Well done Sikh, my posting frequency is my business - I read loads of threads and rarely comment, but having been on ADVFN the small matter of c.25 years it never ceases to amuse me how many people are bearish on a stock and then mysteriously buy at the intra day low!
I would estimate about 80% of ADVFN posters have this oft claimed trading skill, so you're a member of a big club. |
Post 2390...due to time scales lot works are rushed...one example how often do you see scaffoldings back up say after 3 years on new build tower blocks... |
I an aware of all the variables affecting HBs but at this juncture VTY is a recovery play that has now jumped 20% in 2 days. Many investors would be overjoyed with that return, especially if Divis were in play too, that's further down the road. Here's a question, 'what would VTY price be today without the accounting scandal' ? It was trading at a PE of c10+ at its high, now at 6 if we take £300m as 2025 number. Investors are obviously believing that they can still trade at the higher P/E as they continue with their partnership strategy. You state they have to rebuild trust but investors have short memories, especially those who are trading this and a 20% demonstrates that with more to come as short positions unwind. I believe it trades in the £6-7 range in Q1, if it gets to the higher end pre next results, that's a 40% return from the bottom. As I say, short memories . |
Careful I've only made one post. I don't hold any shares. I've been considering buying some but the IC report has put me off. Thats it. Think before you post mate. |
you must be caught in a short position car1pet judging from your posts.
It is just as annoying to be caught in a short position when there is a sudden surge in the share price as being long when the price collapse.
You should have closed ahead of results.
Keep griping, we understand. |
IC has reported that Vistry is trying to complete 3 houses per week per site. Standard practice is one completion per site per week.
I bought a Linden house a few years ago and they rushed the completion and it cost them lots of money. We were put up in a nice hotel for 3 weeks and when we moved in we had 6 pages of snags to resolve. They tiled the kitchen in the wrong tiles. The underground pipework had the wrong fall and the entire underground pipework had to be dug up and relaid with the correct fall. General poor quality workmanship through rushing the completion. So beware. |
xclusive
"If we take that as a given, the only fuel available for the bear case would be poor economic conditions. As I see it, the inflationary news was better than expected that will"
Several factors impact HBs, economic conditions is just one of them.
Labour policies are inflatinary, Trump's policies look like inflationary (I say look as his policies haven't been officially confirmed)
As per my assertion, I expect BoE will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. |
EdmondJ
"Be interesting to see if any of the disclosed shorts are trimming."
Citadel increased their short yesterday!
Now 1.22% |
xclusive
"watch this space"
Good luck. I prefer to stick to term trading of HBs
Sold mine in a day. Happy to take a profit and re-visit if/when they fall back to < 500p. |
Tanners
"Sees them go up 12% and then claims to have bought earlier in the day!"
It was my FIRST post of the day (yesterday)!!!! So I informed you as soon as I logged in.
Btw, I sold this afternoon in line with my assertion saying 'soon' and best to trade. Didn't quite get my c650p but I assume you know what 'c' means???
I haven't been online for 3 hrs, so this is my FIRST post informing you I sold my punt this afternoon.
lol
Amazing how you haven't posted for 5 weeks and your 1st post is trolling!!! |
I think the penny is dropping for some |
sikhthetech15 Jan '25 - 13:58 - 2357 of 2383
0 1 0
Lots of BELIEVES and EXPECTS in the rns. Says it all.
I bought a few this morning but intend to sell soon.
Trading HBs.
Sees them go up 12% and then claims to have bought earlier in the day! |
Well as you can see it's hardly moved the share price so I was correct. The numbers, set across the economic backdrop of the last year were certainly not anything that concerned me. Aye compared it against a peak year and it's bad, but that's not what I'm looking for...that'd be good to people who want to buy shares at the top. |
And any short closing would obviously help ! |
 ST,If you're investment strategy was short term eg Q1, where do you think the share price is going ? The biggest risk was the accounting saga and I'm sure that they've done a forensic analysis of the business to ensure that there is no further contagion. Secondly, they'd have put the measures and controls in place to ensure this never happens again. If we take that as a given, the only fuel available for the bear case would be poor economic conditions. As I see it, the inflationary news was better than expected that will probably lead the BOE to cut 0.25pts in Feb and sentiment will pick up. If you have a short term strategy then the likelihood is that the share price trajectory is north. You state that they need to rebuild the trust, they do but in the short term until 24 FY results and Q1 numbers, this will trade north in the absence of more stink bombs but I believe that's very unlikely. It's bottomed out and those buying at the recent lows are fortunate whether strategy is short, medium and long term, mine is all 3. Nothing guaranteed and they could stop buy backs which would send a negative message or no insider buying being another reason to support the bear argument. It's bounced 15% from the low and that's a great return for newbies but as of now, the likelihood is that it continues its trajectory north and those trading it can make a killing. Pays your money, takes your chance :) |
.....lol , watch this space ;) |
xclusive
"sun comes out as Spring approaches"
Then you wake up!! Nice dreams
:-) |
tryingtotrade
"TW numbers won't do any harm to the SP"
TW numbers were not good. How will it help VTY? |
Imjustdandy
"Now talking 4 Interest Rate cuts this year" "That will be good for the housebuilding sector"
There were 2 rate cuts over the past 5months. What happened? |
Take it as an opportunity to snaffle a few more. Any poor news in the sector has a ripple effect but each company has their business model and as we know, Vistry charting a different path. Vistry share price demise from 400m anticipated profit to £250m was the reason we got battered and until that FYD was removed, they couldn't move on. It's created a huge opportunity for some who have been able to enter the game on the cheap, average down etc and the upside is in play if they deliver 25 forecast. Economic factors will play their part and crystal ball needed but the inflation numbers and likely interest rate cut next month will inject some ire confidence and up we go. Add in our lovely Labour plans ! and we could do very nicely. This is a recovery play from an accounting scandal and if the contagion has truly ended , the management structure improved and controls in place, then this will trade north. BOE very likely to cut interest rates, sun comes out as Spring approaches, sentiment lifts and hey presto, we're of again :) |
TW numbers won't do any harm to the SP |
Now talking 4 Interest Rate cuts this yearThat will be good for the housebuilding sector and the economy. This is still cheap based on Peel Hunt forecast of 300m this year. https://news.sky.com/story/inflation-falls-slightly-after-two-months-of-rises-13289215 |
In a nutshell:
Sudden turnaround in expectations on interest rates - going up now coming down in less than a month - hence buy housebuilders and VTY being at the high risk/reward end.
Into which macro scenario VTY finally states things not getting worse even if that was barely three weeks ago. Affirms a sense the 'three profit warnings' are done.
Be interesting to see if any of the disclosed shorts are trimming. JP Morgan Asset Management declared 0.51% only yesterday, lol. |
The rise over the last couple of days is not down to just HB TUs. Market sentiment is playing a big part here. Today also Gaza peace deal and main markets rising.
There's still inflationary pressures from UK govn and Trump policies
Best to trade.
sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<..>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.
Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability. |
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