Volvere Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 04/11/2021 06:37

Aldi is opening 15 new stores before the end of this year, and 100 new stores over the next two years:

[smithie6] 28/10/2021 10:45

or perhaps some big holder is adding after perhaps seeing that the product range has a number of new products added to it

(very few trades, but they seem to be buys of 1000 shares each time, £13-14k per trade, yesterday & today; someone with deep pockets is very keen, Joe Bloggs with a typical £50k portfolio is not the buyer)

notable % increase in different pie flavours now on offer

:-)

hopefully that can increase the turnover/sales

& also increase the ability/possibility of being stocked by more stores.

[jaf111] 28/10/2021 10:33

Maybe just maybe some long overdue corporate action pending.......
Fingers crossed!

[smithie6] 28/10/2021 10:24

test sell
price of £14 given !

(not taken/executed)

price very strong yesterday & today

[rivaldo] 27/10/2021 08:28

Nice £27,000 buy just now of 2,000 shares at the full 1350p offer price.

[rivaldo] 12/10/2021 06:14

Another signal from the Landers - a meatier one this time in buying back around £32,000 of shares via 2,500 shares at 1260p:

[spob] 07/10/2021 22:09

What is the fee to release a RNS on the LSE ?

Seems a pointless excercise, unless they are buying a decent chunk.

[rivaldo] 07/10/2021 07:00

Indeed - that's why I stated it was a signal rather than being about its materiality/financial significance. Evidently this means the Landers believe that 1260p is a nice base in value terms.

[jaf111] 07/10/2021 06:41

mmmm not sure how significant a 0.00001% purchase is.....the company surely has to either find an acquisition (or two) or commence a proper repurchase programme.

[rivaldo] 07/10/2021 06:20

RNS out. VLE have bought back 1,000 shares at 1260p - this is the first buyback for a year.

Hopefully a signal from the Landers that the share price is now cheap enough again to take advantage of....

[jamessmith23] 21/9/2021 15:30

This is definitely true. But if a company owns instead of leasing then this will change the values of the future cashflow as one of them will have an additional expense of leasing resulting a different present value. The benefits of owning assets such as the factory will come through in a model and shouldn't be added in as extra value unless they are assets not generating any cash flows or reducing expenses relevant to the business e.g. unrelated property. In a theoretical world the discounted present value of future savings of owning a factory vs leasing would be fairly similar to the current value of the factory on the balance sheet.This is all model based and so only as good as the inputs you use plus always only part of the investing story, but I wouldn't be adding factory value to a DCF model.Btw I do believe the business is undervalued but not as simply as adding a DCF model to the current NAV, or a slightly reduced NAV.

[eezymunny] 17/9/2021 18:34

That´s not what I´m suggesting pireric.

What I´m saying is that comparing two otherwise identical companies, one that owns the freehold (with no mortgage) to it´s factory, and one that leases the equivalent building, you shouldn´t come up with the same valuation. If you do, you´re clearly barking mad.

[stemis] 17/9/2021 15:09

Correct, Pireric

[pireric] 17/9/2021 11:21

Since when does anyone put inventory, working capital etc into the EV bridge for a DCF. Only net cash and maybe truly surplus property goes in (e.g. investment property), along with any debt and pension deficits etc.

If you do what youre suggesting its not right because you cannot generate those cash flows without those assets. Only way you suggest makes sense is if you wind the company down at the end of the mid term cash flows and then value the hard assets, but then you are going to end up discounting them heavily over e.g. 5-10 years to get the present value

You may be able to sell the food businesses on a cash free debt free basis, but you cant also take out their PPE and working capital etc.

[eezymunny] 17/9/2021 10:53

The correct way to value stuff is discounted future cash flows + residual value IMO.

So if Shire has a very tangible book (property, cash, receivables, inventory, less liabs) value of 8m quid and you DCF future cash flows at 12m quid, then it´s worth 20m quid.

You wouldn´t value a company at 20m if it had 2.5m pbt and had 100m net cash on the balance sheet. So Shire´s strong balance sheet should very clearly be factored into its valuation IMO.

I reckon Shire might be worth c. 20m but we can all do our own valuations.... Add that to the cash pile and VLE looks significantly too cheap here IMO. As usual it might need a disposal for the market to wake up!

[stemis] 17/9/2021 07:54

You can't seperate future cashflows from the assets that generate them. Nobody is going to pay twice...

[rivaldo] 17/9/2021 07:39

Agreed - that's the point I was making, and is why I posted specifically "the continuing businesses" :o))

[eezymunny] 17/9/2021 07:32

Rivaldo apparently likes to double-count Stemis. Shire/Indulgence obvs need an asset base just to function.

I think what he´s trying to say is that the future cash flows of those businesses are valued around nothing. That would be a sensible comment IMO.

I reckon 15-20 quid is a more sensible valuation here, but these results are so (predictably) dull, hopefully a few bored thickos will allow us to pick some up on the cheap over the next few months....

[stemis] 17/9/2021 07:26

The continuing businesses aren't valued at nothing (or negatively). If you strip out cash, they are valued at at least £10m. Whether that's reasonable for the existing businesses is another matter.

[rivaldo] 17/9/2021 06:24

Good H1 results today, with both Shire and Indulgence improving very nicely year on year.

Net assets (with no goodwill/intangibles) are £36.9m against a £33.2m m/cap, including £23m cash and £9.7m properties and plant.

The continuing businesses are essentially valued at nothing (actually negatively).

Yet with the big H2 seasonality, Shire looks like making between £2.5m-£3m PBT this year, even with a limited impact from the rising costs we all know about.

Indulgence will likely make a small loss this year, but is obviously on the right track now, especially if it can gain "mid-tier" ranges as suggsted today and increases its cheesecake range sales via Shire.

Plus there's more optimism about acquisition opportunities turning up with the end of the givernment support schemes.

[stemis] 16/9/2021 22:45

It's hard to tell because it depends on surveys and people being truthful but I think it's reckoned to be about 600,000 - 1 million.