As we know, Vistry have charted a different path with their partnership model and it will be interesting to see the prospects for that business with the 25 forecast. The business is there, what are the margins looking like going forward. 1.5 days of trading and no short closing as yet so the Bears obviously believe it's safe to dig in down here. Still may see closing into tomorrows close. |
Several HBs, inc VTY/PSN/TW etc are reporting TUs over next few days.
That should provide some guidance on how they believe the current trading is going and what they believe the outlook is like.
Here, it will take several TUs to be sure there's no other skeletons. Even then, the CEO should have resigned by now so investors can start to move forward.
These are now just above my target of 500p, set a couple of months ago.
sikhthetech - 15 Nov 2024 - 16:38:53
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I might take a punt < 500p on the hope that the CEO does resign and the company starts to re-build confidence. |
A cheap acquisition would be disastrous so hopefully our larger holders are ready to dive in post closed period. The HBs have been battered over last 3 years, only gotta look at the charts !! Vistry was the golden child, bucking the trend with its partnering strategy and would've continued that trend but for the accounting scandal as that's what it is. Can only invest based on facts and if the company misleads the investor base then they pay the price. Currently at 35% of its value from £14 high, that's disastrous but the TU will give us the clarity we need to make decisions, good, bad or indifferent. I still maintain that 24/12 news dump was the last bite of the shoite sandwich and continued buy backs show that the cash position isn't disastrous. I promised I'd sit on hands pre news but I e taken another chunk this am hoping that the bad news is over and outlook is better than many expect. |
PP, the sooner the TU is out the better, unlikely Mr Market will like whatever is reported, bwdik. I'm more concerned that VTY could be taken out by a VC at these levels. Good Luck 🍀 |
Are we expecting more joy on wednesday mornings TU? |
Apologies. My mistake. I was getting confused. Correct the COO Earl Sibley is the one the left. |
That's a new one on me ?? Sibley the COO went November and only C level casualty. He was the former CFO. |
American job numbers have caused US bond yields to spike.
30 year reached 5%.
This will cause ours to spike as we compete for cash in the same market. |
I understood that the CFO left the business on 31st December as a result of these profit warnings? |
Shorts are miles ahead depending on entry point obviously. They can remain in and keep the pressure on or close out pre news next week knowing that they can load back up if it's more bad news. Most important thing for all longs is to have total transparency and no more surprises, 3 is enough !! GF and CFO are still in play and I'd have thought that they'd have fallen on swords if the contagion was company wide. Leadership still in situ, buybacks continuing and I'd have expected changes to both those statements if it's a shoite show. Hoping I'm right and the forecast is stable as a worst case and that the insiders are ready to load up ! |
Meanwhile while eveybody and every business including HB are struggling: |
We are not in a casino Sceptic.
But I would give 80% they will faulter again because they have thrown themselves into a deep hole since the first PW - There is no way out.
However, the housing problem will be sorted out very soon, with or without VTY. |
You make your bet, i will make mine haha |
I must add that any misplaced blunder on 15 Jan. will chop at least another £1.50 off the share price in one single day.
IMO the risk for sharp losses is high.
This is why I always believed the management has "successfully" transformed a gem of a share into a nightmare in the middle of a mine field.
100% assured to have sleepless nights. |
There are so many bargains right nowIts a buyers mkt |
The increase in bond yields increases government debt and my guess is the BoE will not reduce interest rates so house buying will slow down once the stanp duty deadline passes. House builders will be forced to reduce prices to balance their books so Vistry will struggle for longer and the consquence will be lower share price. I'm tempted to buy bt will wait until its well into the 400s |
The share chart is dire. It may break the support level at 500 p. Looking at the 5 year long term chart, there was support at 500 p in 2021 and 2022. I am afraid that third time is UNLUCKY in 2025. The share price will fall below 500 p. This is karma at its best cynically, as the company buys back its own shares daily at higher prices. The directors have lost at the roulette table. They are meant to be in the building business. Where is the CFO providing wise counsel to the board to take prudent action?
Those were the days when some large companies with mountains of cash, did not know what to do with it so they were buying back shares. A few years later when times were hard they had to raise money in the stock market at very low share price. Have they not learned that "Cash is king"? Just ask Rachel Reeves about higher borrowing cost! |
Joined you @512s for the recovery here, with buybacks, looking oversold imo, GLA |
This is just too low now - taken an initial 5000 at 512 |
We would be crazy to be tempted in today.
Momentum too strong.
Just topped up at 5.129.
Hoping share buybacks are a clue and that £250m profit will hold.
Interest rate problems in the gilt market does not help.
Here and America, house builders being crushed.
A perfect storm.
I think the CEO should stay because he knows this complicated business more than anyone else. He has skin in the game and will be motivated after this humiliation
No time to change to an ignorant newcomer.
As Blair said, you lose the job of Prime Minister just when you are beginning to know how things work.
They love at the start when you are clueless. |
When we read statements like these from Greggs (today) what someone wanting to buy a house would think ?
Labour has killed any hope for anything, even for buying a pie or a sandwich, let alone a house.
Increasing abuptly taxes everywhere is equivalent to the FED or the BoE increasing interest rates not, in increaments of 0.25/0.5% but in 5 - 10%'s.
We see the results of Labour all over the spectrum of businesses.
The "friend of the working people" will definitely trigger a recession very soon.
"Despite growth in disposable incomes, consumer confidence was subdued in the second half of 2024 and this weighed on industry-wide customer visits and expenditure. With good cost management in the final quarter the Board anticipates reporting a full year outcome for FY24 in line with its previous expectations.
Looking into 2025, employment costs will result in further overall cost inflation, although wage increases should provide support to consumers. |
BB,In a closed period til accounts but yes, they need to step up but obviously it's a mess, well know soon enough as to the magnitude. Absence of large insider buying in Q4 apart from initial dip has obviously strengthened the Bear position but as far as I'm aware none of the big boys are dumping. Loads of Paid would've been slaughtered by the 60% crash from £12 when first bombshell hit. Decimation of m/cap by 3bn from £14 high, that's incredible but we'l know more soon. |
Ten year low, Fitzgerald needs to either depart or put his money where his mouth is, he has been on the gravy train too long, thoroughly unscrupulous individual, and not to be trusted. This US fund that is in here heavy needs to step up to the plate also, initiate a buyout. |
To add. Buying its own shares and decreasing cash reserves is not logical so why are they continuing to do it ? They obviously believe that they're going to generate cash going forward. Last feed for me this morning :) |
I like this correct and blunt logic (kingston 78):
"Instead of building houses the company is buying its own shares at prices that are now falling. It is depleting its cash reserves." |
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