for its No Piggy in the Middle sausage rolls. Whilst we continue to develop Naughty Vegan, we have a limited budget for brand development, which means that progress is inevitably slow”

I’m guessing the brand hasn’t taken off enough to warrant a mention. If so this is a shame as a successful brand obviously has value to prospective purchasers over and above that of a pure contract manufacturer. Maybe as a contract manufacturer they lacked the ‘appetite̵7; and brand development expertise to invest nor the customer demand for it to grow fast of its own accord.

[eezymunny] 05/1/2024 08:51

elsa, what you're saying seems like saying "vegan stuff isn't selling well so Tesco is a poor investment". Companies make and sell what's in demand. It changes all the time.

[zangdook] 05/1/2024 08:21

Do you suppose the reduction in demand for vegan food means that vegans are choosing not to eat? Maybe they've gone over to the dark side.

[elsa7878] 05/1/2024 08:12

And if the demand was there would they not be producing as many pies as possible already. You only switch when you have the orders.

Where's that education minister.........

[eezymunny] 05/1/2024 08:00

Exactly Zangdook

Elsa is being simplistic. Products come and go...

[zangdook] 05/1/2024 07:50

Shire make pies and pasties. They don't look vegan to me. If the vegan range doesn't sell they can ramp up the meaty side.

[elsa7878] 02/1/2024 17:29

But vegan ranges have seen large falls in sales.....Are these guys bucking the trend?

[rivaldo] 02/1/2024 15:38

HNY to all here.

Both Aldi and Lidl have today reported their best ever Christmas sales. Which hopefully augurs well for Shire Foods:

[zoolook] 14/12/2023 11:05

Needless to say I’m more than satisfied that Nick Lander is not as work shy as I am.

[cockerhoop] 13/12/2023 17:39

I did chuckle that you (of all people) suggested he's unlikely to want to retire at 57 ;-)

[zoolook] 13/12/2023 15:27

I’ve been doing a bit of speculating too about where we go from here. The company’s future is to all intents and purposes solely in Nick Lander’s hands now. So what are his options and likely alternatives?

My only contact with him once on an investor zoom call. Most of the questions were fielded by Jonathan. The nature of their partnership was that Jonathan was mainly focussed on the deals and Nick was mainly focussed on executing the turnarounds. Although Nick trained as an Accountant he then went on to run Manufacturing businesses compared to his brother who looks to have only held city jobs.

On the zoom call it was obvious that he was very excited by the opportunities at Shire and in particular with the ‘Naughty Vegan’ brand (I got the impression that he is a vegan). He’s only 57 so unlikely to want to retire yet.

Will he seek someone to replace Jonathan? That seems unlikely as he was irreplaceable insofar as they had a unique relationship (“Jonathan was not only my business partner for more than 23 years but also my brother and best friend”). Also I’m not sure how a new Investment Director would add much as Nick AFAIK has always been fully involved with identifying and assessing acquisitions.

The only Board change following Jonathan’s death is the addition of Michael Tzirki as an NED who is the MD of Shire. The Chairman’s comment was: “He has been a trusted colleague within the Group for many years, often supporting the executive directors in considering acquisition targets and I know he will provide useful continuing input as we execute our forward strategy.”Not sure what to read into this appointment other than maybe signalling a stronger intent to chase further acquisitions in the food sector.

On the subject of acquisitions Nick had this to say in September’s interim results
“We have continued to review an encouraging level of investment proposals throughout the period. However, there has been a distinct shortage of potential transactions that we considered to be worthy of potential investment. Such opportunities have not presented themselves, which had been somewhat frustrating for both Jonathan and me. Whilst these things are a matter of judgement, we have invested only when we believed we had a reasonable prospect of delivering an improved, sustainable performance and we will continue to assess opportunities in this context.
I would like to thank shareholders for the support over many years afforded to Jonathan and me and to reassure them that my focus will continue to be on growing the value of our investment in Shire Foods, which I have chaired for more than 12 years. An increasing, cash-generative performance from Shire will be pivotal to enhancing shareholder value in Volvere. Whilst we will continue to seek investment opportunities pursuant to our investing strategy, maximising shareholder returns remains at the forefront of the Board’s strategy”

Volvere has lost its way in terms of fulfilling its stated purpose. The investment strategy is they pick up distressed businesses, turn them around and flip them back into the market for good profit. This hasn’t happened for several years. Shire is still on the books after 12 years of ownership and Volvere is sitting on a mountain of unspent cash because what the market in distressed businesses is offering doesn’t meet their investment criteria. It’s laudable that they had the conviction to stick to their guns but increasingly it looks like a lost cause and a review of their strategy is overdue.

I seem to recall that Buffett wound up an early investment fund because the market wasn’t offering investments that met its value criteria and there’s a strong argument that Volvere should do the same perhaps with Nick buying out Shire as he seems to like it and prospective buyers aren’t falling over themselves.

[zangdook] 06/12/2023 10:06

Do you have an estimate of how much such a distribution might be?

[rivaldo] 05/12/2023 11:36

Buying at 1250p and now 1300p this morning.

Maybe some speculating that Shire will now be sold and VLE wound up with assets being distributed to shareholders. Of course could equally be betting that Shire coninues its excellent and consistent performance in recent years.