Sp rose c 20% immediately post TU on the 15th and has consolidated at the £6 level over the last 2 weeks. We haven't benefitted from the better than expected CPI number and the prospect of the first interest rate cut next week whereas other HBs have. Much that we've seen a nice 20% bounce from the low. We now need some more good news and that needs to start with a big vote if confidence from the insiders as that will force shorts to consider their positions and hopefully close. The lack of volume inside trade will stall our progress until we see next results at Q1. |
Looks like our R from accounts has impressed the market :(. Lots of words but that pudding better have the right ingredients and prep and cooking spot on. Won't be long before we'll be back in the mid £6s trending north :) |
Planning constraints all being addressed as of today. |
Housing land beside railway stations gets an automatic yes for planning according to chancellor. Go vistry |
10am chancellor announcing positive legislation for builders. |
We're all different and anyone invested in this sector should do well from these levels. A lot of people are underwater with Vistry due to the accountancy saga and that's a bummer. I see it as the biggest riser as a result of this so that's where most of my dough is going. The short position is also an added incentive providing news is positive. Want to see those LARGE insider buys pre closed period, that will put a ticket under this and I'm hoping that they're waiting for higher prices as a credibility play ie not selling high buying low as insiders !! . |
X2- out of all the HB's my preference is TW. I hold plenty here but underwater, no rush to sell as this will come good especially as lots of builders going into administration. 🤞🏻 VTY have the worst behind them. |
HBs have already bounced c 20% this year with added divi play on sone. I believe this sector is a great investment so am steadily adding to Barratts, Persimmon and Vistry. We know the govt want to build more affordable housing but it needs to be commercially viable for the builders. If interest rates drop next week then sentiment will improve and thus will continue to trade north as shorts will be forced to close. The next key news will obviously be FY and Q1 results and this will fly if they're positive. |
RR making a speech about planning tomorrow. I'm expecting VTY to regain investor confidence before end of financial year bwdik🤔 |
To add, I'd have expected the current buy back program to have been suspended if the financial worries were still in play. £6m a month is still a chunk of cash and 30m spend by program end in May is significant. |
 We're currently following the same trading trend as the other HBs. The economic factors are the same for all but VTY is different as it has the opportunity to recovery the value lost from the recent accounting fiasco. It also has the opportunity to benefit from Labour's housing plans, especially its partnerships business. Market is waiting for another proof statement from VTY to confirm that they've definitely sorted the financial irregularities. That could come by way of insider buying, that would be one sign that insiders could give to lift investor confidence. I believe the lack of buying is holding us back and the short positions remain in play. They obviously believe there's more bad news to come. VTY need to continue winning contracts and hopefully the economic factors tip in our favour with the first rate cut on Feb 6th. Doubters will argue that it doing feed through to mortgage rates but the confidence levels will rise regardless. I bought more this morning as I believe we'll see this trending north until MPC meeting and just need to see those large insider buys to give that vote of confidence. Maybe there's other corporate activity in play? Predatory approaches whilst the share price is on its arze but if that was the case you'd see the share price rising. |
* a business survey highlights UK private sector jobs are being cut at their fastest pace since 2009.
That's beyond dire. |
Job losses, slowing economy and interest rates may not be cut as quickly as many hope. |
Ftse is down 70 pts might have something to do with it |
I see the share price has fallen away a little bit this afternoon. I'm not aware of any new news about housebuilders/mortgages etc. Anyone aware of anything? |
Positive article on shares mag today but need to be subscribed to read it. Huge opportunity here but obviously not without risk. Will be interested to see how this trades up to the release of Q1 and FY24 results. |
A lot has changed in that time period !! Vistry was born in 2020 when Bovis acquired Linden Homes, the HB arm of Galliford Try. A £1bn acquisition which was followed with the Countryside merger for £1.2bn merger in 22. Completely different company and a different model from other HBs following the Countryside deal. Current m/cap sub £2bn when recent valuation at share price high was £4.7bn. A decimation of company value as a result of the accountancy issue and imo, grossly overdone. The shorts have a huge position and at some juncture this unwinds but they obviously believe there's more negativity to come. The longer the share price stays at this level, the more likely the chance of a predatory approach but I'm sitting on hands until I see more confirmation of the continued recovery play and the No 1 signal would be some huge insider buys and if that happens, time to load up and quickly !! |
I'm new to this stock - not a holder yet.
Looking at the performance over the last 5 years it peaked in 2020 at around 1400p then fell away to 510 presumably because of covid then climbed to 1300 and fell away to 550p october 2022 then climbed to 1395 August 2024 then fell away to 520p January 2025.
Seems to be a pattern. I'll keep watching for now. Sounds as if it needs new blood at senior management level and better financial management |
The market obviously doesn't believe in the VTY recovery story. Other HBs have continued their trend north since trading updates and better than expected CPI news which has lifted expectations. Our VTY is different and a large % of the rise from the 510 low was as a result of TU and the cessation of profit warnings. Why hasn't this continued its trajectory north ? Market not believing that they're out of the woods yet ? The market sentiment on the sector has improved and most HBs are 10-20% up this year but our VTY is retracing . Is the market looking for those Director buys to signal confidence ? Why wouldn't directors load up at this level ? It's obviously a concern and the lack of commitment could suggest that there's more negativity to come. Buybacks continuing and id've expected to see them pulled at this juncture if anymore skeletons we're likely to be making an appearance.Tempted to add more but prudent approach to sit back and await next signal. |
'The closed period for FTSE companies begins 30 days before the announcement of their financial results. This includes interim and year-end reports, such as quarterly and half-yearly reports.'I thought it was 60 days for FTSE 250 companies so our insiders have plenty of time to load up. Now would be a good a time as any ;) |
tanners
The newsflow has been as expected. The HBs have crashed then traded as posted 2.5-3years ago and still trading with the ranges mentioned at that time.
I went short on HBs last summer.
I also said my target was < 500p, when the share price was significantly higher. They reached c520p last week, so not far off my target.
I sold my VTY on Thurs.
As per assertion will continue to follow the company/sector, economic/political newsflow. |
https://stocks.apple.com/AYBptFlfBSa60_TSYik4H7g |
Cmon Usman, Greg and Tim. Time to load up in style. The market won't mind you selling high and loading up low. We're 20% of the bottom, it's appropriate to fill your boots :) |
LOL Hemo.....a trait I share too, us mere mortals eh!
The other classic I hear repeatedly, is the 'buy the dips' one....which is of course impossible to actually do, unless you're fortunate enough to have a broker who allows retrospective buying! |
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