and the rest |
If no shorts this would easily be plus 300p. |
Match up sites to non-sanctioned customers, eg Viet Nam to US?
Trouble is Trump is such a weathervane that it's hard to keep up with! |
Nat isn't just aware of this shift-he's actively orchestrating it. The U.S. is busy sabotaging its own influence, while China and India are capitalizing on the vacuum, strengthening trade ties and securing long-term economic dominance. This isn't accidental; it's a direct consequence of policies that push allies away. Nat knows exactly what he's doing-reshaping the global order while the West watches its grip loosen. You don't alienate friends without expecting them to find new, more reliable partners. |
Being pragmatic, China and India are the future growth economies and look to be more reliable trading partners than the US. The US is causing a lot of self inflicted damage to itself, you don't treat 'friends' like this, one can end up finding new friends. |
That's right. More than that, he owns Trump as he does the fed...I assure you, that trumps actions have been agreed to by NR!Make of that what you will. |
There have been tariffs before and Volex has exploited its multi-site geographical spread to offer customers something that its competitors could not. No doubt there will be a short-term dislocation (though I suspect Volex has been planning for this for some time) but I reckon VLX will see a similar benefit. |
NR is a trump fan. Would be interesting to see his comments today. VLX has facilities mostly in mexico/china - with some in Poland/vietnam/Indonesia. I don't know how easy it would be to switch manufacturing between sites - and you have shipping costs etc thrown in.
However given that the likes of Tesla manufacture in china/germany as well as the US its not obvious how much of a hit there would be. |
Might be a few years though if Trump has his way! |
This is not going to be a good day. Stay focused on the long-term, this will pass. |
"In a recent webinar, the company mentioned that they benefited last time around but without fully explaining why."
Oh, I'm sure a full explanation has been given. Vlx benefited last time because they were ahead of the game working with their customers and could quickly switch production from China to Vietnam and Indonesia. |
 Small Caps Live 310125:
"Volex (VLX.L) - Trading Update
The organic growth rate of around 10% seems pretty good, although Q3 is only up 2% on Q2. Overall, this is said to be in line:
The Group's underlying operating profit2 expectations for the full year remain unchanged and are in line with market forecasts3. Positive customer interactions underpin confidence in sustaining high single-digit organic growth for the full year, as well as maintaining margins in the target corridor of 9%-10%.
Net debt is $151m after paying deferred consideration and making a small profit from selling their TT Electronics shares. However, there is no mention of the impact of Trump's tariffs, which is perhaps one of the market worries here. In a recent webinar, the company mentioned that they benefited last time around but without fully explaining why. It may be stockpiling by customers ahead of tariffs, but this would be a one-off effect. Overall, it seems harsh that this is down 20% due to the aborted takeover of TT Electronics, when they made a profit on the shares they bought, and are trading in line." |
Yep patience will be rewarded |
Like a wee snake popping out of its burrow |
Time for some shorts to close |
Great to have a major institutional broker like Jeffries covering it and positively. |
*JEFFERIES STARTS VOLEX WITH 'BUY' - PRICE TARGET 350 PENCE |
Shorts still holding this back |
VLX still a big holding of mine. Hoping will do very well in the medium term.
I think the divi needs to be increased over time. I understand that VLX is still growing and now needs to pay down the debt for now.
But the current divi yield might be holding some investors back.
Still looking forward to those shorts closing... |
dougmachin - yes, apologies. So many RNS pages of Form 8.3 announcements to do with the possible takeover that I couldn't see the November 2024 H1 results and went back too far. So basically the 2024 forecast for underlying operating profit hasn't changed since November. |
15 Nov 2024 (for HY 2025) here:
- The Board of Volex considers that the current consensus market expectation for revenue is $1,026.9 million (with a range of $1,019 million to $1,034 million) and for underlying operating profit of $96.8 million (with a range of $95.7 million to $97.6 million).
Then Q3 2025 update gives:
- As at 22 January 2025, the average of company compiled analysts' forecasts for the 52 weeks ending 30 March 2025 for revenue is $1,031.4 million with a range of $1,027.7million to $1,040.0 million, the average for underlying operating profit is $96.7 million, with a range of $95.7 million to $97.6 million. |
Valhamos -
"Great trading update. Market expectations have increased considerably since H1 results on 23 November. Then it was revenue $860m and underlying operating profit $84.1m. Now it's $1031 revenue and $96.7m profit, so if analysts hadn't recently increased expectations then the company would have been issuing an ahead of forecasts statement."
I think that trading update was 23 Nov 2023 (so for FY 2024). |
Should recover to 340p reasonably decent time frame. No negatives as announced, for me trading update was better than I had anticipated |
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