PSN update far better than I was expecting. Let's hope that ours is too . |
inflation, poor affordability for houses, higher cost of labour, unprofitable projects, interest rates going north, so much for the capital light, partnership approach which in part amplifies the risk.
When you look at post Christmas share trading following the shambles of an update, shorter's have taken 20m against retail buyers, I would not be one to go against that strong negative opinion, just as well there were buybacks otherwise would be far worse, not that bright to be betting against the hedge funds and increase debt.
What business are you investing in now? is it one that can manage 10% margin or not and on what volume, this can easily go sub 1bn, unless there is a big turn around, and clean up the act, but with so many headwinds, that seems unlikely near term, be interesting to read update. |
Last time we touched this level was 3/4/20, almost 5 years ago ! Still can't believe we're back there. Cmon GF, a steady the ship update with a positive forecast, that'll throw the cat in :). Memories will be short if it's a better than expected update. Investors won't be waiting for proof statements from future reporting , they'll be basing their decision making on the 15/1 update. |
fuji99
welcome to socialism |
On top of all of this, Labour's budget has killed any hope of recovery in all other industries too.
This is without taking into account the slaughtering of pensioners, farmers and students.
Labour higher taxes/NI = redundencies + recruitement freezing = less spending = recession = Labour will be kicked out for another 50 years. |
The Government’s competition watchdog is extending its investigation into suspected breaches of competition law by seven major house builders.
The Competition and Markets Authority launched a probe last February after uncovering evidence during a far-reaching study into housing market delivery that indicated some house builders may be sharing commercially sensitive information with their competitors.
The original investigation period finished in December but has now been extended to May 2025 for “further investigation: including additional evidence gathering, and CMA analysis and review.”
The CMA added: “The CMA has not reached a view as to whether there is sufficient evidence of an infringement or infringements of competition law for it to issue a statement of objections to any party under investigation.”;
The firms under investigation are:
Barratt Redrow
Bellway
The Berkeley Group
Bloor Homes Limited
Persimmon
Taylor Wimpey
Vistry |
svend
"it took approximately seven years for Tesco to fully recover from the 2014 accounting scandal."
That's exactly my point. If I remember correctly, Tesco's CEO and other directors resigned when the blackhole was discovered.
Similar at CAKE.
I don't think majority of investors will believe VTY have got over their recent blackhole problems so quickly. It takes years to re-gain trust. |
Silkthetech: Yes, you were spot on with that prediction. I do not expect much to happen before the AGM, when the largest shareholders cast their vote on management progress and proceedings. In comparison, Tesco began to show signs of financial recovery by 2019. The complete resolution of legal and financial repercussions extended into 2021. Consequently, it took approximately seven years for Tesco to fully recover from the 2014 accounting scandal. |
How optimistically have they priced their recent partnership contracts to help win business..?
That's what the market may be questioning. |
As we know, Vistry have charted a different path with their partnership model and it will be interesting to see the prospects for that business with the 25 forecast. The business is there, what are the margins looking like going forward. 1.5 days of trading and no short closing as yet so the Bears obviously believe it's safe to dig in down here. Still may see closing into tomorrows close. |
Several HBs, inc VTY/PSN/TW etc are reporting TUs over next few days.
That should provide some guidance on how they believe the current trading is going and what they believe the outlook is like.
Here, it will take several TUs to be sure there's no other skeletons. Even then, the CEO should have resigned by now so investors can start to move forward.
These are now just above my target of 500p, set a couple of months ago.
sikhthetech - 15 Nov 2024 - 16:38:53
<...>
I might take a punt < 500p on the hope that the CEO does resign and the company starts to re-build confidence. |
A cheap acquisition would be disastrous so hopefully our larger holders are ready to dive in post closed period. The HBs have been battered over last 3 years, only gotta look at the charts !! Vistry was the golden child, bucking the trend with its partnering strategy and would've continued that trend but for the accounting scandal as that's what it is. Can only invest based on facts and if the company misleads the investor base then they pay the price. Currently at 35% of its value from £14 high, that's disastrous but the TU will give us the clarity we need to make decisions, good, bad or indifferent. I still maintain that 24/12 news dump was the last bite of the shoite sandwich and continued buy backs show that the cash position isn't disastrous. I promised I'd sit on hands pre news but I e taken another chunk this am hoping that the bad news is over and outlook is better than many expect. |
PP, the sooner the TU is out the better, unlikely Mr Market will like whatever is reported, bwdik. I'm more concerned that VTY could be taken out by a VC at these levels. Good Luck 🍀 |
Are we expecting more joy on wednesday mornings TU? |
Apologies. My mistake. I was getting confused. Correct the COO Earl Sibley is the one the left. |
That's a new one on me ?? Sibley the COO went November and only C level casualty. He was the former CFO. |
American job numbers have caused US bond yields to spike.
30 year reached 5%.
This will cause ours to spike as we compete for cash in the same market. |
I understood that the CFO left the business on 31st December as a result of these profit warnings? |
Shorts are miles ahead depending on entry point obviously. They can remain in and keep the pressure on or close out pre news next week knowing that they can load back up if it's more bad news. Most important thing for all longs is to have total transparency and no more surprises, 3 is enough !! GF and CFO are still in play and I'd have thought that they'd have fallen on swords if the contagion was company wide. Leadership still in situ, buybacks continuing and I'd have expected changes to both those statements if it's a shoite show. Hoping I'm right and the forecast is stable as a worst case and that the insiders are ready to load up ! |
Meanwhile while eveybody and every business including HB are struggling: |
We are not in a casino Sceptic.
But I would give 80% they will faulter again because they have thrown themselves into a deep hole since the first PW - There is no way out.
However, the housing problem will be sorted out very soon, with or without VTY. |
You make your bet, i will make mine haha |
I must add that any misplaced blunder on 15 Jan. will chop at least another £1.50 off the share price in one single day.
IMO the risk for sharp losses is high.
This is why I always believed the management has "successfully" transformed a gem of a share into a nightmare in the middle of a mine field.
100% assured to have sleepless nights. |
There are so many bargains right nowIts a buyers mkt |
The increase in bond yields increases government debt and my guess is the BoE will not reduce interest rates so house buying will slow down once the stanp duty deadline passes. House builders will be forced to reduce prices to balance their books so Vistry will struggle for longer and the consquence will be lower share price. I'm tempted to buy bt will wait until its well into the 400s |
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